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Predictions 15-19th Aug Jelly Babies

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 5, 2018.

  1. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good point. I might do it tomorrow during the hairdryer.
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bag of pool salt does wonders LOL

    On topic
    GFS looks effing amazing
     
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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday may be a surprise result IMO.
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To me there just seems to be too much equalibrium in this EC plot 10 am Thurs. Somethings gotta give imo.
     
  5. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Please Sir pave the way for Jelly Babies..
    IMO the push up and close succession may mean upgrades.. (looked at animation but have no credentials so just imo )
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This system still looking good for ~15cm IMO
    Bit clippery but looks open to adjustments (settlement and upgrades) once this weekends system clears.
    A high pressure ridge will struggle to establish itself too quickly behind the anom of this cold shot of air we’re getting tonight IMO.
     
  7. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Agree, it does look clippery. Interesting follow up on 19th-21st though. Deep Southerly fetch possible IMO.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah EC likes it (19th) GFS has its blinkers on I think and can’t see past next Thurs/Friday
     
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    They both have some reasonable wind vectors- downstream push, in their respective time slots. EC looking a bit more realistic atm IMO.
     
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS prefering late on 17th.
     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    For what its worth POAMA MJO forecast has changed a little favourably for this period in the last week.
     
  12. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    midweek looks to be swapping places with where next weekend was looking
    Good to see the warm wont hang around so long now early in the week
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slight upgrade on EPS and GEFS.
     
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  14. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    10-15cm ? Temps ok ? Wednesday or Thursday?
    Yr Hoham shows about 10cm with ok temps
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO Wednesday looks a little marginal. Ok for above 1600m
    10-15cm Wednesday (or some as rain if below 1600m)
    ~20cm on Saturday
     
  16. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Jane and YR NO upping it a bit with up to 25cm.. interesting to see what will happen
     
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  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's come back in a wee bit over the last 24hrs. Solid clip to hopefully crack the 2m mark.
     
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  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looks similar to the last one, albeit with slightly more freezing SW winds.
     
  19. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller’s Yr numbers look great for Saturday.
     
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  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Large body of cold behind the Clipper.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah Solid little clip on Wednesday for a top up up high. then the real deal on the weekend which will favour Buller nicely. you'll get your wish for a better timed dump and morning freshies. Does have some W in though...
     
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  22. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saturday is hardly the best timing ;)
     
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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    at least it's overnight and not middle of the day.
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This week seems to keep producing. GFS still bullish

    Wednesday Night

    [​IMG]

    Saturday night. The last of the 4 Piggies from 10 days ago

    [​IMG]
     
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  25. Swiss

    Swiss Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Come on Wednesday night!

    I predict I'll be there Weds - Sat.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hate to be the bearer of bad news but GFS suggests it’ll be a little gross below 1700m until mid afternoon. With the Westerlies in-mind, it looks like 10-15mm of rain for Buller IMO.
    Sorry haven’t had much of a look on EC yet.

    Adiabatic effects look to spare other resorts IMO.
     
  27. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Almost a replica of last week and Buller did ok.
     
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And 4am Sat.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    RE:Wednesday:
    not quite IMO, last week it had -20C @500mb, in the uppers last Tuesday. This week looks a little warmer ~18C at 500mb
    I am away from my computer so happy to be corrected the an EC temp profile. Anyone?
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 7am and 10 am Wed freeze levels in feet sorry. In CDTime US so add 15 hours to get Oz time.
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC precip up until 10 pm Sat..
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The disagreement between EC and GFS ain’t a good sign... nonetheless EC says she’ll be right above 1500m for Wednesday.
    Need a 3rd opinion (AXS).
     
  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. More to look at yet.
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has some funky temp advection ( warm and cold) going on at 700hPa but even more so at 800hPa. The cold tracks from South West rather quickly ( a tad unrealistic imo) or its one hell of a big trowel.
     
  36. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Best I could come up with, my computer knowledge is rather limited.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, we’re looking at the same thing. Mid arvo...
     
    #87 POW_hungry, Aug 14, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2018
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS has a continuous period of constant snow fronts for 240 hrs.

    I predict we are going past 2.5 m at Spencer.

    Over 150 mm forecasted
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lol
     
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  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    indeed. many of them.
     
  42. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr gone right off Tues
     
  43. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Agree, GFS does look amazing. Access-G isn't on-board beyond Sunday though (keeps the cold air out West).
     
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  44. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks good
     
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  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    :cry:

    :rolleyes:

    :crap: Thinking Maximum

    [​IMG]
     
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah still, halve it... It's GFS at 10 days... ;)
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The problem is; people read your hopecast and think it’s the going rate... GFS is horse shit beyond a week, you should know better.

    In fact, I know you know better.
     
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    BoM has upped its totals for Hotham on Wednesday (15-35)
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting as OCF is only going for around 10-15mm.
     
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