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Predictions 14-19th June - Breaking The Back of the Block

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 4, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Inline with EC.
    Saturday, 13th June 10pm:
     
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  2. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM have issued this forecast for Falls Creek.
    It looks too warm .

    Saturday 13 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 4
    Showers increasing.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Winds northerly 25 to 40 km/h tending northwesterly 30 to 40 km/h later.

    Sunday 14 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 2
    Max 3
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h tending westerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

    Monday 15 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 2
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
     
  3. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms. Bunn's Mt. Stirling Forecast at present looks like water skiing and mountain biking/ bushwalking only.

    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-stirling

    Buller/Stirling's BOM forecast looks slightly more promising. Keep in mind that Baw Baw got nothing on Monday 1/6/20 and Falls Creek/BHP road was XC skiable on 2/6/20.
    Sunday 14 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 2
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h tending westerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

    Monday 15 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 2
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
     
  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    CMC had it over west vic @21z








     
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  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    06z GFS held serve.





     
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  6. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks real flat. Zonal belt.
    I have my doubts it will present like that in June.
    That looks like a August shape.
     
  7. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    06z Icon run had a developing low just behind the front.





    Pretty much looks a complex low on the plot.
     
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  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Upper flow still not giving assistance to pushing a mediocre cold mass imo. Agree with Donza on the Zonal behavior atm.
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still might be able to get some cold air and snow on the backend.
     
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  10. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Alas . EC is as flat as a pancake.
    Wake me in 2 weeks plus.
     
  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12z runs canuck /ukmet











    Neither was ridged out.
     
  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    100% correct atm, Going off the current consensus of global models.

     
  13. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM have now revised their predicted snowfall totals from this weather system to 5-10 cm . In other words let us look at the system that is predicted to arrive on June 22nd.
    Ms.Bunn's modelling for Hotham is still saying zero snow.
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Need something bigger than a few days to change this pattern.
     
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  15. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I have been a froth free zone about this weather system from the outset.
    Oh grand poo bar of the snow Gods ,Give us something solid to froth about and to help build a proper base for snow sports!
    BOM have issued this forecast for Mt. Hotham a.k.a Hot Ham .
    Saturday 13 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 3
    Showers or snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers or snow, most likely later in the day. Winds northerly 35 to 50 km/h tending northwesterly 35 to 45 km/h later.

    Sunday 14 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 2
    Snow showers. Wind easing.
    Possible rainfall: 8 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h turning southwesterly 20 to 25 km/h later.

    Monday 15 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 1
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers. Winds southwesterly 20 to 25 km/h tending northwest to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.

    The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Tuesday.


    Not worth the 5-6 hour drive IMHO for XC plank action.

    Can we start the June 22nd weather system thread please?
     
  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    @ more than 300hrs lead time, you cant expect any confidence at all. Pie in the sky range.
     
  17. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on Topic.
    @Mister Tee on XC Skis continue to post derailing, off-topic posts and you will be moderated accordingly.
     
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom four day has potential.
     
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS on the other hand losing cold air this run, maybe some snow on peaks, but largely rain.
     
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  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    CMC OOZ /ICON









    12Z RUN 8TH.
     
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  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Bom's plot is showing the cold front that was pointed to by global troposphere theta modeling quite a few runs back. Bom 4 day is ec. So you can say the its showing the same as what the GFS theta plots that were posted.


     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like lots of love for WA, perhaps slipping away when it gets to the eastern seaboard. Pretty normal this time of year.
    Perhaps those follow-on fronts shown in the Saturday 10pm plot might come into play.
     
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This.
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like the inland troughs over desert country
     
  26. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great weather for...

    [​IMG]
     
  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Old school liked it to.
     
  28. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM are not heavily backing this weather system for much snow now. They have revised their forecast for Mt. Hotham.
    Melbourne's forecasted temperatures for this period are much too warm.
    Saturday 13 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 3
    Showers or snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers or snow, most likely in the evening. Winds northerly 30 to 40 km/h increasing to 40 to 50 km/h during the morning then tending northwesterly during the afternoon.

    Sunday 14 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 2
    Snow showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers, most likely during the morning. Winds northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h tending westerly 25 to 30 km/h during the morning.

    Monday 15 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 2
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h.

    Tuesday 16 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 3
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 20 to 25 km/h.
     
