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Predictions 14-19th June - Breaking The Back of the Block

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 4, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As the title suggests we're likely to be stuck in a blocking High pattern for the next 10 days. Beyond this ensembles show a reputable system to shift the block.

    Our next major opportunity of snow in the SE.

    Virtually all models suggest MJO is not much use to our region as the Eastern Pac and Atlantic start to light up, but nonetheless we could be in for a decent Rossby Wave to shunt some Eastward movement.

    EC ensembles showing a Bight peaker at the moment. Looking a little flakey IMO.


    GFS has certainly indicated interest but nothing more than LR sparks at the moment.
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ncep say.. Yep.
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I mean there’s a chance, but it heads downhill pretty quick:
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS serving us up an ECL this evening.... how lovely of them.
     
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  5. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Looks back on on GFS this morning
     
  6. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Howdy all, love the thread title and getting amongst dark blue circles.. like that GFS
     
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  7. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Jane bunn wasn’t overly optimistic for weather events over the next few weeks of June on her weather tonight.
    She’s thinking potentially a pretty dry June?
    But I’ll hang onto that above gfs chart for now
     
  8. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Hopefully the system digs in and can draw up a piggyback front from the south
     
  9. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    EC showing some interest
     
  10. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Some people on this website have found it tiresome but if you are not enthusing with gusto about possible good skiing and/ or surfing conditions possibly approaching and manifesting themselves then you may be in the wrong caper.
     
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  11. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not alignment as such but "something" there on all three models:


     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    season starter IMO
     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ensembles still showing that broad-based low.
    Moisture looks a little overstated on determenistics IMO, given it's all out the NW (with V little tropical feed). But the aiding factor here is that broad-based low offers varied and recycled levels of instability.
    Likely to drop 20-30cm in the date range IMO for now.


     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06z update tonight sides with a more neg-titled frontal system through the SE on the 15th.
    Can't be ignored or ruled out IMO.
     
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  17. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I will settle for that .
    :)
    We shall wait ,watch and see about June 15th Grasshopper .
    The four day rule means some clearer impression could be feasible by June 11th 2020.
     
  18. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn's automated forecasting and modelling now shows/predicts some pre frontal R*** on June 15th followed by some of the good stuff .
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You need to consider the synoptic set-up.
    It's all out of the NW.

    Lets wait for models to settle and agree before we speculate too much.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking much more frontal on EC's run this morning.
    Picks up alot of moisture from an East IO low and then draws in a lot of the tropics ahead of the main front as well.
    Could go either way yet.

    Early peaker not doing us any favours IMO. 50 knots @700mb just south of Albany says we'll see the residual.
     
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  21. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn's modelling does not look too good at present with much R*** and not much snow. . BOM seems to think some snow will fall but will it be of much use to skiers ? Or will it just be a dusting after the deluge?.
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham

    We shall wait and see as things unfold.
     
  22. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Yeah I’m not to sure about what this system will deliver?? I won’t make any judgment either way as I’ve learnt my lesson from the last system lol
    Will watch and wait
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS & CMC still with it, but not the deepest systems that could have been imagined.
    Still a decent (but reasonably quick) shot for snowfall.


    Tighter isobars on GFS delivering pretty nice results for 12-24 hours or so.
     
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  24. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z EC Cold cutoff ull.





     
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  25. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    As usual the automated forecasting from Ms. Bunn is leaping around but now shows zero snow for June 14-15th and a lot of the clear wet non skiable variety of precipitation.
    I am led to believe that her automated modelling and mid range forecasting is based on the European Centre 's modelling (EC /Eric Clapton's weather forecasts!! ;-P) .

    Is that right?
     
  26. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    Just look out your window and see what the weather is doing. That's all we do around here. Why listen to - Deleted by Moderator
     
  27. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s what I used to do when I lived in the mountains as well.

    But it’s a bit different when you’re in the city and need to plan your trips. I did it to perfection in 2018 largely thanks to YR.no which uses the EC model, same as Jane.
     
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Stay on Topic . This is a predictions thread. Posts questioning alternate forecasters accuracy will not be tolerated.
     
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  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Why come into a predictions thread then....
     
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  30. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am not just frothing like a madman.I will save that for my trip reports!. I am asking questions so I can learn more about this kind of forecasting and plan my trips out of the city for XC skiing accordingly.
     
  31. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    This morning gfs has the first front sort of slide through which may give us some snow(I think with some rain in and around that as well)imo
    But there looks to be a nice looking front/low to charge up behind the first front only to be kept south over tassie by ridging high imo
     
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  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got the look of a se slider to me.
    LWT node too far West
     
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This.
    Peaked.
    Just wet and too warm on these dates.
     
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  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Im not sold on that progression. I think there will be a mild upgrade but not enough for a significant event.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #negativelytilted
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Yes. The Southern 250 hPa anoms/ flow just seems to be rather messy progression to me.
     
  37. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM today said they expect 10-20 cm of snow in the major resorts with this system but I am not convinced. It looks too wet and too warm at present.

    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham

    Ms.Bunn's modelling looks like R***
    and
    NO snow at present.
     
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    15cm sting in the tail type upgrade maybe
     
  39. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good dam filling potential for central and northern inland NSW. Much need. Vibe has gone from this season fr me. Can rain or snow or both.
     
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  40. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Hopefully the pattern settles down a bit toward the end of June and then we can get stuck into some more normal winter fronts pushing through.
     
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  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Any skiing done in June is a bonus . Ditto for May and late spring.
     
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  42. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Still some support from global models atm. Not easy with predictions in early june and never is. Now the sio has tanked the shem weather patterns may now become more settled with predictions as pressure begins to rise again around Tahiti and winter rolls on with the global models predicting broad scale weather patterns more accurate.


















     
  43. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO I think we're seeing the models sway towards a Tasman low type system.
    Common in June's past.
    This winter has a different feel than recent.
    Stronger onshore winds on the NSW coast.
    Less gusty offshores.

    Just a hunch.
     
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  44. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Precipitation and 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies.Atm are on the same page as you and see a tasman low.





















    From the 12th the model suggests a broad scale blocking ridge building out in the indo. .
     

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  45. Ijay

    Ijay Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'll gladly take a Tasman low and some rain at this time of year, still too dry down here Bega ways.
    There'll still be snow for skiing as the season progresses.
     
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  46. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Looks to be squashed by the ridge according to gfs this arvo imo
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z confirms the flattening by the ridge for this system (ATM).
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM remains hopeful in the location forecasts, but alas you can expect they haven't taken into consideration the 00z run.
    Should be downgraded tomorrow, you'd anticipate.

    Some reasonable agreement in the models is there this evening IMO.
    [​IMG]

     
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  50. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS OOZ main difference it showed the front moving over @13th-14, so it just shifted the time frame back on the run.



     
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