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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Snow Blowey, Sep 6, 2017.
GFS & AXSR looking quite a bit cooler than EC with that cold pool. BoM backing the former.
Mt worth is highest peak closest to me
Mount tassie 750
Ballook is about 660m
Mt Hooghly 700m
Wednesday night into Saturday is going to be another great period up at the resorts, it's obviously not worthy of a blizzard of Aus tag but still good for 50cms IMO.
Best I can see for your area is snow to 600/700m, early Thursday AM IMO.
Did we get it?
Not feeling the vibe for the 500m
Forecasted level pow?
They sure did. Some very rogue numbers (namely Thredbo).
I think there's some good disparity between the models to suggest it's only a slim chance below 700m around Gippsland IMO.
In and around the Strez, it's very moist around the time of the coldest air, which leads me to believe it lacks upper level depth (moisture-wise).
Above all, much like Baw Baw, places like Mount Worth will struggle in a Westerly IMO.
More likely Saturday but even then I wouldn't hold your breath
Thanks pow appreciate u and everyone
I was actually going to state that I thought the Friday night/sat front looked
A little colder and punchier?? Imo
You seem to froth pretty hard on seeing some snow in odd Vicco places.
HOT TIP: I would start noting down what sort of systems work for your area. I'll be frank, I've never been to the Stezleckis and as much as I'd love to visit the topographical, old-faithful google maps works enough to understand vaguely what it needs.
Wind direction (@ ~925mb) and upper level temps (850mb/700mb/500mb temps) across various models 2-3 days out are what I would be looking at for now...
Gippsland low level.....wants a direct hit front from the sw-ssw ....with a big stationary high in the bight .....quite often.
Basically the Baw Baw systems.
GFS not exactly bullish about moisture totals IMO
Sandy says, pressure high.
Actually its not too bad.
I reckon 15 to 20 then 10 to 15 the second one is reasonable expectation wise
Your spot on pow, I love the lower level snowy systems there my favourite part of winter systems for mine.
Due to the fact also that my place is at that 4-450m mark, so I probably look a little harder at those potential low level events that may drop snow down and around my elevation.
I'm not totally up to speed with the specifics u posted above,but what I usually go on is the thickness lines and were they are placed in relation to my place. Going off past years, most of the time when we get 528thickness either near or over our area I at least see snow in the air.(usually lol)
Seems to be a bit of moisture on MetEye (but not much) and temps and thicknesses favourable for a few early flakes around sunrise in Bowral on Thursday. If so would be extraordinary after 24 degree max tomorrow.
It will be shock and awe for the populous of the NSW state IMO. No one I know has looked past tomorrow's forecast. It's gonna be hilarious.
Even right up into the Northern Hunter Region... Barrington Tops going for Max of 23C tomorrow, with a max of 7C for Thursday (with snow in it's forecast). lols
Just a cheeky 34 degrees forecast for Syd eastern suburbs today.
Mid teen follow up?
Currently 5 degrees and top of 11 here in Sheffield area TAS, gotta love Tassie weather. What day do you guys think would be best to head up to Cradle Mt for snow?
@Kayden I was up at Cradle Mountain yesterday. Lots of snow on the ground, more forecast today thru Saturday. Roads will be dicey, wouldn't go up before Sunday!
Going off GFS/EC & CMC, can't help but feel BoM are overly bullish on this cold pool for Vic & NSW tomorrow AM. They're on their own for snow fall levels if you ask me.
GFS more aligned with EC now.
Wait for calls of "the weather has gone mad" later in the week. Even thought this happens every spring.
Its like summer out there
All the snow has melted
Quick let me take a picture of a car thermometer.
Yeh, seems optimistic.
Prospect of prefrontal seems to be diminishing rapidly.
Not down here, it doesn't. First time in September for at least 13 years that we've had regular decent falls.
I meant the warm NW winds ahead of a cold front. Bound he results in a news story on the weather being out of whack. You know, bushfires in northern NSW and snowfall in he south.
Noticed the media in full swing this morning letting all the firebugs know today is a good day to light up.
Looking at BOM forecast for today, and the radar, looks like they are very wrong? Calling up to 80mm, which would surely not have been snow?
In the plan.
Is the consensus still for a sunny day up at Buller on Sunday? I know it is still a few days out... but being cheeky and asking.
Plenty of pre-frontal r*** here.
Satellite pic looks fairly promising,
With some nice cold air starting to push
Into Sw vic and plenty to come overnight imo
Keen to hear latest forecasts for next few days. Looks like some conflicting data between models/forecasts.
20mm rain prefrontal followed by 30cm @ 1500m in NSW. From now till end of play Saturday.
Will happily take that for September
Youd happily take it any time of year on a 1m plus base
I haven't seen much change since Sunday TBH.
15-25cm across the majors tomorrow AM, followed by about the same Saturday AM. Today holds 5-10mm of rain IMO, probably a bit more over the course of Friday.
Snow to ~700m (briefly down to 600m in the South) in VIC. Down to ~900m for NSW.
I am guessing an error. It's inconsistent with other forecasts and nothing backs those sort of falls IMO
The Thredbo precip figure for today is so odd that it looks like a typo or something.
yep, as commented above.
ASX-R for friday-saturday. I see red again.
GFS - Friday/Saturday precip totals
I just like the song.
Just a nice dump (not in comparison to the last system though) for those above 1500-1600m IMO.
Buller and the minor resorts won't bear so much fruit.
I think Buller wont do so bad due to the Orinoco flow.
Yep, should be sunny. Details to be sorted out.