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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 4, 2020.
Any ways GFS 18z
Edited plot2. Plot is the when GFS is thinking 540dam is over the alps with some moisture in the forecast time.
buller wind forecast.
Just leave here now. You can follow the fronts progression on sat-pic /radar now.
Some nice speckle cloud just behind it.;
The Cfront ⇧
That's a walled ridge if ever I saw one, on the BoM synoptic plot.
The front has a decent go at shoving it.
A fair chance of snow down to ~600m for Southern Tas on Tuesday arvo/evening IMO.
Some funky troughs laying around the continent.
BoM Tas siding with 800m for SW Tas (Tuesday) for now.
Is this first front starting to do it's job and open up a bit more room for the following front - now coming into view on the 10 dayer?
A lot of uncertainty in the models >120 hours.
This frontal system in the bight has just peaked in the Eucla.
Expect a wintery mix tomorrow night, with some heavy falls early Sunday AM.
5-10cm above 1800m IMO.
Next Friday has a lot of divergence on the models and can be discussed in the BBQ thread for now.
EC/YrNo with some impressive falls rates early Sunday AM.
There's a sweet spot for sure.
...And here's why we won't see much (if any) accumulation below 1800m (near Freeze Level) IMO.
Small slug of cold air on AXS-C - the highest res model we've got:
Some decent snow showers above 1700-1800m imo for Sunday night into Monday for VIC
Monday for NSW:
Showers expected until Tuesday, but temperatures will rise by then, leaving rain for most of the Alps.
Nonetheless a decent moist (but not very cold) system apart from that brief pocket of cold air (OCF):
Feels like September
18z -access c temps forecast in that cold slug.
OBS thread is up: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/13-18th-jun-system-obs.87816/
Forecasts remain here and on-topic.
What does access C look like for 4 am AEST 14th June. Will we get enough cold air before the showers stop.
I kind of miss those rainy prefrontal parts of the systems after the fires this year. There has not been many prefrontal rain periods in winter for almost 3 years.
Marginal for the resorts until about 4/5am.
Wintery mix below 1800m until about 4am where Vic will start to see the first of the colder air.
OCF moisture from 4am tomorrow:
BOM SW TAS:
EC progging -34ºC uppers on Tuesday arvo.
Extremely cold airmass, that one. Def a chance of snow lower than 700m IMO.
Southern Tas, via BoM.
Got there in the end.
400/500m snowfall on Southern regions of Tas tomorrow early evening IMO.
Freeze Level ~800m with -36C in the uppers @ 7pm. Stacked moisture
Nothing heavy but it's extraordinarily cold.
Melaleuca, Tas Sounding (GFS):
...And there we have it:
BoM Tas SWW in place: http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/warnings/bushwalker.shtml
My kind of system this one! Hopefully this winter we will see one similar to this push through southern vic