Predictions 15-16th Sep

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Sep 10, 2018.

  1. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM - DaBo

     
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  2. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    That chart looks like it’s suggesting snow to about 400m? My area is shaded in as receiving 1-2cm and I’m about 410m asl
     
  3. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM saying snow to 700m for NSW saturday night
     
  4. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    This thing really punches hard and cold into south west vic imo
    Could see some nice low level white stuff out there imo
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Bugger all moisture though

    [​IMG]

    Above 2000m might get you 10cm, but elsewhere 5mm + 5cm is looking realistic.
    (EC is showing less)

    IMO
     
  6. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    That’s the only thing really lacking isn’t it cc.
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yeh, but generally really cold = low moisture, so it's no real surprise.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anyone wanna take a punt on which resorts will make snow or not Saturday night?
    I reckon none.

    We rely on #cloudseeding in NSW
     
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  9. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I can see Baw Baw getting 10-20cm out of this system. Nice cold sw flow for B.B imo
     
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  10. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Snow in unusual places.. heard that somewhere?
     
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not sure about that either.
    It's a Tasmanian system IMO
     
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  12. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    U think I might be a little optimistic cc? Lol
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I guess it's better to be optimistic than pessimistic!
     
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  14. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Base is still pretty deep in the snow making areas at Perisher, Falls and Hotham plus up high in Thredbo so I'd assume maybe Thredbo down low and maybe home trails at Falls if they are getting a bit thin. I'll bet on Falls but it's long odds.
     
  15. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    :D Perisher discontinue snowmaking in early August, generally.
     
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  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ummm
    Thredbo snowmaking stopped three weeks ago
     
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I would have thought all the resorts would have stopped by now. Except Selwyn, BB and LM.
     
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  18. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mmm, glad I bet on Falls then;)

    But they have probably wound up too.
     
  19. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    hopefully chains to ski tube Sunday Morning - that's how I like my September surprise.
     
  20. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon your right. The big 5 have enough in snowmaking areas to keep the lifts turning until close so one or two nights making snow might buy them a day or two at most.

    Once the rot sets in with the longer days and higher temps, it's all downhill. What they really need is 3 or 4 long sub freezing nights to hard freeze the rain and slop we got last Thursday night and it looks like we should see colder temps from Saturday which should keep the spring dream alive.
     
  21. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    LM stopped about 3 weeks ago.
     
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  22. Arne

    Arne One of Us

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    No problem on Sidewinder at Thredbo.
    I predict a fun day today.
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Never mind then.
     
  24. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sidewinder??
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sundance
     
  26. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Grasshoppers automated snow predictor calling for 27cm? Surely not I can't see that much. 5-10cm only?? What's the expects think for Perisher? Tossing up skiing Sat night and Sunday.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    lel

    10cm above 2000m at the very best IMO.
    Vic resorts < 5cm
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    LIKE, but I think Southern resorts will be in the 5-10cm range.
    Splitting hairs, I know.
     
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I suspect it will be a little too warm when the moisture comes through for Vic resorts - it's a matter of timing IMO
     
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  30. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    "I predict a fun day today" Unless there are refrigeration pipes in the ground under that I predict waterskiing for you .. :)

    Thredbo must push a lot of snow down each night to keep these runs open, which would in turn melt much more quickly than if it were left at a higher altitude, I wonder how much more quickly they lose snow depth mid mountain because of this?
     
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  31. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    IDN21037
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    New South Wales

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in Illawarra, South Coast, Snowy Mountains and parts of Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 11:03 am Friday, 14 September 2018.

    STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS VIGOROUS WINDS TO NEW SOUTH WALES ON SATURDAY.

    Weather Situation: A strong cold front will cross New South Wales on Saturday, bringing windy conditions to most of the state. The strongest winds are expected about parts of southeast New South Wales.

    For areas above 1900 metres:

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 80 to 90 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 120 km/h are possible from early Saturday about the Alpine Peaks.

