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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 5, 2018.
Majors are indicating 15 cm would be a good outcome for Hotham atm.
10 am Wed still looking slightly unfavourable on GFS. Still a fair amount of warm advection in the layers messing with our beloved adiabatic lift. Vertical Velocity at the DGZ target levels are mediocre to good but not fantastic. I would be happy with 10 cm for majors IMO.
BOM well on board for this period (NSW).
And Jane’s automated forecast (EC?) going for 21
Latest GFS has a sub 800 metre snow level with a southerly for Sunday night
(thickness is 528)
Bombala etc will get coated ..as will Jtown
@Claude Cat we almost need to merge threads
Will review tonight.
Saturday system looks almost similar to the one on the weekend just gone.
Is this next system colder than last weekend system?
Jane saying snow to 600m with flurries to 400m?
Looks colder to me. Last week's system stalled in the bight for 2 days where as this is a shorter and sharper punch of cold air. This Saturday's system looks to peak over SE Aus. Most systems have peaked over WA so far this season so this may be the one we have been waiting for imo.
Im always disappointed by low snow events. Those damn low mountains get in the way and suck it dry. Whats the verdict on this one?
Where about are u located mr?
I'll extend the date range to the 19th.
IMO now looking at 40 to 50cm for this entire system, with less prefrontal.
At what snow level cc?
Dont worry - when the Orinoco flow hits, it sucks up the moisture
Looking deep on Saturday and Sunday.
It's starts off a bit higher on Wednesday, perhaps 1400m, but drops pretty quickly, Friday perhaps 1200m, Saturday lower again, and Sunday could see snow down to 800m perhaps lower?
Weekend looks awesome.
500-600m IMO on Sunday morning.
Have a feeling it might inch up a little, but should be good either way.
Looing good for totals, for the period on EC
Melbourne. But hey im happy to be pleasantly surprised and the totals above give me cause for optimism
I just know when there is frothing about sea level snow in tas, the vic alps and main range get less. But this is ultimately a NWer with a low snow tail so hopefully all should be good.
Ive got a SAR event on this weekend. It will keep it very very real.......
The cold air tail has a fair bit of south in it.
Orbost snow IMO
Like that weekend we met on Bogong!!!
I'll be driving up Hoth System cray early Sunday for Mary's and chute freshies, I predict I will have my portable phone charger packed in my pocket so I can post the goodness. (Unlike Buller last Tuesday when I went live INSTA thru powder keg trees and ate all my battery life like a rookie). #neveragain
Will be dry! IMO
I could only get Harrietville this weekend. Hope Sunday drive up is open. Mary’s etc. should be sweet sweet sweet..
Stay on topic
BOM 4 day is looking juicy IMO - Saturday in particular looks amazing, that front with embedded troughs!
2m here we come.
At this rate, easily surpass 2m after this weekend's event! On track for 2.5m!
Tracking loosely aligned with 1996 at this stage and ahead of 2012 and 2008. On track for the best season since 2004. Soz O/T.
"The one we've been waiting for"? Jeez, some people are hard to please! Thredbo last week had better cover than I think I've ever seen.
Looks like with the impending “Hotham Follow Up Fronts” this weekend coming v last weeks magnificent ViC conditions, NSW [(Perisher) will need my love. I predict another 4 days of bliss from Sunday to Wed. I’ll report in as usual. Someone has to do it,,,,,,,,looks like another 40cm to today’s falls during that period.
Ha ha, I'm not complaining about the conditions. But a direct hit on the South East will also hopefully deliver something for the farmers as well. NSW needs rain desperately and fingers crossed this hits the spot. Plus a good dump to set us up for a good spring skiing season.
Yesterdays GFS Temp Advection plots have played out as expected for today. EC snowfall totals also close to obs. Saturday looks to be holding steady atm. Sunday- warm advection at 850 hPa coupled with good adiabatic lift and cool enough temps should result in a nice period of convection IMO.
So much for the “Gentle Breeze” for Wednesday Try 35-50km/h winds with gusts up to 80km/h
For those in the know, Harrietville side to Hoth System likely to close sat night/sun morning if Saturday pukes low?
How's wind looking for this weekend, specifically Buller if possible? Got beginners with us, hope its not too brutal for them!
Sunday has some very cold 850HPa temps on 18Z GFS. Down to -5 in Southern Vic. A system for those who like powder.
Bawbs could potentially get smashed with this one imo!
Jane suggesting snow down to 500m for southern vic with also a good amount of precipitation coming in with that coldest air, could be real trouble from right down low getting on and off the mountain imo
NSW BOM less keen than their VIC counterparts at the 4:30pm forecast.
Yep, downgrade for the MR
I call BS. This is 30-40cm to low levels
Look at the thickness...ohh lordy
The majority of the moisture falls in sub 536 thickness
This is mint
Yep, 30-45cm for me. Snowfall to 500m, maybe 400m on Sunday morning.
Looks good for everywhere.
Subsidance sets in a little earlier on Sunday on todays runs IMO.
That’s got a couple of cents shaded in right over my place