Predictions 15-16th Sep

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Sep 10, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    It's a late bloomer. EC showing it stronger on today's 00z run.
    Maybe a 5-10cm, with some a bit of wet stuff ahead of it IMO
    [​IMG]
     
    Lady Penelope likes this.
  2. Adricat

    Adricat Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2011
    Messages:
    805
    Likes Received:
    91
    Sunday likely being the better of the two days?
     
    Jellybeans1000, POW_hungry and Donzah like this.
  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,897
    Likes Received:
    16,233
    I think so
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    Even if only for the winds... For sure.
     
  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,334
    Likes Received:
    5,839
    It actually looks like it has a very cold backend. Perhaps ~500m snow levels in Victoria IMO. Important to help cement the base back down for a while, and prolong the corn harvest.
     
  6. Gregah

    Gregah Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    106
    Likes Received:
    106
    Certainly looks cold on this run (Hotham 1650m). If the temps stay there and the moisture bumps up a touch towards the end threre will be some nice dry freshies to be had...
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,745
    Likes Received:
    1,326
    Zooing Out, waiting for EC to run this again.

    Ec looking much better than GFS. Its kind of modelling a return of negative SAM.



    [​IMG]
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    12Z run puts more cold air into the mix. EC a little colder than GFS. Even the Canuck is into it!
    Problem is cold air is looking somewhat dry and the ridge is ushering it through quite quickly.
    5-10cm for Southern resorts IMO.
    Looking better than last Friday’s mess though.

    EC


    GFS


    The Canuck
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    OCF for Friday 10pm - Saturday 10pm
    [​IMG]
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,897
    Likes Received:
    16,233
    Yup ten cents of diamond dust and a bit of wind for the Alps
     
    hongomania likes this.
  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,334
    Likes Received:
    5,839
    and cold.
     
    hongomania likes this.
  12. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    2,096
    Likes Received:
    4,681
    I’m noticing that Jane likes this one, but BOM are meh ...
     
    Snowy Joey and Cuddles like this.
  13. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro Addicted

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    465
    Likes Received:
    372
    Cold is what we really want. and then 10cm over the lot, be nice for our late season gaunt.
     
    hongomania, Seafm and Cuddles like this.
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    I think you can expect BoM to upgrade things for Saturday; this arvo.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    ...And there we have it
    Thredbo:
     
  16. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,503
    Likes Received:
    3,609
    Snow to 700m
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    *In Vic
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    GFS posting some viciously cold temps over southern Tas on Saturday arvo.
    Snow to a coupla hundred metres above sea level, on paper. Coupled instability it's gonna be interesting Saturday arvo in the Apple Isle.
    [​IMG]
     
    nfip and 7wombathead like this.
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,745
    Likes Received:
    1,326
    The progression is developing each model run @ GFS.

    [​IMG]

    Although still a bit stronger front on EC.

    [​IMG]

    Zooming out EC has 3 or 4 Nodes in the LWT.

    [​IMG]

    SAM trying to Feel "Negative".

    [​IMG]
     
    nfip, rocketboy and Claude Cat like this.
  20. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    10,264
    Likes Received:
    5,073
    Surf coast will be pumping Saturday
     
  21. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2014
    Messages:
    665
    Likes Received:
    1,329
    Happy with 5-10 cents and some colder weather.
     
    Donzah likes this.
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,897
    Likes Received:
    16,233
    I'm already over the heat
     
    skull, nfip, IAB and 8 others like this.
  23. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    2,262
    Does the AAO in positive phase partly spin up the various nodes forming around the pole, and then as the phase moves to negative they are unleashed into the Southern Ocean?

    Will be interesting to see the long range forecasts for the final weeks as come into view. Sure looks like we will get a final burst of minty.

    Saturday drive down looking better all the time for this coming weekend. Sunday and Monday look to deliver one more burst of winter fun.
     
  24. doogasnow

    doogasnow Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    761
    Likes Received:
    253
    Like the look of this one for southern and mountain vic.
    The purple line pushes up really high and then looks to leave 528 thickness through south vic on sat!
    IMO
    Chance of a flurry through the higher strezleckis I reckon ❄️
     
  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,745
    Likes Received:
    1,326
    I dont know. But your theory sounds interesting.
     
