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Predictions 15-19th Aug Jelly Babies

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 5, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not in today's post unfortunately

    For when? Seems overstated. This is by no means a heavy precip system (max of 15-20mm in a day).
     
  2. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM Vic. for Sat through to Sunday.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Flood watches up for Upper Yarra, Bunyip and South Gippsland Rivers.
     
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  4. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom sticking with downgraded totals for MR.
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Who ever is on duty at NSW bom ain't a snow fan.
     
  6. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hiking Alps? Personally, I'd only consider "banking" softer winds pre 11am Sat and then batten down. The low pushing North is a fresh baby from the deep south west. It's not a WA leftover this time around so treat with caution imo.
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The moisture will dry up fast as you head further north, IMO
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, seems overstated...
    Satdee
    [​IMG]
    Sundee
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Max29057

    Max29057 One of Us

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    Moisture upgrade for buller though!
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't forget that "30mm" has a 25% chance of being reached. It's simply BoM hedging given some uncertainty in their forecast and some Isolated totals possible IMO.

    20-40cm for Vic resorts this weekend IMO.
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC for the weekend:
     
  14. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM not really excited by this one at all. Sticking with 6-15mm for Saturday (Perisher). Looks cold though.
     
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  15. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fully agree. Its stacked at all levels. Anything less than 30cm and I'll stop posting....
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah as Miskelly and CC suggest above the Low Level moisture gets scraped out of the sky courtesy of yours truly Great Div Range. The reality is; it's dry in the deep atmos and low level moisture won't get very far.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So just to be clear... 30 to 50cm for falls and Gotham. 30 to 60 for Thred and Perish. 25 to 59 for Buller. IMO
     
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  18. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    We haven’t had a good downgrade for ages, I feel a lot better now, Strayla
     
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  19. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Snow possible in western Tumbarumba being a bit more elevated , downtown not as likely but still possible from this event as it sits right now. Tumbarumba usually gets 1 or 2 "snow events" per season. Myself being a little more elevated and facing a generally westnorwest direction usually get a little more and a few more times per season. I am not anticipating much if anything properly white as I am seeing the moisture fail to arrive in sufficient quantity , 5 to 10mm at most.
     
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  20. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    So this maybe close to your last post I guess :eek:;)
     
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  21. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are we missing the warm pool SST in the Bight? Feeding surface level convection.... so far this year, the mid and uppers have made up for it. ITS a compounding system. Watch with interest.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think you maybe surprised here IMO.
     
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  23. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I’ll be watching this one with keen interest all weekend!! Going to be one very interesting cold blast for southern vic that’s for sure!
    Read somewhere in age that the Dandenong rangers could get quiet a cover of snow?
    Hopefully we see some good flurries where I am in the strezleckis
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You'll see things ramp up for your region around Saturday 8pm until Sunday mid-morning IMO.
     
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  25. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    I was talking to my old man this arvo over a beve and as usual talk turned to weather pretty quickly and more specifically upcoming weather. He has an interesting theory about drought affected conditions in our region , SWS and Southern Riverina and good snow seasons being linked. He explained his theory at some length , about 4 bottles worth so now I need to research some local weather/rainfall history to either back his claim or refute it.

    My thinking on this one is it will be too southerly in direction and maybe a little too easterly in placement for my location so most of the moisture will either be spent or will only clip us. The valley to the south of me , down towards KC will do much better in regards moisture.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree the Southerly will do you no favours, your real gain will be tomorrow AM early, in the Westerly phase.
     
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  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    That’s a decent window pow
    What sort of chance do u think my area has to see some flurries?
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair enough. I gave a look at ACCESS R at the Doon, looks better mid morning. Still will be hiking for turns most of the time.
     
  29. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    But the beast will feed as it establishes itself Sunday morning. Track the Embeds
     
  30. tastim

    tastim Early Days

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    Bom has snow down to 600m on CT Sunday now. I'm guessing that the chances of this snow for CT will be over Saturday night/Sunday morning.
     
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  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    700hPa Vapour Transport- 4am Saturday .
     
  32. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plausible, looking at the radar, or will it stall like two weeks (nearly) ago.
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And 4pm Sunday with potential for Gippsland and NSW Resorts IMO.
     
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  34. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    She ain't no stall imo. It's a frozen uppercut straight to the throat.. ... she'll bend u over and then the southerly takes control. Don't clench
     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Saturday 7am Relative Humidity looking nice imo.
     
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  36. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    Impressive system. Buller should do well. I reckon 28cm total on Sat/Sun. Some spots might get 40cm+ drifts though, that dry stuff will be blown around a fair bit.
     
  37. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    12c in Melb. 5c in Canb. 11.7 in Adelaide as the leading edge hits. If I was in Bright, I'd hit Falls Sunday and run the north maze down into the service road. Pick me up at the toll gates. IMO
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC total snowfall ( inches with the usual math ) for Vicco.Is that bullseye where i think it is ?
     
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  39. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bawbs o_O?
     
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  40. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I commented earlier that "this is the one we have been waiting for". What I meant was that this looks like the one that opens up the sub 1300m runs. 2m up top. 1m at 1500m.... a good 50cm at 1100 (after this event). This opens up aspects we have not seen since Syd Olympics. If we can crack 3m up top then its generational. Those with the skills and means should smash it and send us picks. BUT be safe!
     
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  41. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Totes agree mate, and Buller arguably has the sickest low altitude terrain around, and stands to benefit nicely from this event.
     
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  42. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at the winds and possible squalls/thunderstorms for my flight to tas today.

    Looks gnarly. Am I wrong?
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    From where ?
     
  44. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tullamarine to Wynyard /Burnie Middayish
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    In a SAAB? Sounds fun.
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shear should decrease a little as the day goes on, and somewhat less intense as you move South. This is a shear tendency plot at 7am. Still a bit wild though.
     
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  47. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Hard Yards

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    I observe I’m having difficulty deciding between my usual Hotham or seeing if Buller scores big
     
  48. Steezey_Wonder

    Steezey_Wonder Hard Yards

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    Thoughts on how much snow will after lifts close today at Perisher?

    Considering a day trip from Sydney.

    Cheers,
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    15-20cm overnight IMO.
     
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  50. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like I was wrong about the wind. You were right CC and JB :thumbs: