Predictions 14-21st July

The Fallen

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 7, 2015
922
1,574
263
Central Coast
Updated and still looking good.

Perfect angle to feed off the Tassy 1.5c SST anomaly for the southerns

1626577052955.png
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Snow possible to 600m through Central & Eastern Vic IMO.
Circa 10pm-1am Tuesday/Wednesday.

500m isn't even out of the question, but I doubt BOM will go that low.
BoM went there, BTW:

Tuesday 20 July​

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Snow level lowering from 1200 metres to around 500 metres by evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Possible hail in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h turning west to southwesterly during the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 15.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Homer and snowgum
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Meanwhile BoM NSW pump the tires on this final shortwave.
With a 20-35mm chance for Snowy Resorts.

IMO FWIW, I still think there's 15-20cm on the table for NSW resorts. Possibly more for Baw Baw & Buller.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CarveMan

Winterwolf

One of Us
Jun 2, 2019
143
290
163
I'll hopefully be heading to Thredbo Thursday to report on the result of all this. For those of us in the Southern Highlands the wind switch to the south early Wednesday is a good set up for snow here. Thicknesses look ok and there's a wee bit of moisture as well. Might be a little wet snow surprise early AM for Robertson and possibly Bowral and Moss Vale.
 
  • Like
Reactions: POW Hungry

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
I'll hopefully be heading to Thredbo Thursday to report on the result of all this. For those of us in the Southern Highlands the wind switch to the south early Wednesday is a good set up for snow here. Thicknesses look ok and there's a wee bit of moisture as well. Might be a little wet snow surprise early AM for Robertson and possibly Bowral and Moss Vale.
From 4am- 11am Wednesday, won't be a problem snowing to 800m IMO.
Just have to chase the moisture on the radar IMO. Robertson a chance.

MV, Bowral would have to be very lucky/fluky though, I reckon.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Winterwolf

Winterwolf

One of Us
Jun 2, 2019
143
290
163
From 4am- 11am Wednesday, won't be a problem snowing to 800m IMO.
Just have to chase the moisture on the radar IMO. Robertson a chance.

MV, Bowral would have to be very lucky/fluky though, I reckon.
Thanks POW! There's plenty of hills over 800m locally including one just one km from my back yard, so a snow chase won't be that hard to do, even if covid restrictions come in to limit movement. I'll take pics if anything comes to pass.
 
  • Like
Reactions: POW Hungry

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
I note AXS-C puts 50-60mm of precip. bullseye on Charlottes Pass by Tomorrow 10pm.
In my experience, AXS-C is overly-bullish on orographic precip, so you can bring that back ~30% for a realistic outcome.

So that's a reasonable chance of 30-40cm on CP/Perisher by Wednesday, at my guestimate.
Tomorrow 5pm-7pm Looks ON for the Main Range - Frontal feature through MR around 5pm.
 

snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
6,167
4,701
563
55
vic
This model shows that Vic southern mountains and those south and south east of the divide do OK for a change - they tend to miss from NW systems:

Ie. Lake Mtn, Baw Baw, Snowy Plains, Cobberas and Tingyringy. (Best guess for the latter)
 

Partic

Hard Yards
Aug 20, 2012
19
13
53
I'd be interested in any recommendations of where to ski on Wednesday with regard to the wind. I'm staying in Jindabyne, so really Thredbo and Perisher et al are the options. I lost most of one of my two days skiing last year because of wind hold at Blue cow and would quite like to avoid that fate this year.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
I'd be interested in any recommendations of where to ski on Wednesday with regard to the wind. I'm staying in Jindabyne, so really Thredbo and Perisher et al are the options. I lost most of one of my two days skiing last year because of wind hold at Blue cow and would quite like to avoid that fate this year.
Hey @Partic I wouldn’t be expecting windhold on Wednesday with only moderate 30-55km/h winds.
As for where to ski try the Perisher thread.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Partic

Outlooker

One of Us
Mar 20, 2003
1,043
581
363
Northern Beaches, Sydney
I note AXS-C puts 50-60mm of precip. bullseye on Charlottes Pass by Tomorrow 10pm.
In my experience, AXS-C is overly-bullish on orographic precip, so you can bring that back ~30% for a realistic outcome.

So that's a reasonable chance of 30-40cm on CP/Perisher by Wednesday, at my guestimate.
Tomorrow 5pm-7pm Looks ON for the Main Range - Frontal feature through MR around 5pm.
Just in time for night skiing at Perisher!!! Best take Skitube.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
While we're at it BoM really needs to up the precip of Buller too.
Currently 15-20mm chance in Forecast. Should be closer to the 20-30mm chance IMO.
Vic BOM went for 10-30mm chance for tomorrow @ Buller.
Decent chance of BoM upping precip for the SM region too, IMO.
Currently 20-35mm chance on Peri & Thredbo ATM.
No change here.
 
  • Like
Reactions: snowgum

Snowmaker7

One of Us
Jul 25, 2013
402
1,089
263
Bowral, NSW
Roads will be hairy tomorrow morning heading up from Jindy. Snow to Lake level from later this evening and getting heavier at times overnight when wind switches southerly IMO
 

BlueHue

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 17, 2003
3,150
3,051
363
46
South of Cooma
Roads will be hairy tomorrow morning heading up from Jindy. Snow to Lake level from later this evening and getting heavier at times overnight when wind switches southerly IMO
I've been wondering if good snow will make lake level in Jindy this evening. Ingredients are there but to my eye a freeze level low enough to bring a settling to lake level will arrive about the time the moisture dries up. It does have a solid southerly fetch by evening which is generally the best way to milk a snow event in Jindabyne if moisture is getting limited.
 

snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
6,167
4,701
563
55
vic
Would Olinda be a likely target for some snow today or is it just a smidge too low?
May be a smidge low, it’s in the 5s C at Ball @450m, Ferny Creek in 5s and it’s slowly cooling. MT William is <0C too.

Maybe in the coldest spells tonight? It might fall (v wet) but probably not settle. Overdue a light cover?
 
  • Like
Reactions: POW Hungry
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass