Predictions 15-21Aug

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.

  1. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    472
    Likes Received:
    443
    Location:
    Melbourne, Baw Baw
    IMO Baw Baw will be screwed ,rumours management already talking gearing down, which is code for shut down.
    Save $$$$
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  2. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,401
    Likes Received:
    22,761
    Location:
    South Co
    Just lacking one critical element.....until the weekend.
     
  3. Kopite

    Kopite One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2017
    Messages:
    536
    Likes Received:
    716
    Location:
    North Curly
    Got a very 50/50 feeling about this one. Really hoping it's a positive and it's backed up by some solid temps next week too... I'm still 2 weeks from my next sojourn to Perisher
     
  4. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    189
    Likes Received:
    101
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Cold air got to Esperance WA at 1430 today..... it needs to get a move on.
     
  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,933
    Likes Received:
    10,754
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Geez. How flakey are they!
     
  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    1,571
    Location:
    South
    Fully flaky.

    This is a solid event. Starting to show on access R now and a great clearing high to boot on Saturday night.

    Starting to like more and more.

    The 700 Hpa temps look cold.

    [​IMG]
    The 500 hpa temps looks a bit average.
    [​IMG]
    And the jet stream is not in my fav position.



    Is this what you mean by vertical shear. Can anyone explain a bit more??
     
  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    1,571
    Location:
    South
    I am bit confused by this air pool.
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,105
    Likes Received:
    20,339
    Location:
    Canberra
    Veering winds bro.
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,620
    Likes Received:
    65,070
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO it still looks like a 50/50 system. That is 50mm - then - 50cm. Should be a net gain. That's for the majors. Buller will be a little less of both.
     
  10. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    1,571
    Location:
    South
    Researching veering winds :thumbs:
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,963
    Likes Received:
    27,381
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    IMO -8 @ 700mb is about as marginal as it gets, not far behind it is -22C @ 500mb, the decent cold pool is through Thursday night - temps going well below -10 & -30 respectively.

    Do agree though, that jet 'aint exactly blowing my hair back either.
     
    Vermillion likes this.
  12. loweee

    loweee One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2002
    Messages:
    2,856
    Likes Received:
    697
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    I'm thinking a bit more clear stuff but still 50cm plus thursday friday above 1600m IMO. Similar to the perisher lake scenario last year with less initial damage. Status quo
     
    FourSquare04 and Claude Cat like this.
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,105
    Likes Received:
    20,339
    Location:
    Canberra
    The lower surface wind behavior is of greatest issue IMO.
     
    derwent and POW_hungry like this.
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    73,131
    Likes Received:
    28,165
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    Tomorrow will be the dicey one, how much rain we get to Wednesday will really set up how this one recovers. I am always skeptical when they talk big rainfall numbers from a front like this, but then again, that pesky trough keeps on feeding more warm moisture into it. That would be why a flood watch has been issued, coupled with the rain will be snow melt and there's a serious chance of landslides too I would have thought.
     
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    1,571
    Location:
    South
    Yep the first real wind and rain event to decimate the western side of the higher peaks. Its shame cause the western faces were loaded up way more than normal. Net gain on the Eastern side easily. Sustained Gust up 100 knots.

    IMO 700 Hpa represents the winds at the 2200 m in this type of event. FuXX if I would camp tomorrow night. BRRRR. Most of the rain will evaporate or turn to ice.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,401
    Likes Received:
    22,761
    Location:
    South Co
    It already be 3 degs on pv aws.
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  17. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,401
    Likes Received:
    22,761
    Location:
    South Co
    Couple of embedded troughs on the 4 dayer for Thursday pm / Friday am.
    [​IMG]

    Oh my...


     
  18. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,401
    Likes Received:
    22,761
    Location:
    South Co
    Oh and more important , them uppers be sweet. IMO.
     

    Attached Files:

  19. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,401
    Likes Received:
    22,761
    Location:
    South Co
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,963
    Likes Received:
    27,381
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    But it is Tuesday today.
     
