Predictions 15-21Aug

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looking pretty solid at 192h. Still a long way to go though.
     
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  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yup. Let the kids do their thing and I go off to some black runs.:thumbs:
     
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  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I missed last weekend and this week. :cry:
    Had to cancel this weekend last minute.:(

    This is looking very good*
    The big 3 are all pretty much on this.

    plus AXS G

    [​IMG]

    *192hrs
     
  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    let's talk in 4 days...
     
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  5. Belly

    Belly Addicted Member
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    I don't reckon frog is feeling big love from this one, but 20cm still helps, especially with the pre frontal rain forecast.
     
  6. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    so?
     
  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    EC 10 dayer :eek: fwiw

     
  8. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Next thurs-friday looks good IMO. But that cold dry southerly setup sat-sunday won't do much in NSW except blow across the lift lines and put things on hold. .
     
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  9. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    And some snow for Jindy and Cooma to excite people.
     
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  10. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    EC shows no precipitation on Thursday, GFS shows heavy snow.
    Friday is similar on both models, perhaps a little heavier on EC.
    Saturday looks better on EC.

    Both models kinda have a Sunday followup, but GFS's version is weak and flukey. EC has a solid system straight from the south, but I wonder how that is going to interact with the high building in from the west.
     
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  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yes. 1039 H does give some cause for concern.
    Lets hope it stalls a tad / holds it's position , provides the trailing anchor we desire Sth of WA , to give some gusto to the forecast system.
     
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  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    4 day map. A bit wet at first but finishing with a big big hook. The high is very very weak.

    This will develop IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Active Member

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    Is this for the next few days or the date range?
     
  14. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    The maps are the next 4 days (as they clearly say!)

    But it's the set up for the date range that we are watching

    And it's noice....
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    15th looks wet IMO
     
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  16. Kopite

    Kopite New Member

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    From what little I know, I'm not too confident on the temperatures on this one yet. It's looking dicey for rain or snow at this stage...
     
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Yeah i was looking at the progression and development from the 4 Day Chart. But I did not check the forecasted Jet Stream may cause havoc with the cold air supply. The jet stream goes zonal. Anyway it is only Access G.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep.
    500's are warm af.
    [​IMG]

    But the follow up is the biz...we hope
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Hot off the cloud...booyah !
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

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    are BOM on th money?

    today

    [​IMG]
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers, most likely later this evening. Winds gusty west to northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h, strengthening to 50 to 70 km/h late tonight, and increasing to 80 to 100 km/h over the Alpine peaks.

    Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Saturday 12 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 2
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 50 to 70 km/h decreasing to 45 to 60 km/h in the late afternoon. Winds tending 80 to 100 km/h about the Alpine peaks.

    Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    7 day Town Forecasts
    Precis Icon Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Thredbo Top Station -2 -1
    [​IMG] Perisher Valley -1 2
    Sunday 13 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 5
    Morning snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers in the morning. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/h.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Monday 14 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 6
    Possible afternoon shower.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 30% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

    Tuesday 15 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 6
    Showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h.

    Wednesday 16 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 3
    Showers or snow easing.
    Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers or snow, most likely during the morning. Winds northwesterly 45 to 55 km/h decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

    Thursday 17 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 3
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.

    Friday 18 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 20 to 25 km/h turning westerly during the day.
     
  21. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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  22. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Posts about date range only please.

    15th and 16th are being discussed in the BBQ
     
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  23. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    Models still wavering over the period, GFS going all in for Friday while ACCESSG is wavering on temp for Friday but likes the Sunday evening for a good hit of snow.... Can't help but ignore my own 4 day rule given Thredbo it is from 20th - 27th.
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Certainly looks cold at 1500 metres after it arrives on GFS.
     
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  25. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone New Member

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    That's a lotta blue

    [​IMG]

    Talk about snow in strange places! classic GFS

    [​IMG]
     
    #75 nickxylophone, Aug 12, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2017
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Still a long way out but very tidy conditions for strong vertical velocity ( coloured scale) = adiabatic lift .
     
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  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Outer Metro Melb, Otways, South Gipp Snow???? That's highly doubtful.
     
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  28. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Fantasy land that chart says to me!!!
     
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  29. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    GFS is full in on a Monday week system, EC doesn't want to hear it. I would be skiing 2 days later, so would be incredible for me. But something inside me tells me to downplay it, especially the ridiculous low level snow bit. Something to keep an eye on though.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Sunday/Monday have waxed and waned throughout the runs. It's a full ridge out on recent runs.
    Thursday eve/Friday is still the the solid money shot IMO.
     
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  31. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Nice upgrade for Friday on 00z GFS imo. -35c at 500 HPa....
     
  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    -5 850's at 1400m Friday 10am..
    Oh my....
    Little bit too early to start counting precip but I think I'm in it between top of my boots & my knees.
    Which would be more accurately measured as 2 or 3 Gatorade bottles.
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Feels a bit ridgy on EC, but still enough to keep us all interested.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    What are your current predictions for snowfall amounts over this period @Claude Cat as I'm semi contemplating a weekend trip for NSW
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Fluctuates from run to run.
    Currently looking like 30-40mm of rain for the 15-16th, becoming snow late on the 16th and it should keep snowing through the 19th, for 50cm or so. IMO
    I'm thinking of expanding the date range on this thread to include the 15th and 16th, because there's no real break between the systems.
     
    #85 Claude Cat, Aug 12, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2017
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  37. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Tonights GFS is epic. Another 50-70cm if it plays out like that IMO.
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS showed warm 2 metre temps for today back on Tuesday.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    yes, it's going to rain, rather heavily on the 15th and 16th.
    IMO
     
  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Not often you get a big rain event mid August
     
  41. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    Really? I can think of plenty. Just after the big 2012 dump there was 100mm of rain that opened up creeks in the Thredbo runs.
     
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  42. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Last year we had the July event, even less frequent, its one of the few I have seen. More common in September IMO.
     
  43. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    Was 'Lake Perisher' in July?
     
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  44. peski

    peski Active Member

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    Sure was.
     

    Attached Files:

  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    And it was far king good riding after this when the temps dropped and Huey delivered the dry stuff.
    Edit - this week clear stuff may be blessing in disguise for the layering issues in the bc.
     
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  46. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    EC is a 2 foot storm this morn

    Edit: as is axs and GFS

    (After the pain!)
     
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  47. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    pondskim anyone?
     
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  48. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    40-50mm then 50-70cm above 1500m from the latest maps IMO
     
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  49. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    40-50mm then 50-70cm above 1500m from the latest maps IMO
     
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  50. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    That's how I see them too
     
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