Predictions 15-21Aug

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.

  1. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I completely disagree
     
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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS - Tuesday wet and warm ,Wed drier , Thursday 15- 20 snow, Friday/ Sat perhaps another 10 cm is what i see atm IMO.
     
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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    EC cleared out by Friday.
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Basicly a period of air mass advection- in this case veering winds causing warm air advection. Tricky situation regarding air mass movement when topography is included into the equation. Hopefully by late Wed we can return to a more favourable balance.
     
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  5. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    For NSW or VIC? Or both?
     
  6. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    More NSW I was looking at.
     
  7. Mctavish

    Mctavish Well-Known Member

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    GFS consistently showing high moisture totals. Tuesday definitely wet; Wednesday probably still wet - Maybe late Wednesday goodness returns. Thursday on looking better.
     
  8. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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  9. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    I see what you did there. :)
     
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  10. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

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    what does the dotted line on thursdays Bom 4 dayer signify?
     

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  11. derwent

    derwent Well-Known Member

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    A trough of goodness :) and pow pow friday
     
    #111 derwent, Aug 13, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2017
  12. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Trough. There is a legend at the top:)
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looking mighty fine from the 17th through to the 19th.



    Longer duration event on GFS



    CMC is siding with EC
     
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  14. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone New Member

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    GFS has very low freezing levels for the 18th in tassie
     
  15. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Rain totals bumped up for Tuesday. Hopefully a net gain?
     
  16. derwent

    derwent Well-Known Member

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    Didn't know you rated @Karicta so highly Jelly ;)
     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Worth throwing a sicky on Thurs IMO.
     
  18. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Im liking the prog temps after Thursday, but dislike moisture Tues/Wed. Looks a bit two steps back one forward for below 1700, possible gain or equal above?
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Not too shabby.
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Yep Thursday is mayhem. Conflicting air masses .
     
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  21. toughnut

    toughnut Active Member

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    Does conflicting air masses mean a fair amount of instability which could lead to greater precip/snow totals?
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Virtually just that. Strong divergence in that prog indicates good lift throughout the mid & upper-levels = lift and frontal development.
     
  23. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    So should I drive up Thu night?
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    You'll be driving in the thick of it Thursday night. If you want to beat it to Buller, Thursday AM/Early arvo IMO.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Haven't looked at the models for a couple of days now, but wow. EC and GFS has the cold air in alot earlier (Thursday AM) with some ball breaking totals.
    Thursday Arvo, Friday AM looks solid. That little washout Tuesday/Wednesday 'aint gonna matter too much come Saturday (Welcome to Australia).
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO it looks like snow on Wednesday from mid morning above 1800, slowly lowering to 1400m or so by mid-afternoon.
    Might take a bit longer at Buller, but by early am on Thursday it should all be happening IMO.
     
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  27. Adamski

    Adamski Active Member

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    Booked in for Sat, Sun, Mon... what runs will be open in Thredbo as a result of this?
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Maatee.... C'mon we're not the resorts.
    Thredbo has most of the terrain open now, common sense suggests expect more of the same IMO.
     
  29. Adamski

    Adamski Active Member

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    I was only joking. Appears only the Schuss and Michaels Mistake not open on the trail status currently.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    But kinda not though, huh...

    Perisher totals:
     
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  31. travelislife

    travelislife Dedicated Member
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    Buller Thursday, worth it?
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Check winds. Doubt any of majors will be worth a slide Thursday IMO.
     
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  33. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Too windy, unless you wanna hike. Friday will be a much better bet. Little winds, heaps of fresh snow, if you can get up there.
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    06Z GFS backing off the numbers somewhat.
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

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    I'm not a believer. Sorry
    A foot storm.
     
  36. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Above 1600 ish !!


     
  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    40mm in 24 hr to 10.00 Wed.
    Per BSCH.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  39. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Added up by 3hrly.
    Eg
     
  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    But that will probably fall as rain.
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think 30-50cm is likely throughout Thurs/Fri/Sat, with Southern resorts the lower-end of the scale.
    Whilst Southern resorts will benefit here, things start to dry out Friday as winds swing out from the SW on Friday.

    I do see the potential for low level snow by Friday eve for Hobart Suburbs/Southern Tas above 300m.
    Snow to as low as 500/700m for Vic & NSW respectively IMO.
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    The mayhem also means strong likelihood for warm air advection in the vertical- figure on right = higher freeze levels.
     
    #142 Kletterer, Aug 13, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2017
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Always love a good Trowal set-up, but I don't think so this time around. Maybe for West coast Tas?

    You tend to get them in close proximity to the closed cell/cut off low, these are looking more like back-to-back fronts and troughs with the low well south of Tassie.
     
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  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yes.
    It's only just starting cool back down Wednesday morning.
     
  46. Telestrom

    Telestrom Addicted Member

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    BOM can't quite make their mind up for Tuesday. Depending on which forecast you read for Thredbo, it will either be 20-30mm or 45-60mm rain.
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

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    How you mean?
     
  48. Telestrom

    Telestrom Addicted Member

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  49. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

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  50. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

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    I'm a bit worried about the pressure on the back end. No embedded troughs ..atmosphere looks to dry out something shocking.
     
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