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Predictions 14-19th June - Breaking The Back of the Block

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 4, 2020.

  1. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  2. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Any ways GFS 18z




    Edited plot2. Plot is the when GFS is thinking 540dam is over the alps with some moisture in the forecast time.




    buller wind forecast.



     
    #102 stormkite2000, Jun 12, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2020
  3. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just leave here now. You can follow the fronts progression on sat-pic /radar now.



    Some nice speckle cloud just behind it.;



    The Cfront ⇧





     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's a walled ridge if ever I saw one, on the BoM synoptic plot.
    The front has a decent go at shoving it.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A fair chance of snow down to ~600m for Southern Tas on Tuesday arvo/evening IMO.
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some funky troughs laying around the continent.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is this first front starting to do it's job and open up a bit more room for the following front - now coming into view on the 10 dayer?
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A lot of uncertainty in the models >120 hours.
    This frontal system in the bight has just peaked in the Eucla.
    Expect a wintery mix tomorrow night, with some heavy falls early Sunday AM.
    5-10cm above 1800m IMO.

    Next Friday has a lot of divergence on the models and can be discussed in the BBQ thread for now.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC/YrNo with some impressive falls rates early Sunday AM.
     
  11. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's a sweet spot for sure.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...And here's why we won't see much (if any) accumulation below 1800m (near Freeze Level) IMO.
    Small slug of cold air on AXS-C - the highest res model we've got:
     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some decent snow showers above 1700-1800m imo for Sunday night into Monday for VIC
    Monday for NSW:


    Showers expected until Tuesday, but temperatures will rise by then, leaving rain for most of the Alps.

    Nonetheless a decent moist (but not very cold) system apart from that brief pocket of cold air (OCF):
     
  14. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feels like September
     
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  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    18z -access c temps forecast in that cold slug.






     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    SMSkier and Claude Cat like this.
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    What does access C look like for 4 am AEST 14th June. Will we get enough cold air before the showers stop.

    I kind of miss those rainy prefrontal parts of the systems after the fires this year. There has not been many prefrontal rain periods in winter for almost 3 years.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Marginal for the resorts until about 4/5am.
    Wintery mix below 1800m until about 4am where Vic will start to see the first of the colder air.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF moisture from 4am tomorrow:
     
  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM SW TAS:
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC progging -34ºC uppers on Tuesday arvo.
    Extremely cold airmass, that one. Def a chance of snow lower than 700m IMO.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Southern Tas, via BoM.
    Got there in the end.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    400/500m snowfall on Southern regions of Tas tomorrow early evening IMO.
    Freeze Level ~800m with -36C in the uppers @ 7pm. Stacked moisture
    Nothing heavy but it's extraordinarily cold.

    Melaleuca, Tas Sounding (GFS):
    [​IMG]
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...And there we have it:
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM Tas SWW in place: http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/warnings/bushwalker.shtml
     
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  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    My kind of system this one! Hopefully this winter we will see one similar to this push through southern vic