Predictions 15-21Aug

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Nov 26, 2014
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IMO this is where things start looking better. Vertical Velocity ramps up and we get a better taste of adiabatic lifting, 850 height is good.
cook.gif
 

Donzah

Formerly know as Aldi whorehouse.
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Aug 3, 2017
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woonona
Most importantly, clearing for the grand final preview in Adelaide.
 

POW_hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Still looking to me like snowfalls descending to 1700m by circa mid-morning (8-10am) tomorrow. Switching back to rain for much of tomorrow below 1900m then back down to around 1700m by late arvo/early evening.
I think it was mentioned yesterday, but tomorrow will tease the crap out of the cam watchers tomorrow.

Going off EC, I think tomorrow will read something like;
  • 10cm above 1900m (with snow down at times down to 1700m)
  • Thursday 40cm
  • Friday 10-15cm for the majors.
You could expect all below to be snow above 1500m IMO (Friday 10pm 36hr QPF).
Screen Shot 2017-08-15 at 7.00.17 pm.png
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
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Loads of people are getting sad about today. It's not the end of the world.
Tomorrow will be fine above 1700-1800m
Between 1500-1700m (and Buller) will probably fluctuate quite a bit. With some rain and snow, with the balance changing as per altitude.

Thursday will be about 1500m, temps might go up to 1600-1700m in the afternoon. Before the main cold event Thurs night.

Friday will be great skiing, I suggest you get up there.
Weekend will be very busy, as the resorts will hype it up.
Potential for snowfalls up to 90cm for NSW and 50cm for Victoria. A lot of that will be wet snow, but you take what you can get in Australia.
 
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Donzah

Formerly know as Aldi whorehouse.
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I've found yr.no to be off this year with its marginal temp type systems.
 

Rush

Pool Room
Jul 26, 2000
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Yr.no for Hotham last Saturday was in optimistic fantasy land re:snow when compared to ECMWF charts.

I think this trend will continue. I think Hotham will get a 'wintry mix' up high and rain in the valley tomorrow.
 

Rush

Pool Room
Jul 26, 2000
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yr.no is just EC. No more, no less.
Yes but if you choose the wrong lat/long point to represent your location, or if your interpolation algorithm makes errors between vertical levels you can generate unrepresentative data.
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
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Yes but if you choose the wrong lat/long point to represent your location, or if your interpolation algorithm makes errors between vertical levels you can generate unrepresentative data.
That's true. As I just pointed out the Hotham numbers are for the peak, 1861m. If you're expecting the numbers, by yr.no at village or Snake Gully, you'll be sadly disappointed.
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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What readings are you taking and for where? Eg for yr.no at Hotham it's for the very peak of the mountain.
The Norwegians don't put any "spin" on the EC numbers.
From the Main Range/Perisher Village Area.
AccuWxPro for Standard EC collection.
And Yr.no.
There is definitely a difference between the two. I just wanna know why?
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
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From the Main Range/Perisher Village Area.
AccuWxPro for Standard EC collection.
And Yr.no.
There is definitely a difference between the two. I just wanna know why?
There's at least 3 different Perisher locations on yr.no
Without knowing exactly what locations each is at, it's pretty hard to make a determination which best matches ...

Perishern_no.PNG
 
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POW_hungry

Old n' Crusty
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From the Main Range/Perisher Village Area.
AccuWxPro for Standard EC collection.
And Yr.no.
There is definitely a difference between the two. I just wanna know why?
So many variables. So many. As CC points out what are your coords for the Main Range? Do they marry up with Perisher's (36.3883° S, 148.4010° E). The main range is an big region with huge variation in elevation.
Also YrNo clearly outlines:
Screen Shot 2017-08-15 at 9.12.08 pm.png

You need to stipulate exactly what data you are grabbing to publish where your variables are. Only you have the answer to discrepancy.
 
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