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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.
Of course it would be!
Sat am surface temps
More referring to the fact it's not that much further than Mt D for a guarantee of snow, rather than a moderate chance. Actually, now that I think about it, might spin the idea to Mrs Chopps...
Correct. I'm an admin on one of the pages and there's certain things we can/cant post. Talk about red ****ing tape.
Sure why not? Wouldnt be many knobheads on that road on a Sunday trying to drive up a 2WD with no snow tires or chains and minimal direction from authorities. What could go wrong?
Go to Baw Baw.
Stay on topic.
that's true enough. But we don't all have a bed in Noogee for the night...
Access g still has the 528 thickness
Line up over southern vic early on
Would that still equate to snow
To 500m through southern vic?
Not nuts if you ask me. It's the mountains. Mountains scrape the moisture out of the sky.
Its cold enough
but will there be any juice to fall from the sky?
I live in the strezleki rangers in Gippsland vic, at about 4-450m asl.
Any chance I might see a flurry Friday
Night sat morning?
Usually do well in sw air stream
I think we'll have a really good idea Thursday arvo.
The temps being thrown about seem to lack consistency.
Some brief flurries methinks
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of the Central, East Gippsland, South West, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.
Issued at 11:00 am Tuesday, 15 August 2017.
A high pressure ridge over far eastern Victoria will move to the Tasman Sea this morning. A low pressure system and associated cold front are crossing the Bight. The front will enter western Victoria during Tuesday afternoon, reaching central Victoria by the evening then crossing the remainder of the State by Wednesday morning.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 70 to 80 km/h with peak gusts of around 110 km/h are expected to persist across elevated parts (above 1200 metres) of the North East, West & South Gippsland and East Gippsland districts and continue until Wednesday afternoon.
HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is expected to develop over the eastern ranges this evening and overnight, before easing during Wednesday morning, with snowfalls only expected to develop later Wednesday morning.
18 hour rainfall totals of 30 to 50mm are likely, however falls of 50 to 70mm are possible about the higher peaks.
From midnight Tuesday,
West to northwesterly wind squalls around 90km/h are expected to extend along coastal parts of Victoria, most likely associated with showers and thunderstorms.
Locations which may be affected include Warrnambool, Portland, Wonthaggi, Bright, Falls Creek and Mt Buller.
I am excited ...
Anyone want to take a punt on the 23rd - 27th ?
Nothing remotely aligned beyond 192hrs. Waste of time looking at beyond this IMO.
That's the timeframe for the merry go round ( as @Taipan suggested a month ago )..it should have plenty of precipitation..i haven't been game to hazard a guess on temp.
Central Bankers Control Weather don't forget.
Access R is still bloody mint compared to the synoptic on Metservice though. Numerical Analysis can be trusted, people can't. Oh Sigh the Tragedy of the Commons.
You sound like the sales rep of the Weather Models. Like your toast thin AF?
Lake Mtn. would be the best best , only 90 min.s by car from Melb. .
Actually the Sat looks Evilly good.
Rain before 7am in NSW.
But Thursday to Friday Night looks neat.
I was there on Sunday. It ain't 90mins. And given the low snow level on Friday Donna B will certainly suffice for a little play and potentially seeing a flake or two.
Mate AXS-R is ....
What snow level does the -12 700hpa
I'm not to sure how to interpret the above charts
I use that height roughly 3000 m AHD as there is very little localized distortions due to topography.
From experience when you have the above charts I think you have a freeze level of 800 m.
With a southerly feed (wind) the great dividing range can then get snow as its the first to get hit before the snowy mountains.
If the wind is NW then the snowy mountains gets the Snow and not the dividing range, as a general rule thumb.
Victoria is always somwhere in between IMO. But ask the other people from Vic.
About 800-900m. Cold air convection will be OK too with 500 HPa temp around -30c.
My understanding (and I'm sure I'll be corrected if wrong) is that at -12 degrees C at 700mb then the freeze level is about 1,000 m AMSL if you use the ISA lapse rate of 2 degrees per 1000 feet. So tend to agree with Wombat above that probably see snow down to about 700-800 meters as an estimate
Thredbo top station forecast, reminds me of Japow.
Some obscene totals there. Up to 155mm, most of it when the temps are negative. Wowsers.
Depends on air pressure . It varies.
Most of the 70 will fall while the temps are positive , sorry.
As I said this morning.... those bom town forecasts are laughably pointless. Utterly redundant.
Excuse my ignorance. What does the dark green bar refer to?
Keep an eye on Sunday night/Monday morning. 00Z GFS has an upper cold pool and low that might provide a top-up.
Remember these forecasts are Midnight to Midnight.
Whereas recording is 9am to 9am.
Dark green is Rain in that period
Light green is total accumulated.
No weatherzone bro. It's like you're new here or something...
Thursdays cold has been pushed South on GFS. Pesky Jet as well. Pressures are nice though. Next run please.
So my Met chart worked , but not my hotlinked axs?
. Of course it is. Thanks
All of that red is in sub zero temps.
3ft Storm(TM)? Shame about the wakeboarding beforehand.
What have they got for Wednesday night Thursday?
All in for BOM 3 Day from 10am Thursday to 10am Friday, be happy if it falls between that and GFS forecasts.
First one is all rain.
Second the 850hpa temps look ok ish , so wet snow to 1500m I'm thinking
yep. A shit tonne of rain! Forgotten by Thursday afternoon.