The Main run is based the highest resolutions Initial ( current) conditions- Data Assimilation . Ensemble uses a Perturbed version of current conditions at a lower resolution - a tactic useful when Initial conditions are particularly volatile- ie conditions where the atmosphere is further from general equilibrium expected at that seasonal time of year.Why is the main run above the others by so much? Also why is it the main run?
S-F uses GFS which isnt as good as other models.Snowforecast calling it Friday pm Buller 18 cm
Have kept eye on this site in past travels o/s so will be interesting to see how close they get on the Aussie fronts
I'm no expert at all, just like to follow the forum and take a punt. Snow down to 600 in vic and 700 NSW for what it's wort
Gee Mr Tee that’s as interesting as as old pacman grab... now this is pretty...BOM MET EYE. Snow forecast for Early Sunday July 18th.
Wednesday PM & Friday PM showing 35-40 knots at free air resort level 850mb so yes, some lifts could be on hold at those sorts of winds + gustsFalls Creek has NW winds at 55 - 65 Km/h on the Friday and slightly stronger on the Saturday morning, according to BOM. Anyone know if there will be a risk of wind hold on lifts there?
Likely to be snowing steadily throughout all of Friday AM to PM.Thoughts on what time snow starts Hotham? Will the road hold up Friday evening?
With the cheapskate free resources I've got I'm seeing roughly the same timeframes but add another 100-200 masl for NSW (i.e. snow down to the Thredbo cat shed early Friday, lowering to Friday Flat by around 9pm).Likely to be snowing steadily throughout all of Friday AM to PM.
From snow to ~1500m early Friday, lowering to 1200m by late Friday night.
Expect 20-35cm in that 20-24 hour timeframe IMO.