Observations 15-20th June System

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Sno Sno SNO

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I can only assume that the moisture rolling through here now gives up the ghost before the MR then in the face of the SE'ly.
Certainly the snot still well to the west on the radar will likely wrap around into the northern parts of NSW like the models suggest
 

The Fallen

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Looks like the colder speckled moving through western Vic may deliver another 15cm across the board overnight.

1623910353130.png
 

The Fallen

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I can only assume that the moisture rolling through here now gives up the ghost before the MR then in the face of the SE'ly.
Certainly the snot still well to the west on the radar will likely wrap around into the northern parts of NSW like the models suggest

It shouldn't give up. Look to the west Tas coast to see what will hit as it rotates.

Current Vic ALPS moisture is off Tassy.

NSW Moisture is western Vic and will rotate around the low.

Hopefully it feeds as it deepens offshore Bega so it starts to draw from the SE......

Its now a Tasman low so it will do its thing.


1623910664042.png
 
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The Fallen

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It shouldn't give up. Look to the west Tas coast to see what will hit as it rotates.

Current Vic ALPS moisture is off Tassy.

NSW Moisture is western Vic and will rotate around the low.

Hopefully it feeds as it deepens offshore Bega so it starts to draw from the SE......

Its now a Tasman low so it will do its thing.


1623910664042.png

Also worth keeling in mind that the central and eastern Vic is already moisture soaked which reduces evaporation (yes it happens overnight) meaning that moisture carry from west vic to central should be the best possible..

Add in altitude convection and we should see measurable white by morning.

IMO
 
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Ret-ro

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-1.5 in Perisher , just below zero in Smiggs.. wind blown wet snow this time

9B5ACE53-C53B-45DC-9E05-3F95370AF177.jpeg
 
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The Fallen

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The Tassy wrap is dropping pressure as its feeding so should mix with the Central Vic Speckle to form a nice convergence over the Alps.

Timing is crucial but timing looks good for a crash bang above 1500m

Game is on


1623938724574.png
 
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The Fallen

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Halve the distance between the west speckled and the Tassy wrap.... they will meet closely.....

The Tassy wrap is still cold from last week so infeed surface water is cold = zero evaporation

Cold MID Vic and COLD/Frozen Gippsland + runoff feeding the Gipps = a solid up hill convection hitting Falls and Thredbo.... its falls and Threds
 

The Fallen

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SERIOUSLY....

Watch Falls and Thredbo.... Gotham may score? but its an Eastern System

Main range always scores.... if u do? check slides because its way overloaded....... WORST SINSE 91/92....... NO PREVIOUS,,,, BE SAFE
 
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Craig B

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I can only assume that the moisture rolling through here now gives up the ghost before the MR then in the face of the SE'ly.
Certainly the snot still well to the west on the radar will likely wrap around into the northern parts of NSW like the models suggest
Here ya go..

Shows it nicely, moisture from Adelaide diverted north and incoming south-east stuff from the Tasman Low.

Hmm, that should be a movie, click Satview to see it yourself: http://satview.bom.gov.au/
 

POW Hungry

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I observe that IMO that they under-reported yesterday, and again today comparing to the stake. What's wrong with them?

I observe cams look magic this morning
Stake is one location. In most resorts around the world totals are an aggregate of several sites in the resort, measured by ski patrol at dawn.
I.e. 2-3cm in the sheltered areas/trees (stake), and only traces on runs or exposed areas.

There’s no incentive for resorts to ‘under report’ IMO.
 
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PowWow

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Incoming! Da Blob heading NW. Looks good for 5cm. Tassie is snapping off its tail unfortunately.

1623965851079.jpeg
 
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Donza

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Stake is one location. In most resorts around the world totals are an aggregate of several sites in the resort, measured by ski patrol at dawn.
I.e. 2-3cm in the sheltered areas/trees (stake), and only traces on runs or exposed areas.

There’s no incentive for resorts to ‘under report’ IMO.
It also really depends who is doing the measuring ...
Sometimes its ski patrol..
Sometimes its mountain opps...
Sometimes its media from the carpark.
 

BlueHue

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Perhaps we need a ski.com.au snow depth measurement project taking advantage of all the regulars up on the mtn and touring each day. Set up a few sites near but outside of resort boundaries. Short walk up from Pipers Gap or Dead Horse Gap for fresh snow fall measurements in the 1600-1800m altitude range. TOuring on Paralyers or Twin Valleys - bang a rule in. Going out wide on Eyre, just pop out wide and take a snow pack depth at 1830m to equate to Spencers, same if doing a Golf Course Bowl or Dead Horse Gap run from Thredbo. Set a consistent method to start with ;)
 

robbo mcs

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Perhaps we need a ski.com.au snow depth measurement project taking advantage of all the regulars up on the mtn and touring each day. Set up a few sites near but outside of resort boundaries. Short walk up from Pipers Gap or Dead Horse Gap for fresh snow fall measurements in the 1600-1800m altitude range. TOuring on Paralyers or Twin Valleys - bang a rule in. Going out wide on Eyre, just pop out wide and take a snow pack depth at 1830m to equate to Spencers, same if doing a Golf Course Bowl or Dead Horse Gap run from Thredbo. Set a consistent method to start with ;)
Peak season I take measurements with my stock in the same spots Mt P following snowfalls, and often post in the perisher thread. Each season I usually pick an interesting landmark, tree, sign, jerry can, rock etc and take pics weekly or after a fall. There are other regulars that do the same. My experience is that Mt P Eyre side correlates very well with the spencers readings.

BTW snowing quite heavily when I left Perisher at 1pm, driving down the hill, the snow level was around 1600m
 

Billy Bob

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Is the quoted altitude of 1800 m for Thredbo's High Noon cam correct? Where I think the cam is situated (near Frostbite Cafe), the altitude is more like 1750 m according to Google Earth. It's relaxing to watch the snow fall whilst the newbies stack themselves...but I shouldn't be too harsh- I'm not a snow sports enthusiast!

The Basin cam should be freed from the grip of Elsa.
 

POW Hungry

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Is the quoted altitude of 1800 m for Thredbo's High Noon cam correct? Where I think the cam is situated (near Frostbite Cafe), the altitude is more like 1750 m according to Google Earth. It's relaxing to watch the snow fall whilst the newbies stack themselves...but I shouldn't be too harsh- I'm not a snow sports enthusiast!

The Basin cam should be freed from the grip of Elsa.
Yeah, High Noon cam sits ~1760m ASL

**EDIT: 1740m ASL**
 
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Billy Bob

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**EDIT: 1740m ASL**

Thanks; yes looks to sit right on that contour...or just above, depending on how much zoom there is. Who would have thought that commercial ski resorts would embellish things?

...I know, 60 m isn't much, but every 10 m counts in Australia...
 

blindo

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Oct 13, 2017
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generally a net loss yesterday @ PV - glorious clear morning but clouded in by 10am.

the nice flakage at lunchtime was brief. it turned to mizzle/foggy for most of the arvo. temps at Perisher AWS didn't change (12-5pm), so assume uppers became less supportive (if anyone cares to hindcast). surface was sticky off piste.

real 100% humidity SE soup & fog this morn without a freeze overnight. the white sallees are looking spectacular with wet bark though!
 
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