    SAsurfa, Donzah and mick chopps like this.
  21. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,401
    Likes Received:
    22,761
    Location:
    South Co
    oh... yeah.
    feels like fugging Friday after yesterdays muther of a day.:(
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,809
    Likes Received:
    39,674
    Location:
    woonona
    All day...
     
    alexd likes this.
  23. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,401
    Likes Received:
    22,761
    Location:
    South Co
    Predictions here pls.
    These are observations.:zzz:
     
    Deanski and Donzah like this.
  24. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,686
    Likes Received:
    2,753
    Location:
    Manly, Sydney
    Haha I predict tomorrow be Wednesday.
     
    nfip, alexd and MarkV like this.
  25. Adamski

    Adamski Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    114
    Location:
    Sydney
    Has BOM gone mad? They're predicting up to 150cm Wed-Fri for Thredbo.
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,963
    Likes Received:
    27,381
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Today:

    Wednesday (@nfip that's tomorrow) :
     
    nfip likes this.
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,363
    Likes Received:
    58,612
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    no they're not.
    They've forecast 95-150mm of precipitation for the thredbo top station from Wednesday-Friday... Wednesday's forecast says Rain the Snow so half of that could be wiped out from rain. You can be damn sure it'll be rain for the bottom half of Thredbo most of the day.
     
    Deanski and POW_hungry like this.
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,963
    Likes Received:
    27,381
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    No you're interpreting it incorrectly. Tomorrow says Rain then Snow, which seems accurate to me.
    You're also taking the upper ranges - it's not right to say this location will receive 'x' amount based on that upper range only.
    This also does not translate to mm=cm in snowfall.
     
    Deanski, Vermillion, Bloke and 3 others like this.
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,363
    Likes Received:
    58,612
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Honestly, why do people bother looking at those forecasts? They're so misleading through their detail. Any Alpine district or town forecast that doesn't include freeze level is completely useless.
     
    Ted Harper and Deanski like this.
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,963
    Likes Received:
    27,381
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    In BoM's defense, it's tricky to indicate snowfall level on a day like Wed/Thurs as it going to fluctuate. More detail will mean the general public will interpret it incorrectly, even moreso. Should only be used a a 'general guide' IMO. You want detail? Pull it out of the models. Or just be completely slack/naive and ask someone on an online forum.
     
    Deanski, Vermillion and mick chopps like this.
  31. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2017
    Messages:
    252
    Likes Received:
    464
    My favourite comic shows freezing levels An inch of rain shouldn't kill Perisher or anything above 1700m.. will be as interesting to watch as the Blizzard of Oz was.
     
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,363
    Likes Received:
    58,612
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    They put them in the district forecasts, why not the town forecasts as well?
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  33. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    366
    Likes Received:
    275
    So bom say 25% chance of 150 .. bit on the high side
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,963
    Likes Received:
    27,381
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I've often wondered this. I have no idea.

    BUT I guess you and I know where to find them, but the general public need not that detail.
    TBH if I am hitting the BC, I am not looking at the town forecast, the district forecast is where I look to cross ref their broader scope.
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,963
    Likes Received:
    27,381
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    That's why it's at the top of the range. Completely plausible (despite low chance) if you ask me.
     
  36. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,109
    Likes Received:
    3,541
    Location:
    Wollongong
    IMO this is looking nowhere near as good as Blizzard of Oz 1.0 but take what you can get I guess at this stage
     
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,363
    Likes Received:
    58,612
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    well given that was the biggest storm we've had in a long long time, that's hardly surprising. 30-50cents to recover what was lost and a little bit more is a good result. We've got the base, just top ups from now thanks.
     
    alexd, Jellybeans and POW_hungry like this.
  38. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,109
    Likes Received:
    3,541
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Yes very true. Freezing levels look terrible this time in. Below 1600m is going to cop a drenching
     
  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,028
    Likes Received:
    16,075
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Wednesday:

    VIC: 1700m, Dusting (perhaps a little bit of wet snow as well)
    NSW: 1900m, 5-10cm.