    For areas below 1900 metres:

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible from mid-morning Saturday for the Snowy Mountains, Illawarra and parts of the Southern Tablelands, South Coast and Australian Capital Territory. Elevated areas are most susceptible.

    Winds are expected to gradually ease on Saturday night.

    Locations which may be affected include Thredbo, Wollongong, Nowra, Bowral, Batemans Bay, Bega, Moruya Heads, Goulburn, Cooma and Bombala.

    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
    * Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
    * Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
    * Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid on 131 388, or Endeavour Energy on 131 003 or Essential Energy on 132 080, as shown on your power bill.
    * For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.


    The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Friday.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.


    About Severe Weather Warning Services
     
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  32. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    IDV21037
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    Victoria

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in parts of Central, East Gippsland, South West, North Central, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 10:31 am Friday, 14 September 2018.

    A strong cold front will move eastwards across Victoria during Saturday morning.

    North to northwesterly winds will strengthen to 40 to 60 km/hr about elevated parts of eastern Victoria early Saturday morning, with gusts of 90 to 100 km/hr.

    Squally westerly winds averaging 40 to 60 km/hr with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/hr will develop about the southwest coast during Saturday morning, then extend to parts of the central coast and south Gippsland by Saturday afternoon.

    Locations which may be affected include Warrnambool, Portland, Wonthaggi, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham and Mt Buller.

    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
    * Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
    * Keep clear of fallen power lines;


    The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Friday.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.


    About Severe Weather Warning Services
     
  33. rizou

    rizou Hard Yards

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    Do you guys think it will be possible to ski/board on saturday 15/9/18 with the expected weather forecast?
     
  34. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Sounds like more wind than snow. Existing snow base will freeze to pure ice and any new snow will be blown off when reading BOM warnings.
     
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  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Of course, but there will be lifts on wind hold.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Steep cold air boundary progged.
    Apart from probably some showery stuff, it's snow from the get go IMO.
    EC 10AM tomorrow




    Low level frontal band mid-morning is the dead-giveaway. Showery overshoot mid-level stuff (top-right panel) might have a 1-2mm max IMO.
     
    #86 POW_hungry, Sep 14, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2018
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  37. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    I notice there’s no blizzard warnings despite 90-perhaps 120 km/ h gusts on the highest peaks.

    Is that an oversight? Or perhaps inficative of the fairly small amount of snow expected?

    Imo Vic don’t use the B word nor issue BC advisories terribly often. At least compared with Tas & NSW.

    Curious as we certainly get weather in which I’d advise against The BC.
    Turning soft in old age?? (;-)
     
  38. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    hmm i was thinking buller sunday but maybe hotham will be better to get out of the cloud / wind
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You need several hours of sustained winds (technically >56km/h) for 'blizzard' conditions. Gusts don't count.
    Main frontal band is packing the winds @850mb so the bulk of the high wind will pass promptly.
     
  40. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm surfing tomorrow. Gonna be pummmping
     
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Mt Dandenong might get some snow showers tomorrow afternoon according to the Bom.

    Melbourne area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 500 metres later in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Gusty winds and possible hail. Winds northerly 25 to 40 km/h turning westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the morning then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep I reckon it's definitely a chance. Has been for a while.
     
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which is really what you want at this stage of the season. A proper refreeze of the base.
     
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  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just looked at the thickness on AXS_r There is Sub 5240 thickness over the Yarra Valley tomorrow evening.
    Yes you did read 5240

    Bloody brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
     
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  45. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    What does 524 thickness equate to in snow level?
     
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    500-700m IMO

    There is no hard and fast rule
     
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  47. Guthega Girl

    Guthega Girl Hard Yards

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    Skiing Buller tomorrow and going to praying it ain’t too windy to blow it out !!
     
  48. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im going to head to the farm sat night...its about 600m tallarook ranges ill report in
     
  49. skull

    skull One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    predict we won't be camping tonight or skiing tmw.
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think you'll be able to ski tomorrow