Predictions 13-17 September 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Snow Blowey, Sep 6, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS & AXSR looking quite a bit cooler than EC with that cold pool. BoM backing the former.
     
  2. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Mt worth is highest peak closest to me
    At 550m.
    Mount tassie 750
    Ballook is about 660m
    Mt Hooghly 700m
     
  3. Cookthebooks

    Cookthebooks Hard Yards

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    Wednesday night into Saturday is going to be another great period up at the resorts, it's obviously not worthy of a blizzard of Aus tag but still good for 50cms IMO.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Best I can see for your area is snow to 600/700m, early Thursday AM IMO.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Did we get it?
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM did.
     
  7. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Not feeling the vibe for the 500m
    Forecasted level pow?
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *NSW BoM

    They sure did. Some very rogue numbers (namely Thredbo).
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think there's some good disparity between the models to suggest it's only a slim chance below 700m around Gippsland IMO.
    In and around the Strez, it's very moist around the time of the coldest air, which leads me to believe it lacks upper level depth (moisture-wise).
    Above all, much like Baw Baw, places like Mount Worth will struggle in a Westerly IMO.
     
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  10. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    More likely Saturday but even then I wouldn't hold your breath
     
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  11. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Thanks pow appreciate u and everyone
    Else's opinion :thumbs:
     
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  12. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I was actually going to state that I thought the Friday night/sat front looked
    A little colder and punchier?? Imo
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You seem to froth pretty hard on seeing some snow in odd Vicco places.

    HOT TIP: I would start noting down what sort of systems work for your area. I'll be frank, I've never been to the Stezleckis and as much as I'd love to visit the topographical, old-faithful google maps works enough to understand vaguely what it needs.
    Wind direction (@ ~925mb) and upper level temps (850mb/700mb/500mb temps) across various models 2-3 days out are what I would be looking at for now...
     
  14. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gippsland low level.....wants a direct hit front from the sw-ssw ....with a big stationary high in the bight .....quite often.
    Basically the Baw Baw systems.
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS not exactly bullish about moisture totals IMO

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sandy says, pressure high.

    Actually its not too bad.
    I reckon 15 to 20 then 10 to 15 the second one is reasonable expectation wise
     
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  17. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Your spot on pow, I love the lower level snowy systems there my favourite part of winter systems for mine.
    Due to the fact also that my place is at that 4-450m mark, so I probably look a little harder at those potential low level events that may drop snow down and around my elevation.
    I'm not totally up to speed with the specifics u posted above,but what I usually go on is the thickness lines and were they are placed in relation to my place. Going off past years, most of the time when we get 528thickness either near or over our area I at least see snow in the air.(usually lol)
     
  18. Floodman

    Floodman Hard Yards

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    Seems to be a bit of moisture on MetEye (but not much) and temps and thicknesses favourable for a few early flakes around sunrise in Bowral on Thursday. If so would be extraordinary after 24 degree max tomorrow.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It will be shock and awe for the populous of the NSW state IMO. No one I know has looked past tomorrow's forecast. It's gonna be hilarious.

    Even right up into the Northern Hunter Region... Barrington Tops going for Max of 23C tomorrow, with a max of 7C for Thursday (with snow in it's forecast). lols
     
  20. AJS

    AJS One of Us

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    Just a cheeky 34 degrees forecast for Syd eastern suburbs today.
     
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  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ha ha.
    Mid teen follow up?
     
  22. Kayden

    Kayden Hard Yards

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    Currently 5 degrees and top of 11 here in Sheffield area TAS, gotta love Tassie weather. What day do you guys think would be best to head up to Cradle Mt for snow?
     
  23. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    @Kayden I was up at Cradle Mountain yesterday. Lots of snow on the ground, more forecast today thru Saturday. Roads will be dicey, wouldn't go up before Sunday!
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going off GFS/EC & CMC, can't help but feel BoM are overly bullish on this cold pool for Vic & NSW tomorrow AM. They're on their own for snow fall levels if you ask me.

    GFS more aligned with EC now.
     
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  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wait for calls of "the weather has gone mad" later in the week. Even thought this happens every spring.
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It has
    Its like summer out there
    All the snow has melted
    Swimming today.
    Quick let me take a picture of a car thermometer.
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, seems optimistic.
     
  28. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Prospect of prefrontal seems to be diminishing rapidly.
     
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  29. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not down here, it doesn't. First time in September for at least 13 years that we've had regular decent falls.
     
  30. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I meant the warm NW winds ahead of a cold front. Bound he results in a news story on the weather being out of whack. You know, bushfires in northern NSW and snowfall in he south.

    Noticed the media in full swing this morning letting all the firebugs know today is a good day to light up.
     
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  31. Deanski

    Deanski Addicted

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    Relocate.
     
  32. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at BOM forecast for today, and the radar, looks like they are very wrong? Calling up to 80mm, which would surely not have been snow?
     
  33. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    In the plan.
     
  34. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    Is the consensus still for a sunny day up at Buller on Sunday? I know it is still a few days out... but being cheeky and asking.
     
  35. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenty of pre-frontal r*** here.
     
  36. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Satellite pic looks fairly promising,
    With some nice cold air starting to push
    Into Sw vic and plenty to come overnight imo
     
  37. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    Keen to hear latest forecasts for next few days. Looks like some conflicting data between models/forecasts.

    20mm rain prefrontal followed by 30cm @ 1500m in NSW. From now till end of play Saturday.
     
  38. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will happily take that for September
     
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  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Youd happily take it any time of year on a 1m plus base ;)
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I haven't seen much change since Sunday TBH.
    15-25cm across the majors tomorrow AM, followed by about the same Saturday AM. Today holds 5-10mm of rain IMO, probably a bit more over the course of Friday.
    Snow to ~700m (briefly down to 600m in the South) in VIC. Down to ~900m for NSW.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am guessing an error. It's inconsistent with other forecasts and nothing backs those sort of falls IMO
     
  42. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The Thredbo precip figure for today is so odd that it looks like a typo or something.
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep, as commented above.
     
  44. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ASX-R for friday-saturday. I see red again.
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS - Friday/Saturday precip totals
    [​IMG]
     
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  46. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I just like the song.
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just a nice dump (not in comparison to the last system though) for those above 1500-1600m IMO.
    Buller and the minor resorts won't bear so much fruit.

    Saturday.
     
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  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think Buller wont do so bad due to the Orinoco flow.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, should be sunny. Details to be sorted out.