Predictions 15-21Aug

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
125,587
80,143
3,563
woonona
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I think it's redder and colder.
 

Roarkie

Addicted
Jun 8, 2015
346
245
113
Perisher Valley
Forecast for the rest of Wednesday

Summary
snow.png

Snow shower or two. Windy.
Chance of any rain: 60%
rain_60.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 45 to 65 km/h decreasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Thursday 17 August
Summary
snow.png

Min -1
Max 0
Snow showers, possibly heavy at times.
Possible rainfall: 45 to 70 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%
rain_95.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h tending west to northwesterly 55 to 75 km/h early in the morning then becoming westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Friday 18 August
Summary
snow.png

Min -4
Max -1
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h increasing to 45 to 65 km/h before dawn then tending southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Saturday 19 August
Summary
snow.png

Min -6
Max 0
Possible morning snow shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%
rain_30.gif

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a snow shower in the morning. Winds south to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.
 
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chriscross

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 1, 2005
2,466
1,424
363
The Foothills
Should get a top up Friday/Sat but whether it will be enough to open the whole mountain remains to be seen. I'm off to FC on Sunday so looking forward to conditions up there after this event. Hope BB gets plenty.
 

Roarkie

Addicted
Jun 8, 2015
346
245
113
Will everything that falls from now be snow for 1500m+? Heading down next weekend and got fingers crossed. Cheers.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,032
36,859
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Will everything that falls from now be snow for 1500m+? Heading down next weekend and got fingers crossed. Cheers.
I see a bubble of slightly warmer air between now and tomorrow AM. Enough for snow up high @ Falls though.
Tomorrow will be more of what Falls has endured today IMO (sorry, I haven't been following to what ele it's been falling to today but I'd expect ~1500m). Temps don't really dive until tomorrow arvo - as things start to dry up.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,032
36,859
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Is the westerly aspect a worry for Buller this time? Heading up tomorrow to ski Fri/Sat
Westerly wind you mean?
By Fri/Sat it's moving into solid neg temps @850hPa, coupled with some North in that wind (lacks the devilish, due West wind) it doesn't warrant too much risk IMO.
*but strange shit does happen on Buller
Screen Shot 2017-08-16 at 7.18.03 pm.png
 

MickM

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2001
4,628
4,134
363
Gordon, Vic
Westerly wind you mean?
By Fri/Sat it's moving into solid neg temps @850hPa, coupled with some North in that wind (lacks the devilish, due West wind) it doesn't warrant too much risk IMO.
Screen Shot 2017-08-16 at 7.18.03 pm.png
:cheers: I meant the wind, but I get confused if it is the westerly wind or direction of the front?
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
125,587
80,143
3,563
woonona
Funny how the only media source to report on it was The Daily Tele (you're better than that @Donzah ), I read it the other day thinking it was a satirical article... Bit like the 5cm increments.
Nah I heard about it on Jindy noticeboard... Guy was a customer of one of my best mates..
* at least we don't measure snowfall in the doorway of eagles nest.
**I've had 7 season passes at thredbo... So obviously don't hate the place.

Sat pic looks amazing... And odd.
I'm struggling to recall a similar one. Large oval rotation with multiple troughs
 

snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
5,911
4,378
563
54
vic
Should get a top up Friday/Sat but whether it will be enough to open the whole mountain remains to be seen. I'm off to FC on Sunday so looking forward to conditions up there after this event. Hope BB gets plenty.

Cheers chriscross - good to see smaller (& southern) resorts included in 'forecasts'.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,032
36,859
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Interesting little cut/off surface interaction over WA this w/e is looking like a little top-up for the majors by Monday PM.

The interesting thing is the momentum comes from a weakened cut-off interacting with the WA surface trough, which goes on to form an upper level low in the bight.
I think it's got minimum 5-10cm for the majors, with the pot. to surprise with a bit more if it develops more in the bight than the models suggest IMO.
gfs_midRH_aus_20.png

gfs_z500_vort_aus_18.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,032
36,859
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Interesting little cut/off surface interaction over WA this w/e is looking like a little top-up for the majors by Monday PM.

The interesting thing is the momentum comes from a weakened cut-off interacting with the WA surface trough, which goes on to form an upper level low in the bight.
I think it's got minimum 5-10cm for the majors, with the pot. to surprise with a bit more if it develops more in the bight than the models suggest IMO.
gfs_midRH_aus_20.png

gfs_z500_vort_aus_18.png
AXS
Screen Shot 2017-08-16 at 8.43.07 pm.png

EC 12hr QPF (easily cold enough on EC)
Screen Shot 2017-08-16 at 8.46.54 pm.png
 
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Skichic2

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Feb 22, 2017
10,955
20,991
813
What part? What time of day?
Doing the cross could be problematic before sunrise.

Anything after looks reasonably dry, but I'd anticipate snow on the road.
From Tumut across to Adaminaby, time of day depends upon conditions.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,032
36,859
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
AWD but low clearence. Traction isn't a big issue, but a foot of snow in between the tyres might be. Good thing I'm not driving up there tomorrow ey.
Bugger all chance of a foot down to Bullocks Flat Friday morning, I reckon. Penderlea Gap might be a bit of work, but temps don't duck below 1100m until Friday night, and even then you're talking a few cents IMO.
 
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Roarkie

Addicted
Jun 8, 2015
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With 40-45cm of snow fallen already at Perisher, and another 20-30cm tonight, I would definitely expect 80cm by Saturday morning IMO. Would be a really good result and top end of most forecasts.
 
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