Predictions 14-21st July

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Ensembles singing the same tune.
Perisher (1719m ASL):
1626075070278.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: Marquise de Kappy

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
22,542
26,980
1,063
Canberra
Why is the main run above the others by so much? Also why is it the main run?
The Main run is based the highest resolutions Initial ( current) conditions- Data Assimilation . Ensemble uses a Perturbed version of current conditions at a lower resolution - a tactic useful when Initial conditions are particularly volatile- ie conditions where the atmosphere is further from general equilibrium expected at that seasonal time of year.
 

Medicine_Shoes

One of Us
Dec 9, 2018
218
333
163
Falls Creek has NW winds at 55 - 65 Km/h on the Friday and slightly stronger on the Saturday morning, according to BOM. Anyone know if there will be a risk of wind hold on lifts there?
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
11,799
12,200
813
Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

CarveMan

I Never Slice
Ski Pass
May 12, 2000
85,631
71,445
1,515
Les Hautes Montagnes
aussieskier.com

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Falls Creek has NW winds at 55 - 65 Km/h on the Friday and slightly stronger on the Saturday morning, according to BOM. Anyone know if there will be a risk of wind hold on lifts there?
Wednesday PM & Friday PM showing 35-40 knots at free air resort level 850mb so yes, some lifts could be on hold at those sorts of winds + gusts
 
  • Like
Reactions: Medicine_Shoes

jonathanc

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 4, 2014
2,339
3,846
363
Likely to be snowing steadily throughout all of Friday AM to PM.
From snow to ~1500m early Friday, lowering to 1200m by late Friday night.
Expect 20-35cm in that 20-24 hour timeframe IMO.
With the cheapskate free resources I've got I'm seeing roughly the same timeframes but add another 100-200 masl for NSW (i.e. snow down to the Thredbo cat shed early Friday, lowering to Friday Flat by around 9pm).

Also seems to be a brief warmer period on Sunday, but will only be an issue down very low IMO.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
11,799
12,200
813
Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
EC is seeing Cresta Valley and the Horn road at Mt. Buffalo as being XC skiable by Sunday or Monday.
Of course entry to Mt. Buffalo is free of charge and it has unique scenery too.

This is looking good.
 

Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
1,584
3,950
363
Castle Hill - Sydney
Geez, BOM going all in this afternoon for Thredbo.

Forecast for the rest of Tuesday​

Summary
wind.png
Windy. Partly cloudy.Chance of any rain: 10%
rain_10.gif

Alpine area​

Partly cloudy. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 35 to 50 km/h in the late evening.
Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Wednesday 14 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min -3Max 0Snow. Possible heavy falls.Possible rainfall: 25 to 60 mmChance of any rain: 100%
rain_100.gif

Alpine area​

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers or snow. Heavy falls possible. Winds northwesterly 60 to 80 km/h.
Fire Danger - Low-Moderate
Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Thursday 15 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min -1Max 1Snow showers. Windy.Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mmChance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Alpine area​

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h.
Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 16 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min -2Max -1Snow showers. Very windy.Possible rainfall: 30 to 50 mmChance of any rain: 95%
rain_95.gif

Alpine area​

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h.
Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 17 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min -5Max -2Snow showers. Very windy.Possible rainfall: 25 to 35 mmChance of any rain: 95%
rain_95.gif

Alpine area​

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 50 to 65 km/h turning westerly 35 to 55 km/h during the morning.

Sunday 18 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min -5Max -2Snow showers easing.Possible rainfall: 1 to 2 mmChance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Alpine area​

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely during the morning. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Monday 19 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min -6Max -1Showers or snow at times.Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mmChance of any rain: 50%
rain_50.gif

Alpine area​

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers or snow, most likely later in the day. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Tuesday 20 July​

Summary
snow.png
Min -5Max -2Snow shower or two.Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mmChance of any rain: 60%
rain_60.gif

Alpine area​

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lewis
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass