Predictions 15-21Aug

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.

  1. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Yep.
     
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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    IMO this is where things start looking better. Vertical Velocity ramps up and we get a better taste of adiabatic lifting, 850 height is good.
     
  3. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Actually its Thredbo top station forecast.
     
  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I just don't see snow in Victoria ---apart from the peaks-until tomorrow night.
    Love to be proven wrong.
    Looks better Thursday though. 30 plus.
     
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  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Most importantly, clearing for the grand final preview in Adelaide.
     
  6. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Yeah, he only signed up this year. Ha ha ha...
     
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah , they are listed under "towns" on the BOM. As they don't forecast for Thredbo Village base.
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    What? Are you not aware????
     
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  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep agree, 1700-1800m tomorrow.
    A Main Range kinda day.
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    I am seeing considerably less precip tomorow than what has been forecast - perhaps backing off after 9- 10 pm tonight with an increase around 6 pm Wed. IMO
     
  11. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    That could only be a good thing I think.
     
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  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Near as I can tell the town forecasts are based around the location of the BOM AWS.... and it's listed in the BOM town forecasts also..... and without freeze level info it's pointless.
     
  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't spoil it...
     
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lel
     
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    *possible
     
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  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wrong sydney team.
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Double syd?
    ick
    *hope it doesn't rain
     
  18. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    looks like an upgrade to lower temps on 00GFS for the weekend and early next week. Maybe a bit more moisture too IMO
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looking to me like snowfalls descending to 1700m by circa mid-morning (8-10am) tomorrow. Switching back to rain for much of tomorrow below 1900m then back down to around 1700m by late arvo/early evening.
    I think it was mentioned yesterday, but tomorrow will tease the crap out of the cam watchers tomorrow.

    Going off EC, I think tomorrow will read something like;
    • 10cm above 1900m (with snow down at times down to 1700m)
    • Thursday 40cm
    • Friday 10-15cm for the majors.
    You could expect all below to be snow above 1500m IMO (Friday 10pm 36hr QPF).
     
    #369 POW_hungry, Aug 15, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2017
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  20. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM going for snow to 900M Friday and 700M Saturday NSW CT's and maybe 1000M NSW NT's Saturday
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Possibly drying up after midday Friday - not particularly in aggreeance with this but something to consider
     
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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    As per above post. Not particularly inspiring.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it's drying up rather quick Friday, but a dusting in the Central/Southern Tablelands is highly likely IMO.
     
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  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep the real dough will be Thursday and Tomorrow up high.
     
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  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Did I walk into the footy thread?
     
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  26. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    B.O.M reporting 48mm of rain at Buller today
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not a big anomaly for Buller.:out:
     
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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's a footy thread????
     
  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models always overcook the tail end. They whip that fantastic blue line towards qld
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So has BoM and Jane. Snow to 600m for Vic... Dreaming.
    ~1000m for ST's is what I am seeing Friday arvie. Dry as mother in laws kiss though.
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Gotta throw the Barrington Tops crew a few crumbs every now and then.
     
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  32. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Time for a ECL
     
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  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    vic.....Yeah Hotham Summit to bottom road runner chair at best. Imo
     
  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh no... what have I done...
     
  35. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Apparently only for victorians :crap:
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC / yr.no suggesting tomorrow will be better than some think.
    Hotham (1800m)



    Perisher Village
     
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Loads of people are getting sad about today. It's not the end of the world.
    Tomorrow will be fine above 1700-1800m
    Between 1500-1700m (and Buller) will probably fluctuate quite a bit. With some rain and snow, with the balance changing as per altitude.

    Thursday will be about 1500m, temps might go up to 1600-1700m in the afternoon. Before the main cold event Thurs night.

    Friday will be great skiing, I suggest you get up there.
    Weekend will be very busy, as the resorts will hype it up.
    Potential for snowfalls up to 90cm for NSW and 50cm for Victoria. A lot of that will be wet snow, but you take what you can get in Australia.
     
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  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've found yr.no to be off this year with its marginal temp type systems.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yr.no is just EC. No more, no less.
     
  41. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Yr.no for Hotham last Saturday was in optimistic fantasy land re:snow when compared to ECMWF charts.

    I think this trend will continue. I think Hotham will get a 'wintry mix' up high and rain in the valley tomorrow.
     
  42. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well it is the Norwegians...
     
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    So why the discrepancy?
     
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  44. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Yes but if you choose the wrong lat/long point to represent your location, or if your interpolation algorithm makes errors between vertical levels you can generate unrepresentative data.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    What readings are you taking and for where? Eg for yr.no at Hotham it's for the very peak of the mountain.
    The Norwegians don't put any "spin" on the EC numbers.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's true. As I just pointed out the Hotham numbers are for the peak, 1861m. If you're expecting the numbers, by yr.no at village or Snake Gully, you'll be sadly disappointed.
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    From the Main Range/Perisher Village Area.
    AccuWxPro for Standard EC collection.
    And Yr.no.
    There is definitely a difference between the two. I just wanna know why?
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There's at least 3 different Perisher locations on yr.no
    Without knowing exactly what locations each is at, it's pretty hard to make a determination which best matches ...

     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So many variables. So many. As CC points out what are your coords for the Main Range? Do they marry up with Perisher's (36.3883° S, 148.4010° E). The main range is an big region with huge variation in elevation.
    Also YrNo clearly outlines:

    You need to stipulate exactly what data you are grabbing to publish where your variables are. Only you have the answer to discrepancy.
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher Village Skew-T (1709m) 10AM tomorrow (EC00Z): ~1850FL, so snow to approx 1750m given the cooling uppers & 30kt Westerlies IMO.