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Predictions 15-19th Aug Jelly Babies

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 5, 2018.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Majors are indicating 15 cm would be a good outcome for Hotham atm.
     
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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    10 am Wed still looking slightly unfavourable on GFS. Still a fair amount of warm advection in the layers messing with our beloved adiabatic lift. Vertical Velocity at the DGZ target levels are mediocre to good but not fantastic. I would be happy with 10 cm for majors IMO.
     
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  3. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM well on board for this period (NSW).
     
  4. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    And Jane’s automated forecast (EC?) going for 21
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS has a sub 800 metre snow level with a southerly for Sunday night
    (thickness is 528)
    Bombala etc will get coated ..as will Jtown
     
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  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Claude Cat we almost need to merge threads
    *per GFS
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Will review tonight.
     
  8. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Saturday system looks almost similar to the one on the weekend just gone.
    Is this next system colder than last weekend system?
    Jane saying snow to 600m with flurries to 400m?
     
  9. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks colder to me. Last week's system stalled in the bight for 2 days where as this is a shorter and sharper punch of cold air. This Saturday's system looks to peak over SE Aus. Most systems have peaked over WA so far this season so this may be the one we have been waiting for imo.
     
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  10. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im always disappointed by low snow events. Those damn low mountains get in the way and suck it dry. Whats the verdict on this one?
     
  11. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Where about are u located mr?
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'll extend the date range to the 19th.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO now looking at 40 to 50cm for this entire system, with less prefrontal.
     
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  14. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    At what snow level cc?
     
  15. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dont worry - when the Orinoco flow hits, it sucks up the moisture :)
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.



    Looking deep on Saturday and Sunday.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's starts off a bit higher on Wednesday, perhaps 1400m, but drops pretty quickly, Friday perhaps 1200m, Saturday lower again, and Sunday could see snow down to 800m perhaps lower?
    Weekend looks awesome.

    IMO
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    500-600m IMO on Sunday morning.
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Have a feeling it might inch up a little, but should be good either way.
     
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    For Buller.
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looing good for totals, for the period on EC
     
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  22. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Melbourne. But hey im happy to be pleasantly surprised and the totals above give me cause for optimism

    I just know when there is frothing about sea level snow in tas, the vic alps and main range get less. But this is ultimately a NWer with a low snow tail so hopefully all should be good.

    Ive got a SAR event on this weekend. It will keep it very very real.......
     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The cold air tail has a fair bit of south in it.
    Orbost snow IMO
     
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  24. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like that weekend we met on Bogong!!!
     
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  25. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I'll be driving up Hoth System cray early Sunday for Mary's and chute freshies, I predict I will have my portable phone charger packed in my pocket so I can post the goodness. (Unlike Buller last Tuesday when I went live INSTA thru powder keg trees and ate all my battery life like a rookie). #neveragain
     
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  26. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Will be dry! IMO :puke:
     
  27. Snowcone

    Snowcone Hard Yards

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    I could only get Harrietville this weekend. Hope Sunday drive up is open. Mary’s etc. should be sweet sweet sweet..
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
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  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    BOM 4 day is looking juicy IMO - Saturday in particular looks amazing, that front with embedded troughs! :eek:

    [​IMG]
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2m here we come.
     
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  31. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    At this rate, easily surpass 2m after this weekend's event! On track for 2.5m!
     
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep.
    Tracking loosely aligned with 1996 at this stage and ahead of 2012 and 2008. On track for the best season since 2004. Soz O/T.
     
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  33. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    "The one we've been waiting for"? Jeez, some people are hard to please! Thredbo last week had better cover than I think I've ever seen.
     
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  34. steeps

    steeps Addicted

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    Looks like with the impending “Hotham Follow Up Fronts” this weekend coming v last weeks magnificent ViC conditions, NSW [(Perisher) will need my love. I predict another 4 days of bliss from Sunday to Wed. I’ll report in as usual. Someone has to do it,,,,,,,,looks like another 40cm to today’s falls during that period.
     
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  35. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ha ha, I'm not complaining about the conditions. But a direct hit on the South East will also hopefully deliver something for the farmers as well. NSW needs rain desperately and fingers crossed this hits the spot. Plus a good dump to set us up for a good spring skiing season.
     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yesterdays GFS Temp Advection plots have played out as expected for today. EC snowfall totals also close to obs. Saturday looks to be holding steady atm. Sunday- warm advection at 850 hPa coupled with good adiabatic lift and cool enough temps should result in a nice period of convection IMO.
     
  37. LW1

    LW1 First Runs

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    So much for the “Gentle Breeze” for Wednesday Try 35-50km/h winds with gusts up to 80km/h
     
  38. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    For those in the know, Harrietville side to Hoth System likely to close sat night/sun morning if Saturday pukes low?
     
  39. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Much possibilities
     
  40. Amelia1810

    Amelia1810 One of Us

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    How's wind looking for this weekend, specifically Buller if possible? Got beginners with us, hope its not too brutal for them!
     
  41. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Sunday has some very cold 850HPa temps on 18Z GFS. Down to -5 in Southern Vic. A system for those who like powder.
     
  42. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Bawbs could potentially get smashed with this one imo!
    Jane suggesting snow down to 500m for southern vic with also a good amount of precipitation coming in with that coldest air, could be real trouble from right down low getting on and off the mountain imo
     
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  43. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    NSW BOM less keen than their VIC counterparts at the 4:30pm forecast.
     
  44. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, downgrade for the MR
     
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I call BS. This is 30-40cm to low levels
    Look at the thickness...ohh lordy
     
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The majority of the moisture falls in sub 536 thickness
    This is mint
     
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  47. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thredbo special
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, 30-45cm for me. Snowfall to 500m, maybe 400m on Sunday morning.


    Deep.....


    Looks good for everywhere.
     
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Subsidance sets in a little earlier on Sunday on todays runs IMO.
     
  50. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    That’s got a couple of cents shaded in right over my place :thumbs:
     
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