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  29. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    Ms.Bunn 's forecasting still says NO SNOW!
    BOM are not backing any substantial snow falls either for Mt. Hotham.
    Saturday 13 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 3
    Showers or snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers or snow, most likely in the evening. Winds northerly 30 to 40 km/h increasing to 40 to 50 km/h during the morning then tending northwesterly during the afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Sunday 14 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 2
    Snow showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers, most likely during the morning. Winds northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h tending westerly 25 to 30 km/h during the morning.

    Monday 15 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 2
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h.

    Tuesday 16 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 3
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 20 to 25 km/h.
     
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Its trying, but looks mostly prefrontal. Looks like one of those classic net loss / gain kind of charts that we use to have a few years ago.

    [​IMG]
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO, I'm not seeing anything other than a little rain for Vic resorts out of this.
     
  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Bom thinking atm.


    ..............................................................................................................................................
    My thinking is
    likely just light dusting. Or a tad better if the small cold pool can pass over @ the right time.
     
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  33. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe a smidge above 1800m but even that looks unlikely based on these:

     
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  34. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn cannot see any snow of consequence to skiers falling at Baw Baw either.
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
    Baw Baw skiers can put the ski wax away .
    BOM have made this forecast for Baw Baw.
    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Saturday 13 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 6
    Possible shower.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 40% [​IMG]
    West and South Gippsland area
    Mostly sunny morning. The chance of morning fog near the coast. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely in the evening. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between zero and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 17.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 1 [Low]

    Sunday 14 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 4
    Showers or snow at times.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    West and South Gippsland area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Snow possible above 1600 metres. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h tending northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 15.

    Monday 15 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 5
    Possible shower.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 40% [​IMG]
    Tuesday 16 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 2
    Max 5
    Possible shower.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Wednesday 17 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 6
    Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 30% [​IMG]
    The next routine forecast will be issued at 5:40 am EST Thursday.
     
    #84 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Jun 10, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2020
  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The small cold pool on the plot discussed above.
     
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  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I see
    I see widespread Showers across NSW associated with the Prefrontal part, with possibilities of sustained snow showers on the highest peaks above 6500 ft, then a little bit of snow to 5000 ft through Sunday.[​IMG]
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks slightly better on EC this morning.
    Perhaps a few snow-showers after the (little) rain on Sunday morning.
    A dusting Monday/Tuesday.
    IMO
     
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  38. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just a brief showing @ the global models thinking atm. They all mostly see the cold pool.






























    What and where looks to be all depended on that cold pools timing and placement.







     
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  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Bom Charts show a fairly big cold front, but sliding. Lots of energy and potential for upgrades.

    [​IMG]
     
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  40. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS 00Z run still thinking a cold pool moving east.
















    CMC 00Z. same cold pool.






     
  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM stated this morning that a dusting of snow could occur above 1700 M. . That does not inspire me to do any frothing at present.
     
  42. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    10-15cm at Thredbo Top station IMO
    MR should see 20-25
    Perisher may luck out if the winds are right and get 15cm plus
    Thundersnow chance.
    Nice little upgrade.
     
  43. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms Bunn is now suggesting 8 cm for Hotham and 3 cm for Baw Baw.
    It is not worth the drive from the city at present.
    15 cm is IMHO worth the drive for XC skiing.

    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    NEXT 7 DAYS
    Mt Buller: 6cm
    Mt Hotham: 10cm
    Falls Creek: 4cm
    Mt Baw Baw: 3cm
    Perisher: 8cm
    Thredbo: 9cm
    Charlotte Pass: 13cm
    Selwyn: cm
    Lake Mountain: 0cm
    Mt Stirling: cm
    Ben Lomond: cm
    Mt Mawson: cm

    BOM
    are suggesting some kind of snow will fall at Hotham....
    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Mt. Hotham

    Saturday 13 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 3
    Late showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Mostly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely at night. Winds northerly 40 to 55 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Sunday 14 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 1
    Snow showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Monday 15 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 2
    Showers or snow.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers or snow. Winds northwesterly 30 to 35 km/h.

    Tuesday 16 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 2
    Max 3
    Showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds northwesterly 25 to 30 km/h tending westerly during the day.

    Wednesday 17 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 5
    Partly cloudy.
    Chance of any rain: 20% [​IMG]
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO the moisture is almost entirely prefrontal.
    EC run this afternoon does not look useful for snow.
     
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  45. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Marquise de Kappy likes this.
  46. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  47. zach!

    zach! Early Days

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    What website is this from?
     
  48. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  49. ecowain

    ecowain One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  50. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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