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Predictions 13-17 September 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Snow Blowey, Sep 6, 2017.

  1. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Massive discrepancy with gfs.
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cause GFS doesn't model that developing low the same...........
     
  3. surfer1

    surfer1 Addicted

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    Eerily calm in Jindy
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looking like 30mm between early Friday afternoon and mid morning Saturday. That's looking at EC
    But it's not going to be pretty below 1600m IMO
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    FWIW Tonight though Saturday.
     
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS is flirting with a clipper on the 18th.
     
  7. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    BOM is saying very high chance of another 20 to 60 cm then a freeze and then spring.IMO
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM did a shit job on this system IMO. There's no way NSW CT's had anything remotely close to snow to 600m. Coupled with Thredbo TS forecasted 40-80cm yesterday would have had to have been the worst error/forecast I've seen from them in a long time.
     
  9. Floodman

    Floodman Hard Yards

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    There was snow to 800m at Bombala and around Jindabyne so their snow level in the south was not too far off, but the precip was way over cooked.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, but Bombala is far removed from the CT's. Both in height and geog.
     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    A realistic look at the models never really indicated more than 10 to 15 for said period .
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Never thought a realistic forecast was beyond reach IMO.
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    The thing is both potential periods- Wed/ Thurs and Fri/ Sat were clearly not verticaly stacked low pressure systems. Cold is nice but not the only essential ingredient.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thy point being is that you & I both see that. Not even at hours close did they come close IMO.
     
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Certainly agree to that. Quite strange for the generally less volatile part of the season.
     
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  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    20-60 lol.
    Bom can't be bothered proper moisture forecast, throws out said figures
     
  17. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    The next 48 hours could be interesting for the NSW resorts.
     
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  18. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    Interesting in a good way?
     
  19. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  21. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    Pow whats your view of next 36hrs? Been pretty warm all day in thredbo and doesnt really look like its gonna snow
     
  22. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG][​IMG]


    For elevation 1365.
     
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will turn tonight.
    10-15 cm ish imo
     
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  24. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller do best imo.
    And worst of course to start...maybe
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    From what I understand it's been snowing above ~1600m for most of the day, which is how I envisaged it panning out. As far as the village goes, I don't think it's gonna get much at all IMO. Should see flakage by around 5-7am tomorrow.
    Thredbo should see 15-25cm, clearing by tomorrow eve.
    Sunday looks like a good day for a slide IMO.
     
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  26. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    Yeah, ok, I'll call that a good way ❄️❄️⛄️
     
  27. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    I'll be on the obs thread tomorrow so will let you know
     
  28. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Folks
    Is my reading of this right that tomorrow morning should be clear? Hoping to take the young fella for his first BC skinning morning and today was a bit wooly early so we have pencilled in tomorrow. Thoughts?
    Thredbo area. Well, Thredbo.
     
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  29. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let me know, heading off soon.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Other than the potential of localised fog it's looking clear. Perhaps some high level cloud though.
    Great day for it with the very light winds (~10-15knots) IMO
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks, hoping that holds!