    The Fallen likes this.
  26. doogasnow

    doogasnow Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    761
    Likes Received:
    253
    This arvo gfs update has some really good thickness lines hitting sw vic
    IMO
     
  27. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    2,262
    BOM arvo update has it drying out for Perisher. 1-5mm only now.
     
  28. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,334
    Likes Received:
    5,839
    Yeah I can concur with this opinion. Last week of Sept and first week of Oct could feature a bit of a last hoot.
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  29. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,334
    Likes Received:
    5,839
    Latest EC looks like 500-600m for Southern VIC, maybe isolated falls down to 400m.
     
    doogasnow likes this.
  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    6,506
    Likes Received:
    10,508
  31. doogasnow

    doogasnow Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    761
    Likes Received:
    253
    Snow to 200m for west and south tassey and 300m for north west tassey! That’s cold!
    Thinking southern vic could see possibly that 4-500m snow level imo
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    Interesting to see BoM go all-in yesterday PM (8-20mm for Saturday) then scale it right-back this eve (1-5mm), back to near where they were yesterday AM. A sign of low confidence IMO.

    TBH can't see where it's derived. Every model I've looked atfor the last 3 days has 5-10mm for Perisher/Thredbo.
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,897
    Likes Received:
    16,233
    Bom September
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    #payfreeze #brainfreeze
     
    sbm_ likes this.
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    15,153
    Likes Received:
    14,343
    Yes. No. Kinda.
    A strong positive AAO phase means contracted, yet strengthened cicumpolar (Westerly) winds. Put a 'strong phase' in Spring after the perpetuation of a strong negative phase and it often means an increase in up-welling of warm circumpolar currents (the presence of +ve SSTAs).
    +ve SSTAs are a good place to start for convection and generally more precip/humidity but as AAO variability is largely driven by the Polar Vortex & ENSO it doesn't directly correlate to a swing back to negative at this time of year.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
    Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    106,351
    Likes Received:
    42,747
    IMO 5mm rain followed by 5cm snow - or something in-between depending on elevation ...
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,745
    Likes Received:
    1,326
    GFS seem to like it more an more.

    [​IMG]
     
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,745
    Likes Received:
    1,326
    Quite a big system.

    20 cm is quite possible in some places IMO. Windy but.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    nfip, doogasnow and Snowy Joey like this.
  39. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    2,712
    Likes Received:
    604
    Looks like the Vic smalls inc Buller could do Ok? based on the GFS chart above?
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,745
    Likes Received:
    1,326
    I was thinking more like Tassy or Main Range.

    Can talk these places up without affecting the Locals as no one goes there. :rolleyes:
     
  41. doogasnow

    doogasnow Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    761
    Likes Received:
    253
    Looking really cold this one! Jane is now saying snow to 500m southern vic!
    Those charts above look really good
    7womb
     
    FourSquare04 and 7wombathead like this.
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
    Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    106,351
    Likes Received:
    42,747
    [​IMG]

    Cold, yes, but I suspect it dries off quick, and perhaps most of the moisture is on the change.
    IMO
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
    Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    14,302
    Likes Received:
    13,349
  44. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn Addicted

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    305
    Gut says more upgrades
     
  45. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,334
    Likes Received:
    5,839
    Something like this. Not much in it, as @Claude Cat said above.
    Snow in very weird places, could be interesting. Grampians, Ballarat, Otway, Strzeleckis. Maybe something for SA around Mt Gambier?
     
    doogasnow and Claude Cat like this.
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
    Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    14,302
    Likes Received:
    13,349
    Looking to be a mixed bag . And perhaps some thundersnow- ( pink shading)
     
  47. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    2,096
    Likes Received:
    4,681
    So not a lot in it (at this point) for the NSW resorts?
     
  48. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,303
    Likes Received:
    2,514
    IMO looks impressive but the reality is that it's too cold for a big dump but it will be nice for a spring slide if you can hide from the wind
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
    Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    14,302
    Likes Received:
    13,349
    Strong lifting for the initial onset, with ideal vapour transfer at the 700hPa level- but available moisture/ mixing ratios take a dive soon therafter . GFS various parameter overview would have me guessing more than EC- perhaps 10- 15 cm.
     
    The Fallen and FourSquare04 like this.
  50. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    24,425
    Likes Received:
    7,986
    Seems to be some heavy precip over the NSW fields for Sta/Sun IMO on AXR latest run