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Predictions 15-19th Aug Jelly Babies

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 5, 2018.

  1. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, BOM have been flip flopping over the last few days IMO, and you guys have not, guess we shall see! What is subsidence in this case @Kletterer ?
     
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Descending parcel of air = compressed and heated- visible on the temp advection plots. Reduces lapse rates.
     
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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict road chaos.
     
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  4. shred_gnar

    shred_gnar Hard Yards

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    What are winds like this weekend at Hotham anyone? Staying in Bright, should i leave stupid early Sunday morning for the drive up?
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will the road be open?
     
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  6. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Subsidence is when your house falls down a mine shaft in Lithgow but the mortgage remains the same!
    It may snow in Lithgow on Sunday......
     
  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah. windy, dry and sunny in Lithgow.
     
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  8. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Keep Falls up your sleeve as plan B. If its heavy snow to low levels then the Harrietville approach could have issues.
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC suggesting southern resorts will do better; perhaps 40cm for Buller; northern resorts, perhaps 30cm.
    IMO I'm not entirely buying that.
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    For a matter of comparison, GFS....

    Still 30-40cm range. Looks like Falls/Hotham and NSW resorts just a bit better than Buller, contrary to EC.

    It's the kind of system that has fruit for everyone.
     
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  11. Maroubra Seal

    Maroubra Seal Hard Yards

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  12. Maroubra Seal

    Maroubra Seal Hard Yards

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  13. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm presuming that's perisher.
    It also shows the front arrives at 7/8am
     
  14. Maroubra Seal

    Maroubra Seal Hard Yards

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    Yep, Perisher. -5 degrees at 11am.
     
  15. lsm87

    lsm87 Hard Yards

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    Hmm I'm in the same boat, saying in Bright and looking at Hotham. If it snows low does that = hours of traffic jam up the mountain from Harrietville?
     
  16. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    I will post obs from Kosciusko Rd to Perisher on Sunday morning!
     
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  17. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That or road closed
     
  18. tastim

    tastim Early Days

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    Bom has possible snow for CT on Saturday down to 900m and 700m on Sunday. Time will tell.
     
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Go the tube
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
  21. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Staying at Smiggins so hence the drive up (sorry, CC, back on topic!).
     
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  22. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A low level heavy system like this is shaping up to be often leads to either convoys up and down or road closed.

    Sorry CC, off topic.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  24. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM offering up conservative totals for Perisher this weekend (8 - 20mm).
     
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  25. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I think the snow quality will be great and the quantity good but not a huge amount. Usually when we get very cold air it is also very dry giving us low level play snow without much more up high. Sunday should be a great day out with cold conditions keeping Saturdays fresh snow in fine condition. 20-30cm all round will be a good score.
     
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  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    BOM 4 day already updated:

    [​IMG]


    Expect afternoon BOM forecast total amounts to ramp up, IMO
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This morning's EC is like last night. 30cm for northern resorts, 40cm for Buller.
    IMO
     
  28. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Wonder how the Monaro will fair out of this. Second half of the system looks like a special for snow from Jindy through Bombala and perhaps into Cooma as well. Roads could be interesting. I've set myself up to work from Jindy on Monday should travel prove a challenge.
     
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO those with overnight parking at Buller on Saturday night are going to have a bunch of work when they leave Sunday.
     
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  30. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Brilliant result, Buller needs snow on lower Tyrol and Southside runs IMO
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM saying snow down to 600m on Saturday, lowering to 500m on Sunday.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Don't think Saturday will be an issue wind wise

    [​IMG]

    Sunday a lot stronger from the SW

    [​IMG]
     
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  33. GS

    GS A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty windy too
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sunday will be.
     
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM are saying 45-60kph in the morning, and 40-50kph later on Saturday for Buller.
    50-60kph on Sunday.

    Sounding like it's gonna be real busy in the Bull Run Bowl, or worse just Cow Camp and the Chamois Bowl.
     
  36. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will be like the weekend @mx_boarder came to grief last year. Getting off the hill was a debacle.

    I'll leave some time on Tuesday.
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    So will those getting going Sunday afternoon :rolleyes:
     
  38. mx_boarder

    mx_boarder Habitual line stepper Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL

    I predict a nice blanket of snow by Sunday morning where I’m staying @ 750m.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Same goes for practically all of the resort O/N parking situations. Exactly the reason why I left to go back to Sydney this weekend. It will be a bun fight until I return on Monday.;)

    Just look at these temps & saturated low levels in GFS's Skew-t for Sunday 1am (around Thredbo). Snow possible to 600m in Southern NSW IMO. Snow in downtown Tumbarumba (~650m) is not out of the question @Kelpieboy
    [​IMG]
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    For sure.
     
  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow in the Illawarra bom forecast a chance I think.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probable for South Coast too... Budawangs, Clyde etc. It's a shame it's light on Precip after the GDR.
     
  43. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wouldn't bank on low wind Saturday imo. This is the first leading low to peak south west of Tassy since June... if I remember correctly.... so it's a building beast. Similar to what hit Perth a few weeks back.... but I could be wrong.
     
  44. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its thick. Multiple layers interconnecting with strong sea surface winds. It's got Blizzard written all over it imo.. Dig in tonight and ride it out till Sundy morning for chest deep.
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM have issued a strong wind forecast for tomorrow, so you're probably right.

    Severe Weather Warning for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in Central, South West, North Central, Wimmera and parts of East Gippsland, Mallee, Northern Country, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 2:22 pm Friday, 17 August 2018.

    Cold and squally winds developing across the weekend.

    Northerly winds are expected to strengthen ahead of a cold front that will cross Victoria Friday night and Saturday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to develop over Alpine areas of eastern Victoria during the early hours of Saturday morning.

    Local showers and thunderstorms will possibly produce damaging wind gust of around 90 km/h over parts of western and central Victoria during Saturday afternoon.

    Strong wind gusts are likely to persist into Sunday through parts of central and eastern Victoria, particularly about the coast and ranges.

    Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.
     
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  46. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM - Thredbo



    BoM - Perisher



    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    IDN29000

    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    for the Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Riverina, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts

    Issued at 3:28 pm EST on Friday 17 August 2018.

    Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and strong westerly winds are expected during Saturday. Areas likely to be affected include the Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts and parts of the Central Tablelands and Riverina forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

    The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday.
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’m banking on a low wind Saturday afternoon. I am not hiking all day.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vic BoM going for snow possible >500m for Sunday
     
  49. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Backed off on precipitation totals.
     
  50. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Haven't seen a flood watch for a while
     
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