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Predictions 13-17 September 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Snow Blowey, Sep 6, 2017.

  1. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yr/EC also looking at snow on Saturday 16th
     
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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    The 2 periods of interest. First lot will see a downgrade IMO.
     
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC still similar to previous runs with slightly better heights . Perhaps not particularly well stacked IMO.
     
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Quite a contrast from previous runs .
     
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  5. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    OnTheSnow Showing some potential, lets hope it plays out! Cold air needs to arrive ASAP for this to be pulled off
     
  6. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Source: Weatherzone

    " Small top up on the way for ski resorts in cracker season
    Rob Sharpe, Saturday September 9, 2017 - 15:14 EST

    Australia's resorts are enjoying their best weekend in over a decade.

    Snow is deeper than 2 metres at multiple resorts and the skies are clearing and winds abating. For those planning to turn it into a long weekend, Monday should also be great with just the chance of a couple of showers, most likely in the afternoon.

    On Tuesday and early Wednesday it will be warmer, with some snow melt and patchy rain. However this is merely a precursor to a fresh snow event coming later on Wednesday and into Thursday. Another round of snowfalls is then due on Saturday, making sure that Sunday will be a great day on the slopes to round out another weekend. "

    Seems we will have some nice cold temps above 1600m IMO, Can anyone bring a EC or GFC update plz :)

     
  7. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    GFS Looking Good.. I think
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Extended date range to the 17th




     
  9. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Lol this is one of the best finishes to a snow season I can remember I reckon!!
    Two more solid winter blasts next week with more potential low level snow imo
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has evolved alot over the last couple of days.
    Looks like we're yet to see the season's peak depth yet. Hopefully we can sneak in few cms before SC depth is taken next week.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think this one on Wednesday is pretty much locked in now with all models in agreement.

    High over WA holds off enough to see some SW flow before the ridge sets in.
    We'll see some pre-frontal rain ahead of the cold air.
    I am less confident about Saturday for now, but following some rain I think we'll see 15-25cm for Wednesday/Thursday in the interim, atleast until Friday night, Saturday locks in. IMO.

    EC


    GFS
     
  12. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is :nerd: for the 13th this morning. And the 18th but that's too far out for GFS. Wowee, what a September. Weather and lots of it.
     
  13. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Snow-Forecast is broken I think
     
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  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    41.6cm to Friday night.
    23.3cm on Saturday.
    Looks like a 30-50cm event for Perisher, if Saturday holds. Looks nice.

    EC Wednesday and Thursday...

    EC Friday night and Saturday....
     
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS- Showing less prefrontal with the trough deepening as it reaches the coast.IMO
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Weekend 1500 freeze level looks better today IMO
     
    #66 Kletterer, Sep 10, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2017
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  17. Cookthebooks

    Cookthebooks Hard Yards

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    Baw Baw could see another very snowy period Friday night into Saturday, some strong SSW winds are on the cards!
     
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  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC and GFS loving Tassie for Friday IMO.
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Corn harvest may have to wait.
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Some healthy Vertical Velocity on the approach . Moisture (vapour transfer) looking ok at 700 hPa as well ( mid level cloud) Potential for some nice healthy plumes over the hills IMO.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS G Going for a clipper on Saturday, still not locked in IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking cold early Thursday AM. Coupled with diurnal lows, I think Southern Vic could see snow down to 600/700m, whilst CT's and Southern Tablelands could see snow above 900m, albeit light.
    GFS 00Z
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looks good for some blizzard conditions Thursday.
     
  24. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM going for possible snow In Katoomba on Thursday
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wednesday's hit on EC (00Z), pre-frontal looking a little lighter perhaps, with the colder air a few hours behind the front?
    [​IMG]

    Cold shot on Saturday AM looking quick. Can't see any big falls with the 1016-1020hPa pressure IMO.
    EC00Z
    [​IMG]
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep doesn't look like more than 5-10mm of prefrontal rain.
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Basic ingredients- Not too shabby thickness and virt temps. IMO.
     
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  28. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  29. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Most importantly , MCG forecast for the big game
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watch this front on Wednesday night blow temps out of the water with it's passing on Wednesday night.
    Towns in the BMs and Central Tablelands will feel like mid-summer Wednesday and followed mid-winter Thursday.

    BoM going for snow above 800m in the CTs Thursday, I think this will increase a bit as we edge closer.
     
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  31. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    just saw that
    wait for the media bs
     
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  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im seeing this (thurs) as a particularly borderline event for buller.
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    *but you ski hotham
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Certainly for the first half.
     
  35. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    **not on day trips
     
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  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im inclined to divide it into 5ths for buller, in the following sequence.

    Rain.
    Freezing Rain.
    Snow (sweet spot while its falling)
    Mizzle. Heavy, dripping trees and wet gear.
    Snow then clear. (Sweet spot during and after)

    *on current maps
     
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  37. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stirling... db?...gwinear?

    From my learned observations. Buller has a sweet spot measured in microns
    It's Australias Ruapehu... Without the epic altitude
     
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  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Direct hit from the SW is the only sure thing.
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't think those who skied Buller last Tuesday or Wednesday would agree with you.
    Buller doesn't get much sweetness, but when it does it is king.
     
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  40. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    FIFY
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see maybe 10cm of snow for Buller and s**tloads of r**n in between. Definitely not a season ender, but will probably end the season for the lower lifts. Not pretty at all. Glad I am up this weekend, not the next.

    The other major resorts will probably get a bit of a net gain from last week's system, looking at current forecasts.
     
  42. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bro pls.
    Buller has this odd parochial malaise
    Tues Wed are two days from 100 day season..
    Which at Buller. Is 800 days on average.
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Having ridden everywhere in Australia, I'll take those 2 days at buller over 20 similar ones at perisher.
    Alas, morning runs good for big 4. Buller be all buller with this system imo
     
  44. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    OT, but I think Donnas correct.
    The sweet spot for epicness is small.
     
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  45. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller
    Now until wednesday am 50mm -
    Wednesday late morning/pm 10-15 cm-
    Early Thursday am 10mm mizzle-
    Friday Rain 40mm
    Overnight friday/Saturday 20cm plus
    Sunday Clearing
     
    #95 The Plowking, Sep 11, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2017
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  46. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    just looked up work on yr.no for the week.. outdoor prac work planned for both Wed and thursday..... LOL
     
  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    four day rules looking decent.

    [​IMG]
     
  48. DbSki

    DbSki Old n' Crusty

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    How many of those days didn't have pea soup Buller fog.
    half a day, maybe a whole day at best.
     
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  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Snowy Minties

    [​IMG]
     
  50. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    *not a concern of mine :)
     
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