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Predictions 13-17 September 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Snow Blowey, Sep 6, 2017.

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  1. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Massive discrepancy with gfs.
     
    #201 The Plowking, Sep 13, 2017
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Aldi Whorehouse Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cause GFS doesn't model that developing low the same...........
     
    #202 Donzah, Sep 13, 2017
  3. surfer1

    surfer1 Addicted

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    Eerily calm in Jindy
     
    #203 surfer1, Sep 13, 2017
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looking like 30mm between early Friday afternoon and mid morning Saturday. That's looking at EC
    But it's not going to be pretty below 1600m IMO
     
    #204 Claude Cat, Sep 13, 2017
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    FWIW Tonight though Saturday.
     
    #205 POW_hungry, Sep 13, 2017
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS is flirting with a clipper on the 18th.
     
    #206 Kletterer, Sep 14, 2017
  7. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    BOM is saying very high chance of another 20 to 60 cm then a freeze and then spring.IMO
     
    #207 TomGroggon, Sep 14, 2017
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM did a shit job on this system IMO. There's no way NSW CT's had anything remotely close to snow to 600m. Coupled with Thredbo TS forecasted 40-80cm yesterday would have had to have been the worst error/forecast I've seen from them in a long time.
     
    #208 POW_hungry, Sep 14, 2017
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  9. Floodman

    Floodman Hard Yards

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    There was snow to 800m at Bombala and around Jindabyne so their snow level in the south was not too far off, but the precip was way over cooked.
     
    #209 Floodman, Sep 14, 2017
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, but Bombala is far removed from the CT's. Both in height and geog.
     
    #210 POW_hungry, Sep 14, 2017
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    A realistic look at the models never really indicated more than 10 to 15 for said period .
     
    #211 Kletterer, Sep 14, 2017
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Never thought a realistic forecast was beyond reach IMO.
     
    #212 POW_hungry, Sep 14, 2017
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    The thing is both potential periods- Wed/ Thurs and Fri/ Sat were clearly not verticaly stacked low pressure systems. Cold is nice but not the only essential ingredient.
     
    #213 Kletterer, Sep 14, 2017
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thy point being is that you & I both see that. Not even at hours close did they come close IMO.
     
    #214 POW_hungry, Sep 14, 2017
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Certainly agree to that. Quite strange for the generally less volatile part of the season.
     
    #215 Kletterer, Sep 14, 2017
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  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    20-60 lol.
    Bom can't be bothered proper moisture forecast, throws out said figures
     
    #216 The Plowking, Sep 15, 2017
  17. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    The next 48 hours could be interesting for the NSW resorts.
     
    #217 DidSurfNowSki, Sep 15, 2017
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  18. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    Interesting in a good way?
     
    #218 blackice, Sep 15, 2017
  19. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    #219 DidSurfNowSki, Sep 15, 2017
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
    #220 POW_hungry, Sep 15, 2017
  21. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    Pow whats your view of next 36hrs? Been pretty warm all day in thredbo and doesnt really look like its gonna snow
     
    #221 Neslot, Sep 15, 2017
  22. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG][​IMG]


    For elevation 1365.
     
    #222 Alfred14, Sep 15, 2017
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will turn tonight.
    10-15 cm ish imo
     
    #223 The Plowking, Sep 15, 2017
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  24. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller do best imo.
    And worst of course to start...maybe
     
    #224 The Plowking, Sep 15, 2017
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    From what I understand it's been snowing above ~1600m for most of the day, which is how I envisaged it panning out. As far as the village goes, I don't think it's gonna get much at all IMO. Should see flakage by around 5-7am tomorrow.
    Thredbo should see 15-25cm, clearing by tomorrow eve.
    Sunday looks like a good day for a slide IMO.
     
    #225 POW_hungry, Sep 15, 2017
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  26. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    Yeah, ok, I'll call that a good way ❄️❄️⛄️
     
    #226 blackice, Sep 15, 2017
  27. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    I'll be on the obs thread tomorrow so will let you know
     
    #227 blackice, Sep 15, 2017
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  28. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Folks
    Is my reading of this right that tomorrow morning should be clear? Hoping to take the young fella for his first BC skinning morning and today was a bit wooly early so we have pencilled in tomorrow. Thoughts?
    Thredbo area. Well, Thredbo.
     
    #228 climberman, Sep 16, 2017
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  29. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let me know, heading off soon.
     
    #229 telecrag, Sep 16, 2017
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Other than the potential of localised fog it's looking clear. Perhaps some high level cloud though.
    Great day for it with the very light winds (~10-15knots) IMO
     
    #230 POW_hungry, Sep 16, 2017
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo
     
    #231 POW_hungry, Sep 16, 2017
  32. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks, hoping that holds!
     
    #232 climberman, Sep 16, 2017
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