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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.
I think it's redder and colder.
Moisture through the backdoor, a Thredbo speshie.
Chain to tube
It's systems like these which we underestimate imo...
Still some nice cold and relative vort punching through the Alps on Friday.
They finally called 'snow' for tomorrow (fc up to 70mm)
As opposed to the last event which only ever reached 'snow showers'. Lel.
That Sunday chart looks primed IMO
Forecast for the rest of Wednesday
Snow shower or two. Windy.
Chance of any rain: 60%
Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 45 to 65 km/h decreasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the late evening.
Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]
Thursday 17 August
Snow showers, possibly heavy at times.
Possible rainfall: 45 to 70 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%
Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h tending west to northwesterly 55 to 75 km/h early in the morning then becoming westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the late evening.
Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]
Friday 18 August
Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h increasing to 45 to 65 km/h before dawn then tending southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the evening.
Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]
Saturday 19 August
Possible morning snow shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%
Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a snow shower in the morning. Winds south to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.
That wind direction and strength has windhold written over it although the BOM are forecasting westerlies.
Prognosis for BB ???? Thinking of popping into the local ........................ church on the way home ..
Should get a top up Friday/Sat but whether it will be enough to open the whole mountain remains to be seen. I'm off to FC on Sunday so looking forward to conditions up there after this event. Hope BB gets plenty.
A couple of advection comparisons. Warmth be gone.
Will everything that falls from now be snow for 1500m+? Heading down next weekend and got fingers crossed. Cheers.
I see a bubble of slightly warmer air between now and tomorrow AM. Enough for snow up high @ Falls though.
Tomorrow will be more of what Falls has endured today IMO (sorry, I haven't been following to what ele it's been falling to today but I'd expect ~1500m). Temps don't really dive until tomorrow arvo - as things start to dry up.
Is the westerly aspect a worry for Buller this time? Heading up tomorrow to ski Fri/Sat
Westerly wind you mean?
By Fri/Sat it's moving into solid neg temps @850hPa, coupled with some North in that wind (lacks the devilish, due West wind) it doesn't warrant too much risk IMO.
*but strange shit does happen on Buller
I meant the wind, but I get confused if it is the westerly wind or direction of the front?
Stay on topic..
Always wanted to say that
I predict good times ahead.
Wow 1,000 post as well haha.
Jokes aside, you were right @Donzah, that cold air for BM/CT's is all but gone for Friday now.
Nah I heard about it on Jindy noticeboard... Guy was a customer of one of my best mates..
* at least we don't measure snowfall in the doorway of eagles nest.
**I've had 7 season passes at thredbo... So obviously don't hate the place.
Sat pic looks amazing... And odd.
I'm struggling to recall a similar one. Large oval rotation with multiple troughs
Look how far the low is offshore.
BMs need lows tight and fetch onshore.
Cheers chriscross - good to see smaller (& southern) resorts included in 'forecasts'.
Interesting little cut/off surface interaction over WA this w/e is looking like a little top-up for the majors by Monday PM.
The interesting thing is the momentum comes from a weakened cut-off interacting with the WA surface trough, which goes on to form an upper level low in the bight.
I think it's got minimum 5-10cm for the majors, with the pot. to surprise with a bit more if it develops more in the bight than the models suggest IMO.
EC looks like maybe 2-5cm Monday and 2-5cm on Wednesday. But doesn't look too bad.
Perhaps a little more for Vic...
Otherwise not bad, should be some sun later in the week.
Up at Buller Wednesday-Sunday, getting excited.
Monday window looks very brief IMO. Dat divergence .
EC 12hr QPF (easily cold enough on EC)
If it dips south of the jet, I think we may see some changes. But yeah, as it stands; it's a 16 y.o. one nighter.
Monday is a Western Vic kinda day IMO.
Peaking circa Sunday arvo/ evening. Wimmera could do with a bit anyway.
I worry about mid latitude lows.
They are like a 7/113 chance
Thoughts on conditions along the Snowy Mountains Hiway Friday?
What part? What time of day?
Doing the cross could be problematic before sunrise.
Anything after looks reasonably dry, but I'd anticipate snow on the road.
From Tumut across to Adaminaby, time of day depends upon conditions.
Road surfaces freeze after sundown Friday
Better make my drive from the Ski Tube to Thredbo before sundown then. How much snow you reckon might accumulate during the day at Bullocks Flat (1100m) on Friday? Take a punt!
Not enough to be of concern to the average 2WD.
AWD but low clearence. Traction isn't a big issue, but a foot of snow in between the tyres might be. Good thing I'm not driving up there tomorrow ey.
Some dick is at it again
Bugger all chance of a foot down to Bullocks Flat Friday morning, I reckon. Penderlea Gap might be a bit of work, but temps don't duck below 1100m until Friday night, and even then you're talking a few cents IMO.
This looks a fair bit different than it did first thing this morning.
The monday/Tuesday follow up looks like it could be alright IMO
12Z GFS doesnt like though.
Ridgey high is ridgey.
Waving its hand 'high guize, remember me?'
Access R looks like it clears Saturday Arvo.
Pleased to see people are seeing interesting things for next week. Will be in the mts. Does it need a new thread, or not?
Perisher forecast tomorrow "heavy snow falls possible".
Forecast max for Sydney is just 16C for both Friday and Saturday which would make it the 2 coldest days this winter so far.
Oh @Lady Penelope looky looky what we have here for Perisher.
With 40-45cm of snow fallen already at Perisher, and another 20-30cm tonight, I would definitely expect 80cm by Saturday morning IMO. Would be a really good result and top end of most forecasts.
When was the last time we had 2 x 3 Foot Storms(TM)