Predictions 14-21st July

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Some good alignment between EC and GFS this morning.
Subject to possible ridging IMO.

As it stands 40-60cm system above 1600m.

GFS
3D350555-8489-4EF4-BE85-C0E3E4595583.png
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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The ECMWF has held a steady prognosis on this morning's run. I like it.
Areas above 1600 M. will benefit the most such as : Falls Ck. , Hotham and the upper section of Mt. Stirling as well as the Horn road on Mt. Buffalo.

NEXT 7 DAYS​

Mt Buller: 39-57cm

Mt Hotham: 37-63cm

Falls Creek: 32-47cm

Mt Baw Baw: 11-18cm

Perisher: 54-69cm

Thredbo: 59-67cm

Charlotte Pass: 87-99cm

Selwyn: 35cm

Lake Mountain: 15cm

Mt Stirling: 34-60cm

Ben Lomond: 9cm

Mt Mawson: 5cm


BOM are seeing something in the snow department too.


I will be interested to see how low the snow falls at Mt. Stirling by Sunday July 18th . It is really game on when they get 10 cms at TBJ at 1270 M ASL.
 

Young Angus

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Oct 14, 2018
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Jane’s email snow forecast was very exciting this morning and it seems to be getting reflected here…so this is very exciting to see come together hopefully it holds and keeps getting little upgrades.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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The BOM are forecasting between 53mm and 88mm for Falls creek between the 12th and the 16th July (I did some arithmetic). If that is the lead in to what is being predicted in this 15th - 19th window then OMG I am getting excited..... (I arrive at Falls on the 23rd for three weeks so please excuse my froth)
Incorrect.
The BOM forecast reads 50% chance of your lower number. 25% chance of your upper number.
 

robbo mcs

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...actually it's 50% chance of more than the lower number and 25% chance of more than the higher number.
Pedants LOL I’ll happily take any of those numbers;)
Seriously though, for those that are not familiar with it, the BOM’s range is confusing.
Frequently on FB you see people add up several days of the lower number, and say we are going to get that at a minimum. Err no, chance of exceeding the lower number multiple days in a row is actually quite low.
 
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lewis

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Pedants LOL I’ll happily take any of those numbers;)
Seriously though, for those that are not familiar with it, the BOM’s range is confusing.
Frequently on FB you see people add up several days of the lower number, and say we are going to get that at a minimum. Err no, chance of exceeding the lower number multiple days in a row is actually quite low.
Key word there is FB.
 

Bloke

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...actually it's 50% chance of more than the lower number and 25% chance of more than the higher number.
Which means there is only a 25% chance that the rainfall is within the stated range! (assuming the probabilities can be added across days, which i doubt is correct). Sorry off topic
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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...actually it's 50% chance of more than the lower number and 25% chance of more than the higher number.
Since you checked, it's...
"Chance of at least" not "chance of more".
From here:

What does the possible rainfall amount mean?​


Possible rainfall



The possible rainfall amounts help to show how rainfall might vary according to the type of weather in a given time period. Both numbers relate directly to a chance of receiving at least that amount of rain.


The first number (5 mm in this example) represents a 50% chance of at least that amount of rain occurring.


The second number (10mm in this example) represents a 25% chance of at least that amount of rain occurring.
 

jungfrau

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Jun 25, 2013
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The BOM are forecasting between 53mm and 88mm for Falls creek between the 12th and the 16th July (I did some arithmetic). If that is the lead in to what is being predicted in this 15th - 19th window then OMG I am getting excited..... (I arrive at Falls on the 23rd for three weeks so please excuse my froth)
Lucky you .. if you had to choose 3 weeks
I reckon you’re on the money ...
i predict late next week / early week worthwhile a sneaky day trip imo
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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It’s a common misconception. I don’t blame the general public for being confused.

Just managing the expectations, after all it’s easy to get carried away with the prospect of decent snow on the horizon.
Yes, I have been defrothed so many times I have developed callouses on my frothing glands. We will know what we have in terms of snowfall when we are skiing on it on Sunday July 18th.
 

snowgum

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Lies, damn lies and statistics!

Some of the precip amounts we see forecast for snowfields and cities look like fantasy land.

I think the bureau need to run some courses for the majority to understand their ranges. Even with a maths degree it can be confusing - not the least because different media quote different prediction models, and if I understand correctly, different percentiles or quartiles? Give us strength! :oops: :eek::rolleyes:
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

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Will BB get anything ??? We need all the help we can get at present !!!
It is not looking great for BB at present. The latest run at modelling by the EC says 6 cms for Baw Baw. The VIC. ski locations above 1600 M. will do better. If you are based in Gippsland then perhaps the Howitt Road Gate could become a worthy destination in 8-9 days for some BC ski /snow camping action. That closed road climbs up to over 1600 M . quite quickly from the Gorge car park.
 

jonathanc

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Which means there is only a 25% chance that the rainfall is within the stated range! (assuming the probabilities can be added across days, which i doubt is correct). Sorry off topic
Depends whether or not each 'day of rainfall' is an independent event... which it probably isn't?
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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This system is holding really good moisture, largely as a result of the injection from the cut off low forming to the West of WA over the next 24 hours (-'ve IOD induced). This moisture is drawn into the higher midlats, into polar circulation.
1625960694570.png


By Tuesday all this airmass, fully laden, is sitting South of SA & WA.
1625960756294.png


By Friday we see this moisture encompassing Vic & Southern NSW. Will be some firecracker falls Friday arvo & into the evening. Coupled with sub-1000hPa MSLP over the alps, I think we could expect falls in the 3-5cm/hour range.
1625960845920.png
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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BOM are on board for this now, boots and all Guvnor!

Buller/ Stirling
BOM .

Thursday 15 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min 1Max 3Snow showers. Windy.Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mmChance of any rain: 95%
rain_95.gif

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h.

Friday 16 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min -1Max 2Snow showers. Windy.Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mmChance of any rain: 100%
rain_100.gif

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 40 to 50 km/h tending westerly 35 to 45 km/h during the morning.

Saturday 17 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min -3Max 0Snow showers. Wind easing.Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mmChance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 35 to 45 km/h tending southwesterly 30 to 40 km/h during the day.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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BOM Falls Creek

Thursday 15 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min 0Max 2Snow showers. Windy.Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mmChance of any rain: 95%
rain_95.gif

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 35 to 45 km/h increasing to 40 to 50 km/h during the morning.

Friday 16 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min 0Max 1Snow showers. Windy.Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mmChance of any rain: 100%
rain_100.gif

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 40 to 50 km/h tending westerly 35 to 45 km/h during the day.

Saturday 17 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min -3Max -1Snow showers. Wind easing.Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mmChance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.
 
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