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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 5, 2018.
Good point. I might do it tomorrow during the hairdryer.
Bag of pool salt does wonders
GFS looks effing amazing
Thursday may be a surprise result IMO.
To me there just seems to be too much equalibrium in this EC plot 10 am Thurs. Somethings gotta give imo.
Please Sir pave the way for Jelly Babies..
IMO the push up and close succession may mean upgrades.. (looked at animation but have no credentials so just imo )
This system still looking good for ~15cm IMO
Bit clippery but looks open to adjustments (settlement and upgrades) once this weekends system clears.
A high pressure ridge will struggle to establish itself too quickly behind the anom of this cold shot of air we’re getting tonight IMO.
Agree, it does look clippery. Interesting follow up on 19th-21st though. Deep Southerly fetch possible IMO.
Yeah EC likes it (19th) GFS has its blinkers on I think and can’t see past next Thurs/Friday
They both have some reasonable wind vectors- downstream push, in their respective time slots. EC looking a bit more realistic atm IMO.
EPS prefering late on 17th.
For what its worth POAMA MJO forecast has changed a little favourably for this period in the last week.
midweek looks to be swapping places with where next weekend was looking
Good to see the warm wont hang around so long now early in the week
Slight upgrade on EPS and GEFS.
10-15cm ? Temps ok ? Wednesday or Thursday?
Yr Hoham shows about 10cm with ok temps
IMO Wednesday looks a little marginal. Ok for above 1600m
10-15cm Wednesday (or some as rain if below 1600m)
~20cm on Saturday
Jane and YR NO upping it a bit with up to 25cm.. interesting to see what will happen
It's come back in a wee bit over the last 24hrs. Solid clip to hopefully crack the 2m mark.
Looks similar to the last one, albeit with slightly more freezing SW winds.
Buller’s Yr numbers look great for Saturday.
Large body of cold behind the Clipper.
Yeah Solid little clip on Wednesday for a top up up high. then the real deal on the weekend which will favour Buller nicely. you'll get your wish for a better timed dump and morning freshies. Does have some W in though...
Saturday is hardly the best timing
at least it's overnight and not middle of the day.
This week seems to keep producing. GFS still bullish
Saturday night. The last of the 4 Piggies from 10 days ago
Come on Wednesday night!
I predict I'll be there Weds - Sat.
Hate to be the bearer of bad news but GFS suggests it’ll be a little gross below 1700m until mid afternoon. With the Westerlies in-mind, it looks like 10-15mm of rain for Buller IMO.
Sorry haven’t had much of a look on EC yet.
Adiabatic effects look to spare other resorts IMO.
Almost a replica of last week and Buller did ok.
And 4am Sat.
not quite IMO, last week it had -20C @500mb, in the uppers last Tuesday. This week looks a little warmer ~18C at 500mb
I am away from my computer so happy to be corrected the an EC temp profile. Anyone?
EC 7am and 10 am Wed freeze levels in feet sorry. In CDTime US so add 15 hours to get Oz time.
EC precip up until 10 pm Sat..
The disagreement between EC and GFS ain’t a good sign... nonetheless EC says she’ll be right above 1500m for Wednesday.
Need a 3rd opinion (AXS).
Yep. More to look at yet.
GFS has some funky temp advection ( warm and cold) going on at 700hPa but even more so at 800hPa. The cold tracks from South West rather quickly ( a tad unrealistic imo) or its one hell of a big trowel.
Best I could come up with, my computer knowledge is rather limited.
Yeah, we’re looking at the same thing. Mid arvo...
GFS has a continuous period of constant snow fronts for 240 hrs.
I predict we are going past 2.5 m at Spencer.
Over 150 mm forecasted
indeed. many of them.
Yr gone right off Tues
Agree, GFS does look amazing. Access-G isn't on-board beyond Sunday though (keeps the cold air out West).
yeah still, halve it... It's GFS at 10 days...
The problem is; people read your hopecast and think it’s the going rate... GFS is horse shit beyond a week, you should know better.
In fact, I know you know better.
BoM has upped its totals for Hotham on Wednesday (15-35)
Interesting as OCF is only going for around 10-15mm.