Predictions 15-21Aug

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it's redder and colder.
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Moisture through the backdoor, a Thredbo speshie.
     
  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Chain to tube
     
  5. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's systems like these which we underestimate imo...
     
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still some nice cold and relative vort punching through the Alps on Friday.
     
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  7. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    They finally called 'snow' for tomorrow (fc up to 70mm)

    As opposed to the last event which only ever reached 'snow showers'. Lel.

    In vic
     
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  8. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    That Sunday chart looks primed IMO
     
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  9. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Perisher Valley
    Forecast for the rest of Wednesday

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 45 to 65 km/h decreasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the late evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Thursday 17 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 0
    Snow showers, possibly heavy at times.
    Possible rainfall: 45 to 70 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h tending west to northwesterly 55 to 75 km/h early in the morning then becoming westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the late evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

    Friday 18 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max -1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h increasing to 45 to 65 km/h before dawn then tending southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Saturday 19 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -6
    Max 0
    Possible morning snow shower.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 30% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a snow shower in the morning. Winds south to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.
     
    #459 Roarkie, Aug 16, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2017
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  10. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That wind direction and strength has windhold written over it although the BOM are forecasting westerlies.
     
  11. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Prognosis for BB ???? :rolleyes::rolleyes: Thinking of popping into the local ........................ church on the way home ..:angel:
     
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  12. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should get a top up Friday/Sat but whether it will be enough to open the whole mountain remains to be seen. I'm off to FC on Sunday so looking forward to conditions up there after this event. Hope BB gets plenty.
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A couple of advection comparisons. Warmth be gone.
     
  14. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Will everything that falls from now be snow for 1500m+? Heading down next weekend and got fingers crossed. Cheers.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see a bubble of slightly warmer air between now and tomorrow AM. Enough for snow up high @ Falls though.
    Tomorrow will be more of what Falls has endured today IMO (sorry, I haven't been following to what ele it's been falling to today but I'd expect ~1500m). Temps don't really dive until tomorrow arvo - as things start to dry up.
     
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  16. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Is the westerly aspect a worry for Buller this time? Heading up tomorrow to ski Fri/Sat
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Westerly wind you mean?
    By Fri/Sat it's moving into solid neg temps @850hPa, coupled with some North in that wind (lacks the devilish, due West wind) it doesn't warrant too much risk IMO.
    *but strange shit does happen on Buller
     
  18. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    :cheers: I meant the wind, but I get confused if it is the westerly wind or direction of the front?
     
  19. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Stay on topic..

    Always wanted to say that :p

    I predict good times ahead.

    Wow 1,000 post as well haha.
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jokes aside, you were right @Donzah, that cold air for BM/CT's is all but gone for Friday now.
     
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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah I heard about it on Jindy noticeboard... Guy was a customer of one of my best mates..
    * at least we don't measure snowfall in the doorway of eagles nest.
    **I've had 7 season passes at thredbo... So obviously don't hate the place.

    Sat pic looks amazing... And odd.
    I'm struggling to recall a similar one. Large oval rotation with multiple troughs
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pressure..
    Look how far the low is offshore.
    BMs need lows tight and fetch onshore.
     
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  23. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Cheers chriscross - good to see smaller (& southern) resorts included in 'forecasts'.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting little cut/off surface interaction over WA this w/e is looking like a little top-up for the majors by Monday PM.

    The interesting thing is the momentum comes from a weakened cut-off interacting with the WA surface trough, which goes on to form an upper level low in the bight.
    I think it's got minimum 5-10cm for the majors, with the pot. to surprise with a bit more if it develops more in the bight than the models suggest IMO.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #474 POW_hungry, Aug 16, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2017
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  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks like maybe 2-5cm Monday and 2-5cm on Wednesday. But doesn't look too bad.
    Perhaps a little more for Vic...
    Otherwise not bad, should be some sun later in the week.
    Up at Buller Wednesday-Sunday, getting excited.
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday window looks very brief IMO. Dat divergence .
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS

    EC 12hr QPF (easily cold enough on EC)
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it dips south of the jet, I think we may see some changes. But yeah, as it stands; it's a 16 y.o. one nighter.
     
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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday is a Western Vic kinda day IMO.
     
  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Peaking circa Sunday arvo/ evening. Wimmera could do with a bit anyway.
     
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  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I worry about mid latitude lows.
    They are like a 7/113 chance
     
  32. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thoughts on conditions along the Snowy Mountains Hiway Friday?
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What part? What time of day?
    Doing the cross could be problematic before sunrise.

    Anything after looks reasonably dry, but I'd anticipate snow on the road.
     
  34. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    From Tumut across to Adaminaby, time of day depends upon conditions.
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Road surfaces freeze after sundown Friday
     
  36. Maroubra Seal

    Maroubra Seal Hard Yards

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    Better make my drive from the Ski Tube to Thredbo before sundown then. How much snow you reckon might accumulate during the day at Bullocks Flat (1100m) on Friday? Take a punt!
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not enough to be of concern to the average 2WD.
     
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  38. Maroubra Seal

    Maroubra Seal Hard Yards

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    AWD but low clearence. Traction isn't a big issue, but a foot of snow in between the tyres might be. Good thing I'm not driving up there tomorrow ey.
     
  39. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some dick is at it again

    [​IMG]
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bugger all chance of a foot down to Bullocks Flat Friday morning, I reckon. Penderlea Gap might be a bit of work, but temps don't duck below 1100m until Friday night, and even then you're talking a few cents IMO.
     
    #490 POW_hungry, Aug 16, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2017
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  41. blowfin

    blowfin One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]
    This looks a fair bit different than it did first thing this morning.
     
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  42. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    The monday/Tuesday follow up looks like it could be alright IMO

    12Z GFS doesnt like though.
     
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  43. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ridgey high is ridgey.
     
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Waving its hand 'high guize, remember me?'
     
  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Access R looks like it clears Saturday Arvo.

    Maybe earlier
     
  46. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pleased to see people are seeing interesting things for next week. Will be in the mts. Does it need a new thread, or not?
     
  47. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher forecast tomorrow "heavy snow falls possible".

    Forecast max for Sydney is just 16C for both Friday and Saturday which would make it the 2 coldest days this winter so far.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    With 40-45cm of snow fallen already at Perisher, and another 20-30cm tonight, I would definitely expect 80cm by Saturday morning IMO. Would be a really good result and top end of most forecasts.
     
  50. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    When was the last time we had 2 x 3 Foot Storms(TM)
     
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