Predictions 14-21st July

snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
6,411
5,014
563
55
vic
xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2021071500_68_41597_294.png
Is this another case of the charts (models) underestimating Hoth/Falls dumpage because of their minute scale at this resolution?

Or is it more a real difference, ie., the combination of additional elevation and more extensive range encouraging uplift in (initially) the NW stream? cheers?

I wouldn’t dismiss the importance of a fresh 40cm +/- for Vic given the thin cover in the higher Alps.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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IMO I expect BOM Vic to lower snow possible to 600m in this afternoon's bulletin, for Saturday AM.

Saturday 17 July​


Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. Snow falling above 600 metres, rising to above 1200m during the late afternoon and evening. Blizzards at times about the Alpine peaks during the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm with gusty winds and small hail. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between zero and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 3 and 10.
 
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snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
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5,014
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vic
Might be lucky to settle to that elevation, but fair chance of some good wintery mix IMO.
During daylight hours the best chance.

Vic BoM are quoting the ‘B’ word - they don’t do that much down here. It must be serous?

I think there’s also a space for BC warnings on the mainland, that vaguely resemble Tassie BC / High country warnings?

With all the new AT folks around, I think more explicit ‘don’t go!’ Warnings would be wise for mainland alps? :thumbs:
 
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CarveMan

I Never Slice
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May 12, 2000
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Vic BoM are quoting the ‘B’ word - they don’t do that much down here. It must be serous?

I think there’s also a space for BC warnings on the mainland, that vaguely resemble Tassie BC / High country warnings?

With all the new AT folks around, I think more explicit ‘don’t go!’ Warnings would be wise for mainland alps? :thumbs:
Blizzard just means wind and snow.
 

Reetro

One of Us
Sep 7, 2017
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Pretty normal August didn't really . I have been in around 5 that I can remember in the last few years
 

Winterwolf

One of Us
Jun 2, 2019
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Is there a thread open for sub-alpine snow chat and prognostications in relation to the current system and Tuesday/Wednesdays? Both look like they'll produce snow along the NSW tablelands. (Not to mention the 24/25th system). Thanks!
 
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The Fallen

One of Us
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May 7, 2015
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Huge moisture injection moving into WA after the SA front. as seen on the attached.

If temps are right, this could send the back end off the charts or ruin the parade.

Its below the WA shoulder (Coral Bay) so i am thinking bonus.

The lower it stays, the better we do.

the speed of the current conveyor injecting cold air gives me 90% glass full for the backend.

1626414046787.png
 

The Fallen

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 7, 2015
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Backend upgrade too :thumbs:

You can see the backend at 100E or 12 on the Antarctic clock.

Directly under the 1030hpa high and ready to sneak in underneath.

Let it feed and clash with the upper WA moisture cause she is a deep slingshot low carrying good cold....

1626417285108.png
 

The Fallen

One of Us
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May 7, 2015
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Its currently a battle between the 1030 high and the 969 low.....

If the high wins, we ridge out BUT if the low wins, the high goes into retrograde and the 968 below the 969 rotate off each other and slingshot into Tuesday.

This is way back end stuff and tonight will more than deliver but if we can sling the 969 into the WA upper level feed, it will dwarf the last 25 hours.
 

doogasnow

One of Us
Mar 7, 2010
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Moe south
Tuesday/Wednesday system not looking as good this morning on gfs imo.Looks to cut off ee and heads more up western vic/Eastern south aus area.
 

Adelaidometer

One of Us
Jun 24, 2015
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Snow possible to 600m through Central & Eastern Vic IMO.
Circa 10pm-1am Tuesday/Wednesday.

500m isn't even out of the question, but I doubt BOM will go that low.
How about slightly west of Victoria ie SA Mount lofty?
Or is that the next system? Thursday onward?:ski:
 
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