Predictions 15-18th Aug Jelly Babies

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 5, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Ensembles and determs signalling a brief system during the week of 16-18th. I think Jelly picked up on this last week.
    IMO it’s in the realm of 15-30cm for mayor resorts.

    GFS


    EC ensembles


    The Canuck
     
  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    You are getting good at this naming game :p:thumbs:

    I'll expand upon that, with the EPS anoms chart, looks like significant potential IMO.
     
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  3. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 First Runs

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    That's not t-shirt weather in Tassie
    [​IMG]
     
  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Go all in at 10 days wont you...
     
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  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    If that comes off I’ll eat my hat, once I dig it out from under all the snow.
     
  6. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    18z GFS has -7c at 850 HPa on 16th Aug over the Alps. I'm not sure I've seen a temp as cold as that for a long long time.
     
  7. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us
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    Thanks for that; booked at FC from the 19th, so bring it on.
     
  8. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    I’d like to just ask, if what’s progged on that chart came through, what snow level would that be for southern vic? Lol
     
  9. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    400-500m.
     
  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Pretty low
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    I want to see EC.
     
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  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    then go and grab it from your collection... ;)

    *when it's available in a few hours.
     
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  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Disclaimer - cause heaven forbid anyone get carried away with hopecasting this thing into something it isn't to then complain in their over inflated expectations that it isn't delivering:

    At +240hrs those all in GFS charts are ridiculous thought bubble stuff. @Jellybeans1000 rightfully advise's deferring to EC (and Ensembles) at this stage and I'll add to that waiting about 4 days before getting too excited about this one.
     
  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Big surprise, lastest GFS has backed away from all in of this morning.
    This morning:
    [​IMG]

    This afternoon's run:
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    IMO come back in a few days and then reconsider.
     
  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    agreed.
     
  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Still there on EC but looks ridgey to me. Yeah?
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    worth a look here.
    [​IMG]
    trailing high posi is the difference.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yes, what @nfip said.
    The collection says 20cm on EC. cold too.

    Looks like another topup IMO.
     
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  20. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room
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    Do the hopecasters even know they're hopecasting?
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I’m sure here’s some D-K involved...

    But getting back to the topic de jour... Oh hey EC. I like what you’re cooking this morning.
     
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  22. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    240 hr warning applies.
    EC and AXS buying in.
    GFS had cut-off.
    long way to go and a lot of weather coming thru yet tho
     
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  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yeah, about 50cm all up. It pushed forward a day, which is what I am worried about. The model is still flopping around a bit, and also with an awkward backend.
     
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Latest GFS has dropped the funky cut off scenario and reverted back to it’s monster all in scenario of yesterday.
     
  25. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Looks close to clipper to me. On EC.
     
  26. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    GFS going that way too
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    AXS gives some joy on the surface.

    Higher up where it counts it's looking like old mate ridgey mcridge face.
     
    #27 nfip, Aug 7, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2018
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    EC progression has 2 Low centres moving East and finaly combining to form 1 around the15th. - The timing/ tracking of pressure gradients may change significantly IMO.
     
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    RIIIIIIIIDDDDGGGEEE

    [​IMG]
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Progression still there. Still good for 15-20cm top up IMO.
     
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  31. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    GFS 18z hanging onto this a little bigger.
     
  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    Shes a brisk little mover across the Bight @ 850 hPa on EC . Smells like clipper atm IMO
     
  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    hmmmm... from Jane:
    We take a break on Tuesday as the high moves through, before the next weather system on Wednesday to Friday. This is shaping up to be another big one. It may start warm, but expect lots of snow to follow, possibly 20 to 35 cmover a few days.

    [​IMG]
     
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  36. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room
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    Hmmmm....need to decide my movements.....
     
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  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    colour me cynical on "may start warm followed by possibly lots of snow"

    Bit to play out on this, 4 day rule at best I reckon. I've made arrangements for Thursday/Friday, will wait and see how it plays out early next week before making a call.
     
    #37 mick chopps, Aug 9, 2018 at 8:39 AM
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2018 at 4:09 PM
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    This is obviously where Jane is finding her optimism in "lots of snow over a few days"

    [​IMG]
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Jane's automated EC based forecast meteogram for Hotham mid elevation @ 1600m.

     
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  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    The max numbers for this are around 45-50cm
     
  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    how do you see temps at this stage?
    Jane's EC forecast looking like marginal around ~1600-1700m initially then lowering. 10ml of rain to start?
     
  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yep, that looks like the snow level on Wednesday. The Saturday bit is the most juicy bit on EC, but the least settled. temps fine after wed night
     
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  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    It’s Axs so grain of salt at this range. But above 1600m would do exceptionally well out of this.


     
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  44. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Solid clip on GFS 00z. May need to extend the date range to the 19th though?
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    Now to convince my daughter to have a week off school. ..
     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    Late on 15th- 16th looks rather warm. Friday arvo looks good on GFS atm. Freeze level at circa 1400 metres not far behind the initial frontogenisis with busy bouyancy. IMO
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Dem mountains are calling you.

    Jane’s a tad bullish due to AXS, IMO. Lower end of the scale plus a AXS downgrade in line with others, brings me to 15-20cm for majors by the end of next week.
     
  48. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room
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    I’m really waxing and waning on how irresponsible I’m going to be next week.
     
  49. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    GFS is
    [​IMG]
     
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  50. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    You have to dig your car out yet