    Thursday:

    VIC: 1500-1600m, 10-20cm
    NSW: 1600m, 40-50cm

    Friday:

    VIC: 700-800m, 15-25cm
    NSW: 800-900m, 25-35cm
    Saturday:

    VIC: 800m, Dusting.
    NSW: 900m, Dusting.




    The overall snowfall figure for Aus Snow, according to EC.
    NSW- 75-85cm
    VIC- 30-50cm

    IMO perhaps a little less for NSW...
     
    The Plowking and mick chopps like this.
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,363
    Likes Received:
    58,612
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    everything is going to cop a drenching... but net gain above ~1500m and even down to 1000m gets a token fall.
    And as I said, overall depth aint the thing anymore. All about the fresh top ups.
     
    #290 mick chopps, Aug 15, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2017
    Deanski, Claude Cat, alexd and 5 others like this.
  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,809
    Likes Received:
    39,674
    Location:
    woonona
    Better still ... copy and paste mountainwatch models onto PSR.
    That will get the punters frothing.

    Somelike this would be rad - from NZ
    Tomorrow - 16 August
    Fine, with increasing high cloud. Scattered rain developing about the divide in the evening, with snow down to 1600 metres.
    Wind at 1000 metres: Westerly 25 km/h rising to northerly gale 65 km/h in the evening.
    Wind at 2000 metres: Westerly 40 km/h rising to northwest severe gale 90 km/h in the evening.
    Free air freezing level: 1400 metres rising to 2000 metres later.
     
    nfip, skiingtk, Snow Blowey and 2 others like this.
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,963
    Likes Received:
    27,381
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep, to digress from this system, I think BoM has a long way to come in terms of displaying and communicating data to the general public. Is it any wonder why you have all these commercial, privately owned weather sites these days.
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  43. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    7,510
    Likes Received:
    6,880
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I am glad I made it up to Mt . Erica for the one good day of snow they had on the Baw Baw plateau after the big dump .
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,809
    Likes Received:
    39,674
    Location:
    woonona
    We can digress

    Metservice NZ is awesome.

    I guess its a result of so many people being dependant on the info in NZ. However they really seem to put effort into their forecasts.
     
    POW_hungry and mick chopps like this.
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    73,131
    Likes Received:
    28,165
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    I wouldnt say for 1 minute that the BoM dont put effort in their forecasts. But that doesnt mean they have enough people to do enough detailed forecasts for them. Funny enough, a lot of BoM forecasters run their own local weather pages, which are much more locally accurate than the BoM forecasts.
     
    nfip, telecrag, Claude Cat and 6 others like this.
  46. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,482
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    Bom forecast is for snow down to 500m in vic on Friday.

    Might have to head up to the dandenongs with the 2 yo and hope he sees snow falling for the first time....

    Edit: Jane says 600m on Saturday am
     
    FourSquare04 and Claude Cat like this.
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,963
    Likes Received:
    27,381
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    This is cold air is scaled back on GFS & EC this morning's runs. I think this will be relegated in the next day or two.
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,363
    Likes Received:
    58,612
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Donna Buang would be a better bet.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,963
    Likes Received:
    27,381
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    ...Those who wish to pursue this need to submit proposal and subject to approvals to be made public, at least this has been the process to those I've spoken to.
     
    Vermillion likes this.
  50. Adamski

    Adamski Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    114
    Location:
    Sydney
    I do know that for tomorrow they say rain and snow and I know that I'm taking the upper ranges (hence why i said 'up to'), but even if half of tomorrow's falls are rain, this will total 70-110mm snow Wed-Fri per BOM. Is that nuts?

    Edit: apparently not, according to jellybeans1000!
     
    #300 Adamski, Aug 15, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2017