Predictions 15-21Aug

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.

  1. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Of course it would be!

    Sat am surface temps

    Effin cold!

    [​IMG]
     
  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    More referring to the fact it's not that much further than Mt D for a guarantee of snow, rather than a moderate chance. Actually, now that I think about it, might spin the idea to Mrs Chopps...
     
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  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Correct. I'm an admin on one of the pages and there's certain things we can/cant post. Talk about red ****ing tape.
     
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  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sure why not? Wouldnt be many knobheads on that road on a Sunday trying to drive up a 2WD with no snow tires or chains and minimal direction from authorities. What could go wrong?

    Go to Baw Baw.
     
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  6. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    that's true enough. But we don't all have a bed in Noogee for the night...
     
  7. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Access g still has the 528 thickness
    Line up over southern vic early on
    Saturday imo?
    Would that still equate to snow
    To 500m through southern vic?
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not nuts if you ask me. It's the mountains. Mountains scrape the moisture out of the sky.
     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its cold enough
    but will there be any juice to fall from the sky?
    doubtful
     
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  10. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I live in the strezleki rangers in Gippsland vic, at about 4-450m asl.
    Any chance I might see a flurry Friday
    Night sat morning?
    Usually do well in sw air stream
     
  11. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we'll have a really good idea Thursday arvo.
    The temps being thrown about seem to lack consistency.
     
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  12. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some brief flurries methinks
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in parts of the Central, East Gippsland, South West, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 11:00 am Tuesday, 15 August 2017.

    Weather Situation:
    A high pressure ridge over far eastern Victoria will move to the Tasman Sea this morning. A low pressure system and associated cold front are crossing the Bight. The front will enter western Victoria during Tuesday afternoon, reaching central Victoria by the evening then crossing the remainder of the State by Wednesday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 70 to 80 km/h with peak gusts of around 110 km/h are expected to persist across elevated parts (above 1200 metres) of the North East, West & South Gippsland and East Gippsland districts and continue until Wednesday afternoon.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is expected to develop over the eastern ranges this evening and overnight, before easing during Wednesday morning, with snowfalls only expected to develop later Wednesday morning.

    18 hour rainfall totals of 30 to 50mm are likely, however falls of 50 to 70mm are possible about the higher peaks.

    From midnight Tuesday,

    West to northwesterly wind squalls around 90km/h are expected to extend along coastal parts of Victoria, most likely associated with showers and thunderstorms.

    Locations which may be affected include Warrnambool, Portland, Wonthaggi, Bright, Falls Creek and Mt Buller.
     
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  14. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am excited ...

    Anyone want to take a punt on the 23rd - 27th ?
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing remotely aligned beyond 192hrs. Waste of time looking at beyond this IMO.
     
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  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's the timeframe for the merry go round ( as @Taipan suggested a month ago )..it should have plenty of precipitation..i haven't been game to hazard a guess on temp.
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    *72hrs
     
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  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    BOM Conspiracy.

    Central Bankers Control Weather don't forget.

    Access R is still bloody mint compared to the synoptic on Metservice though. Numerical Analysis can be trusted, people can't. Oh Sigh the Tragedy of the Commons.

    Looking Good
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You sound like the sales rep of the Weather Models. Like your toast thin AF?
     
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  20. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Lake Mtn. would be the best best , only 90 min.s by car from Melb. .
     
  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Actually the Sat looks Evilly good.
     
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  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Rain before 7am in NSW.

    [​IMG]
     
  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    But Thursday to Friday Night looks neat.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was there on Sunday. It ain't 90mins. And given the low snow level on Friday Donna B will certainly suffice for a little play and potentially seeing a flake or two.
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mate AXS-R is ....
    [​IMG]
     
  26. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    What snow level does the -12 700hpa
    Chart suggest?
    I'm not to sure how to interpret the above charts
     
  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I use that height roughly 3000 m AHD as there is very little localized distortions due to topography.

    From experience when you have the above charts I think you have a freeze level of 800 m.

    With a southerly feed (wind) the great dividing range can then get snow as its the first to get hit before the snowy mountains.

    If the wind is NW then the snowy mountains gets the Snow and not the dividing range, as a general rule thumb.

    Victoria is always somwhere in between IMO. But ask the other people from Vic.

    :thumbs:
     
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  28. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    About 800-900m. Cold air convection will be OK too with 500 HPa temp around -30c.
     
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  29. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

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    My understanding (and I'm sure I'll be corrected if wrong) is that at -12 degrees C at 700mb then the freeze level is about 1,000 m AMSL if you use the ISA lapse rate of 2 degrees per 1000 feet. So tend to agree with Wombat above that probably see snow down to about 700-800 meters as an estimate
     
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  30. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Thredbo top station forecast, reminds me of Japow.
     
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  31. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some obscene totals there. Up to 155mm, most of it when the temps are negative. Wowsers.
     
  32. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Depends on air pressure . It varies.
     
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Most of the 70 will fall while the temps are positive , sorry.
     
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  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    As I said this morning.... those bom town forecasts are laughably pointless. Utterly redundant.
     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    for Perisher
     
  36. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Excuse my ignorance. What does the dark green bar refer to?
     
  37. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Keep an eye on Sunday night/Monday morning. 00Z GFS has an upper cold pool and low that might provide a top-up.
     
  38. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Remember these forecasts are Midnight to Midnight.
    Whereas recording is 9am to 9am.
     
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dark green is Rain in that period
    Light green is total accumulated.
     
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No weatherzone bro. It's like you're new here or something...
     
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Thursdays cold has been pushed South on GFS. Pesky Jet as well. Pressures are nice though. Next run please.
     
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  42. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    So my Met chart worked , but not my hotlinked axs?
     
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  43. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    :headbang:. Of course it is. Thanks
     
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  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    All of that red is in sub zero temps.
     
  45. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    3ft Storm(TM)? Shame about the wakeboarding beforehand.
     
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  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    What have they got for Wednesday night Thursday?
     
  47. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    This..

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  48. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    All in for BOM 3 Day from 10am Thursday to 10am Friday, be happy if it falls between that and GFS forecasts.
     
  49. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    First one is all rain.
    Second the 850hpa temps look ok ish , so wet snow to 1500m I'm thinking
     
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  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep. A shit tonne of rain! Forgotten by Thursday afternoon.