BoM went there, BTW:Snow possible to 600m through Central & Eastern Vic IMO.
Circa 10pm-1am Tuesday/Wednesday.
500m isn't even out of the question, but I doubt BOM will go that low.
Tuesday 20 JulyCloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Snow level lowering from 1200 metres to around 500 metres by evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Possible hail in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h turning west to southwesterly during the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 15.
From 4am- 11am Wednesday, won't be a problem snowing to 800m IMO.I'll hopefully be heading to Thredbo Thursday to report on the result of all this. For those of us in the Southern Highlands the wind switch to the south early Wednesday is a good set up for snow here. Thicknesses look ok and there's a wee bit of moisture as well. Might be a little wet snow surprise early AM for Robertson and possibly Bowral and Moss Vale.
Thanks POW! There's plenty of hills over 800m locally including one just one km from my back yard, so a snow chase won't be that hard to do, even if covid restrictions come in to limit movement. I'll take pics if anything comes to pass.From 4am- 11am Wednesday, won't be a problem snowing to 800m IMO.
Just have to chase the moisture on the radar IMO. Robertson a chance.
MV, Bowral would have to be very lucky/fluky though, I reckon.
Hey @Partic I wouldn’t be expecting windhold on Wednesday with only moderate 30-55km/h winds.I'd be interested in any recommendations of where to ski on Wednesday with regard to the wind. I'm staying in Jindabyne, so really Thredbo and Perisher et al are the options. I lost most of one of my two days skiing last year because of wind hold at Blue cow and would quite like to avoid that fate this year.
Just in time for night skiing at Perisher!!! Best take Skitube.I note AXS-C puts 50-60mm of precip. bullseye on Charlottes Pass by Tomorrow 10pm.
In my experience, AXS-C is overly-bullish on orographic precip, so you can bring that back ~30% for a realistic outcome.
So that's a reasonable chance of 30-40cm on CP/Perisher by Wednesday, at my guestimate.
Tomorrow 5pm-7pm Looks ON for the Main Range - Frontal feature through MR around 5pm.
Vic BOM went for 10-30mm chance for tomorrow @ Buller.While we're at it BoM really needs to up the precip of Buller too.
Currently 15-20mm chance in Forecast. Should be closer to the 20-30mm chance IMO.
No change here.Decent chance of BoM upping precip for the SM region too, IMO.
Currently 20-35mm chance on Peri & Thredbo ATM.
I've been wondering if good snow will make lake level in Jindy this evening. Ingredients are there but to my eye a freeze level low enough to bring a settling to lake level will arrive about the time the moisture dries up. It does have a solid southerly fetch by evening which is generally the best way to milk a snow event in Jindabyne if moisture is getting limited.Roads will be hairy tomorrow morning heading up from Jindy. Snow to Lake level from later this evening and getting heavier at times overnight when wind switches southerly IMO
May be a smidge low, it’s in the 5s C at Ball @450m, Ferny Creek in 5s and it’s slowly cooling. MT William is <0C too.Would Olinda be a likely target for some snow today or is it just a smidge too low?