Predictions 13-17 September 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Snow Blowey, Sep 6, 2017.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS looking violent for this period.
    I think the back end may ridge out , however there is a sneaky chance of a Tasman low
     
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  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Of course there is.

    LOL
     
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  3. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM lowering the CT level to 700M for Thursday now.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This still looks like the going rate for Wed/Thurs (15-25cm) IMO.
    Snow down to ~900m in NSW, 700m in Vic Thursday.

    Saturday does look a little flukey, but all models staying with it here, including AXS. Another 15-25cm is likely across the majors for Fri/Sat IMO.
    Snow down to 800m in Vic, slightly higher in NSW resorts.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think they're a bit off there, perhaps GFS bias on that release?
    It will be relatively dry and EC indicating snow above 900m Thursday, the way I am reading it.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller/Baw Baw special on Thursday night. All other resorts will see half of what BB & Buller get Thursday eve IMO.
     
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  7. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    Will it be good to go down this weekend to perisher?
     
  8. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Charlotte Pass this mid October will be amazing if it keeps snowing all through September.
     
  9. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hard to tell on latest BOM update. Saturday might be snot and fog, Sunday should be good.

    I think we are back to the 24 hour rule. And until it's happening we won't know what will happen.

    Winter is nearly over ....
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Things should clear quickly on Saturday, but still . Sunday looks like an amazing day in the resorts as it currently stands IMO.
    Broad region of subsidence dominates SE Aus meaning fine mild weather for Sunday at this stage.
     
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  11. shauno

    shauno Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yep cant see any reason not to go. Should have a nice top up of fresh snow.
     
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  12. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Whats the rain looking like this week? Looking on yrno for hotham temps maybe a bit marginal on Friday night?
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, like Wednesday it's not looking like a pretty day on Friday below 1600m IMO.
     
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  14. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Gee access g looking really good for
    Southern vic Friday night/sat morning! Imo
    If it holds up could be some nice low level snow imo
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *Friday night:doh:
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS - lift ( in colours) -virtual potential temps and wind streamlines ( blue). Nice crossed lines. Not a sustained period but could be good for 10-15 cm IMO. About the same for Wed IMO.
     
  17. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Worth going up Thurs night?
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Precip looks good, but the temps on EC don't look amazing at 0 and -1 degrees for Buller over that night. If the winds are westerly, it's all rain. Though GFS features a nice SW change at midnight Sat morning.
     
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    3 day column for current predictions from the various sites and models.
     
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hotham? Maybe ;)
    Flip a coin for your home mountain though highly unlikely to be snow.

    I wouldn't even bank on Hotham for Friday.
    Reckon there will be rain between fronts everywhere.

    Saturday looking good ...atm
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah, change looks come through very late Friday night, rain ahead of the change.
    Looking ok for some decent falls before daybreak Saturday, with some Southerly influence IMO.
     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    What a shock
    GFS
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unsustainable with it centred over Adelaide.
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shark fin soup. Nice litle double headed low down south of Tassie tomorrow evening .
    I love those elongated developing lows. They are almost left movers . Me thinks AXS-R might have some moisture upgrades this arvo

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not often you see this thickness centred like this
    Thats a very well developed cold pool. 528 - Bullseye crookwell.
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The lazy cold shot- Bullseye-
     
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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  29. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Big precip totals on the latest BOM forecasts. How much of the 40-80mm is going to be rain up high?
     
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  30. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    15% .... at most IMO..closer to 10%
    I think those temps are wack.
     
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  31. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    On the sat pic the cold air approaching looks very underwhelming after the last three big ones.
     
  32. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow BOM had lowered NSW CTs to 600M Thursday morning!
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Melbourne BOM forecast

    Wednesday 13 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 11
    Max 16
    Showers.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Melbourne area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 600 metres at night. The chance of a thunderstorm from the late morning with possible hail. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning.


    Thursday 14 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 6
    Max 14
    Shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Melbourne area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 500 metres in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the southeast suburbs in the early morning with possible hail. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.
     
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  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah its bloody cold.
    Proper slingshot.
     
  35. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seriously? I wish it would just f*** off and let spring come.
     
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  36. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Is there a chance I could get a flurry
    In the strezlekis Wednesday night?
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You'd think a pretty good shot at it. IMO
     
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  38. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Would the timeframe be sort of from
    Around 6pm Wednesday to 6am Thursday period for best chance ?
     
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  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Take that rubbish to a non ski forum.
     
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  40. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ha! You don't have to live in it! Back on topic :out:
     
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  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like 98% of the topics ?
     
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  42. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Maybe some of you more learned can advise why BOM have conflicting wind reports between perisher forecast & meteye for Friday & Sat.


    Fri & Sat Perisher BOM wind forecast
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep. Perhaps to even a little later Thursday - looks cold until at least mid morning down there.
    IMO
     
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  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its either going to be Bloody windy or F..ken windy.
    Rule of thumb...it blows before it snows.
    As that front roars up from the south those isobars will tighten ...like a Tiger
     
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  45. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Units.

    The graphic is in Knots. The BOM forecast is km/hr.
     
  46. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Enough juice and cold enough to
    Settle do u think cc?
     
  47. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Yeah well that would do it! Thanks. :whistle:
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    perhaps at the highest points? Mt Tassie?
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Read further down the posts. One is in Knots, the other in KM/H
     
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  50. OuterLimits

    OuterLimits Hard Yards

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    Thanks, deleted.