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14 day forecast - WA coast

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Darb, Oct 18, 2018.

  1. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey Guys, is there any merit at all trying to predict how precip and wind may be looking for November 1 - 3rd on WA coast? (around Green head area). Was originally going to head south but want to minimise chances of camping in rain.

    I look at some sites like WINDY which do up to 10 days out, and there's the "myweather" (http://www.myweather2.com/City-Town/Australia/Western-Australia/Yanchep/14-Day-Forecast.aspx ) which show a 14 day forecast - but i'm curous where the models / predictions actually derive from and how I may access them?

    I know the weather is to be taken with a pinch of salt, but hey its basically gambling without the spend so why not
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers T, Windy only shows 10 days , so i wondered where this other mob are getting data for 14 days out.

    Precip is main concern, camped in 20mm of rain last weekend (music festival)... not keen on that again ha ha (not when its' WA and we're generally spoilt)

    the 14 day shows on MyWeather shows fronts - so i figured i'll head north a few hrs, instead of south a few hrs (was going to take the wife n sprogs down to Fontys pool).
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd imagine that would be Long Range GFS.
     
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  5. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hmmm, Green Head, November ... Windy! Schedule all outdoor activities for before 10am. Or better still, head for somewhere in the forest.
     
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  6. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can’t get WA weather right one day out, let alone a 14 day forecast o_O
     
  7. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, it's a gamble. There are a couple of beach nooks / bays which are decent for hiding from the southerly in though.

    We were going to head south toward Manjimup and forests, but at this stage it looks like there might be some precip around, so I want to avoid rain as best can be - and thus I want to head north. It's a shake down trip for some new gear, new trailer, and a new camper for a mate .... so if we get a windy couple of days that's OK - we'll make do.

    there's no forest or inland stuff North .... all the forests are south as you know, and likely be wet.

    Can zip out and check out the stockyard gully caves again too, worst case we can drink and watch the kids fight each other.

    Manjimup / Fonty's I'll save for hotter weather when its 40c in Perth and 33c down there :)

     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, probably GFS for that far out as pointed out above, but they publish that it's an aggregate of different sources (which is good IF it's interpreted consistently).
    As I say I haven't used MyWX2 so can't remark on it's cred. The problem is they publish LR in a meteogram format. Meteograms are great for 'mesoscale' forecasts 1-7 days out. Beyond this you'll see alot of swinging run to run...
    A bit like watching the footy with binoculars, you might see the play but not the field.

    IMO Synoptic scale charts are gonna give you a broader picture of trends, adjustments and most synoptic features.

    RE: Green Head - it loves a deepening trough at this time of year. So whilst rain isn't your biggest threat I think 20 knots out of the NW might be one to watch, as GFS takes a punt at here:
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers!
    NORTH west you reckon! I thought the kite-surfing-season southerlies would be smashing through at that time of year.

    Think i'll take wind over rain though.

    Knowing our luck the rain won't eventuate for the south. Mainly making a decision as we had to pay for booking by today if we wanted to keep our south plan, and i really CBF with a downpour lol.
     
  10. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ps those pics above were all in a 25 knot southerly (hence there's a lot of peanuts on the beach - we're heading outside of peak period , not shcool hols, should get lucky).
     
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    And EPS agrees with what POW is saying, NW winds along that part of Coast, less strong than the deterministic GFS. Perhaps the chance of some rain as the trough heads towards the coast on the 1-3 Nov.
     
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  12. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    In terms of rain though, it'll be a lot less than the south west down around Manjimup - surely? that's usually the case with our cold fronts
     
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  13. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ironically a NW wind I could put up with - it's almost always a SSW I'm getting shitty at - so a NW , there's other bays that are protected in those too :)

    Direct West tends to suck immensely.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hear you mate. Gotta roll the dice this far out. Stay positive etc.

    Right now, FWIW, it's kinda the scenario that means winds outta the north at Sunrise, freo doctor southerly by midday... There's enough heat inland to flick the seabreeze in those LR charts.

    Stay with us mate, I can throw my two cents worth in every few days.
     
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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes that's what the anomalies are saying.
     
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  16. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gotta be better than last weekend weather I camped in !

    F435E6A8-6181-4D48-9D33-2F7449A6FD81.png
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lake Leschenaultia? Or Gidigeganup? Love that area for a flake out.
     
  18. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM struggles with their forecasts 3 days out
     
  19. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep Gidgey - fundraiser for Leukemia & volly firies

    hard core storm that night but fortunately it was mostly just as we climbed into swags.

     
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  20. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    So yesterday the MyWeather 14 day had it all as sunny and 25c with easterlies in morning, now it's back to rain and onshore as shit.. models must be flapping wildly
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't see much in the way of rain in this range (1-3rd Nov), Brad.
    There's a decent (ridged) front passing through (~2nd Nov) but looks to move through quickly with bugger all moisture in it. Variable Easterlies to begin with, Southerlies thereafter IMO.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models have an improving trend on this window mate. Looking good for your dates now.
     
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  23. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Excellent Smithers
     
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  24. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Suddenly seeing 1-3mm rain in the forecast , gah!
     
  25. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some people struggle to interpret a forecast 3 days out.
     
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