Predictions 15-16th Sep

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Sep 10, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It's a late bloomer. EC showing it stronger on today's 00z run.
    Maybe a 5-10cm, with some a bit of wet stuff ahead of it IMO
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Adricat

    Adricat Hard Yards

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    Sunday likely being the better of the two days?
     
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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    I think so
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Even if only for the winds... For sure.
     
  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    It actually looks like it has a very cold backend. Perhaps ~500m snow levels in Victoria IMO. Important to help cement the base back down for a while, and prolong the corn harvest.
     
  6. Gregah

    Gregah Hard Yards

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    Certainly looks cold on this run (Hotham 1650m). If the temps stay there and the moisture bumps up a touch towards the end threre will be some nice dry freshies to be had...
     
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  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Zooing Out, waiting for EC to run this again.

    Ec looking much better than GFS. Its kind of modelling a return of negative SAM.



    [​IMG]
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    12Z run puts more cold air into the mix. EC a little colder than GFS. Even the Canuck is into it!
    Problem is cold air is looking somewhat dry and the ridge is ushering it through quite quickly.
    5-10cm for Southern resorts IMO.
    Looking better than last Friday’s mess though.

    EC


    GFS


    The Canuck
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    OCF for Friday 10pm - Saturday 10pm
    [​IMG]
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    Yup ten cents of diamond dust and a bit of wind for the Alps
     
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  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    and cold.
     
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  12. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
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    I’m noticing that Jane likes this one, but BOM are meh ...
     
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  13. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro Addicted

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    Cold is what we really want. and then 10cm over the lot, be nice for our late season gaunt.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think you can expect BoM to upgrade things for Saturday; this arvo.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    ...And there we have it
    Thredbo:
     
  16. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty
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    Snow to 700m
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    *In Vic
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS posting some viciously cold temps over southern Tas on Saturday arvo.
    Snow to a coupla hundred metres above sea level, on paper. Coupled instability it's gonna be interesting Saturday arvo in the Apple Isle.
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The progression is developing each model run @ GFS.

    [​IMG]

    Although still a bit stronger front on EC.

    [​IMG]

    Zooming out EC has 3 or 4 Nodes in the LWT.

    [​IMG]

    SAM trying to Feel "Negative".

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    Surf coast will be pumping Saturday
     
  21. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us
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    Happy with 5-10 cents and some colder weather.
     
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  22. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    I'm already over the heat
     
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  23. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    Does the AAO in positive phase partly spin up the various nodes forming around the pole, and then as the phase moves to negative they are unleashed into the Southern Ocean?

    Will be interesting to see the long range forecasts for the final weeks as come into view. Sure looks like we will get a final burst of minty.

    Saturday drive down looking better all the time for this coming weekend. Sunday and Monday look to deliver one more burst of winter fun.
     
  24. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    Like the look of this one for southern and mountain vic.
    The purple line pushes up really high and then looks to leave 528 thickness through south vic on sat!
    IMO
    Chance of a flurry through the higher strezleckis I reckon ❄️
     
  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I dont know. But your theory sounds interesting.
     
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  26. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    This arvo gfs update has some really good thickness lines hitting sw vic
    IMO
     
  27. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    BOM arvo update has it drying out for Perisher. 1-5mm only now.
     
  28. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yeah I can concur with this opinion. Last week of Sept and first week of Oct could feature a bit of a last hoot.
     
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  29. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Latest EC looks like 500-600m for Southern VIC, maybe isolated falls down to 400m.
     
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  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them
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  31. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    Snow to 200m for west and south tassey and 300m for north west tassey! That’s cold!
    Thinking southern vic could see possibly that 4-500m snow level imo
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Interesting to see BoM go all-in yesterday PM (8-20mm for Saturday) then scale it right-back this eve (1-5mm), back to near where they were yesterday AM. A sign of low confidence IMO.

    TBH can't see where it's derived. Every model I've looked atfor the last 3 days has 5-10mm for Perisher/Thredbo.
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    Bom September
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    #payfreeze #brainfreeze
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yes. No. Kinda.
    A strong positive AAO phase means contracted, yet strengthened cicumpolar (Westerly) winds. Put a 'strong phase' in Spring after the perpetuation of a strong negative phase and it often means an increase in up-welling of warm circumpolar currents (the presence of +ve SSTAs).
    +ve SSTAs are a good place to start for convection and generally more precip/humidity but as AAO variability is largely driven by the Polar Vortex & ENSO it doesn't directly correlate to a swing back to negative at this time of year.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    IMO 5mm rain followed by 5cm snow - or something in-between depending on elevation ...
     
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  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS seem to like it more an more.

    [​IMG]
     
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Quite a big system.

    20 cm is quite possible in some places IMO. Windy but.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  39. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Looks like the Vic smalls inc Buller could do Ok? based on the GFS chart above?
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I was thinking more like Tassy or Main Range.

    Can talk these places up without affecting the Locals as no one goes there. :rolleyes:
     
  41. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    Looking really cold this one! Jane is now saying snow to 500m southern vic!
    Those charts above look really good
    7womb
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    [​IMG]

    Cold, yes, but I suspect it dries off quick, and perhaps most of the moisture is on the change.
    IMO
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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  44. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn Addicted
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    Gut says more upgrades
     
  45. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Something like this. Not much in it, as @Claude Cat said above.
    Snow in very weird places, could be interesting. Grampians, Ballarat, Otway, Strzeleckis. Maybe something for SA around Mt Gambier?
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    Looking to be a mixed bag . And perhaps some thundersnow- ( pink shading)
     
  47. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
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    So not a lot in it (at this point) for the NSW resorts?
     
  48. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    IMO looks impressive but the reality is that it's too cold for a big dump but it will be nice for a spring slide if you can hide from the wind
     
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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    Strong lifting for the initial onset, with ideal vapour transfer at the 700hPa level- but available moisture/ mixing ratios take a dive soon therafter . GFS various parameter overview would have me guessing more than EC- perhaps 10- 15 cm.
     
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  50. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty

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    Seems to be some heavy precip over the NSW fields for Sta/Sun IMO on AXR latest run