Predictions 14-21st July

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Strong long wave support in this date range, with the possibility of some small top-ups in the dates leading up to 15-19th date range.
Showing on both EC Ensembles and GFS, it's got a start IMO.

The amplitude at long range is showing big potential for big falls around Friday/Saturday 16/17th.

EC Ensembles
Screen Shot 2021-07-04 at 9.00.42 am.png

850mb temp (Ec Ensembles)
Screen Shot 2021-07-04 at 9.00.28 am.png


GFS
1625353077328.png

1625353206013.png
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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If the 18z GFS forecast comes true (and we are allowed out of Sydney, I will buy everyone multiple beers. It’s a bit unicorn ish, but it’s so unbelievably impressive
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_fh282-384.gif
Yep, won't be hanging my hat on that.
To limit the highs and lows of LR GFS model watching I'd be focusing on the anomaly of the upper level signal rather than the MSL synoptic arrangement.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
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EC run for 13 July has it a little west but with a phenomenal fetch right down to the depths of Antarctica. Just hope all that goodness is not wasted over in WA.


EC 13 June.png
That system will peak, subside and slide SE as usual (hence not in the date range).
The piggy backing low has not even formed on that prog.

These plots are deterministic runs at crazy lead-times, so virtually useless to reference at +200 hours IMO.
 

toddler

Hard Yards
May 16, 2009
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With a bit of luck it will intensify at this time of year...anything could change for the better...we are due for a nice blizzard...4 dayer would be suffice
 

Guthega Girl

One of Us
Sep 6, 2004
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Eagerly awaiting this one.. need to make the call on skiing Hotham or Buller on the 21/22nd... keeping my eyes peeled on the YR predic as if Buller gets a good whack of snow its tipping that way !
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Nov 26, 2014
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EC 12Z had the Jetstream positioned further South and i think that may have spooked GFS- imo.
 
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