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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Snow Blowey, Sep 6, 2017.
Massive discrepancy with gfs.
Cause GFS doesn't model that developing low the same...........
Eerily calm in Jindy
IMO looking like 30mm between early Friday afternoon and mid morning Saturday. That's looking at EC
But it's not going to be pretty below 1600m IMO
FWIW Tonight though Saturday.
GFS is flirting with a clipper on the 18th.
BOM is saying very high chance of another 20 to 60 cm then a freeze and then spring.IMO
BoM did a shit job on this system IMO. There's no way NSW CT's had anything remotely close to snow to 600m. Coupled with Thredbo TS forecasted 40-80cm yesterday would have had to have been the worst error/forecast I've seen from them in a long time.
There was snow to 800m at Bombala and around Jindabyne so their snow level in the south was not too far off, but the precip was way over cooked.
Yep, but Bombala is far removed from the CT's. Both in height and geog.
A realistic look at the models never really indicated more than 10 to 15 for said period .
Never thought a realistic forecast was beyond reach IMO.
The thing is both potential periods- Wed/ Thurs and Fri/ Sat were clearly not verticaly stacked low pressure systems. Cold is nice but not the only essential ingredient.
Thy point being is that you & I both see that. Not even at hours close did they come close IMO.
Certainly agree to that. Quite strange for the generally less volatile part of the season.
Bom can't be bothered proper moisture forecast, throws out said figures
The next 48 hours could be interesting for the NSW resorts.
Interesting in a good way?
Pow whats your view of next 36hrs? Been pretty warm all day in thredbo and doesnt really look like its gonna snow
For elevation 1365.
Will turn tonight.
10-15 cm ish imo
Buller do best imo.
And worst of course to start...maybe
From what I understand it's been snowing above ~1600m for most of the day, which is how I envisaged it panning out. As far as the village goes, I don't think it's gonna get much at all IMO. Should see flakage by around 5-7am tomorrow.
Thredbo should see 15-25cm, clearing by tomorrow eve.
Sunday looks like a good day for a slide IMO.
Yeah, ok, I'll call that a good way ❄️❄️⛄️
I'll be on the obs thread tomorrow so will let you know
Is my reading of this right that tomorrow morning should be clear? Hoping to take the young fella for his first BC skinning morning and today was a bit wooly early so we have pencilled in tomorrow. Thoughts?
Thredbo area. Well, Thredbo.
Let me know, heading off soon.
Other than the potential of localised fog it's looking clear. Perhaps some high level cloud though.
Great day for it with the very light winds (~10-15knots) IMO
Thanks, hoping that holds!