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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.
IMO this is where things start looking better. Vertical Velocity ramps up and we get a better taste of adiabatic lifting, 850 height is good.
Actually its Thredbo top station forecast.
I just don't see snow in Victoria ---apart from the peaks-until tomorrow night.
Love to be proven wrong.
Looks better Thursday though. 30 plus.
Most importantly, clearing for the grand final preview in Adelaide.
Yeah, he only signed up this year. Ha ha ha...
Yeah , they are listed under "towns" on the BOM. As they don't forecast for Thredbo Village base.
What? Are you not aware????
Yep agree, 1700-1800m tomorrow.
A Main Range kinda day.
I am seeing considerably less precip tomorow than what has been forecast - perhaps backing off after 9- 10 pm tonight with an increase around 6 pm Wed. IMO
That could only be a good thing I think.
Near as I can tell the town forecasts are based around the location of the BOM AWS.... and it's listed in the BOM town forecasts also..... and without freeze level info it's pointless.
Don't spoil it...
Wrong sydney team.
*hope it doesn't rain
looks like an upgrade to lower temps on 00GFS for the weekend and early next week. Maybe a bit more moisture too IMO
Still looking to me like snowfalls descending to 1700m by circa mid-morning (8-10am) tomorrow. Switching back to rain for much of tomorrow below 1900m then back down to around 1700m by late arvo/early evening.
I think it was mentioned yesterday, but tomorrow will tease the crap out of the cam watchers tomorrow.
Going off EC, I think tomorrow will read something like;
10cm above 1900m (with snow down at times down to 1700m)
Friday 10-15cm for the majors.
You could expect all below to be snow above 1500m IMO (Friday 10pm 36hr QPF).
BOM going for snow to 900M Friday and 700M Saturday NSW CT's and maybe 1000M NSW NT's Saturday
Possibly drying up after midday Friday - not particularly in aggreeance with this but something to consider
As per above post. Not particularly inspiring.
Yeah it's drying up rather quick Friday, but a dusting in the Central/Southern Tablelands is highly likely IMO.
Yep the real dough will be Thursday and Tomorrow up high.
Did I walk into the footy thread?
B.O.M reporting 48mm of rain at Buller today
Not a big anomaly for Buller.
There's a footy thread????
Models always overcook the tail end. They whip that fantastic blue line towards qld
So has BoM and Jane. Snow to 600m for Vic... Dreaming.
~1000m for ST's is what I am seeing Friday arvie. Dry as mother in laws kiss though.
Gotta throw the Barrington Tops crew a few crumbs every now and then.
Time for a ECL
vic.....Yeah Hotham Summit to bottom road runner chair at best. Imo
Oh no... what have I done...
Apparently only for victorians
Stay on topic.
EC / yr.no suggesting tomorrow will be better than some think.
Loads of people are getting sad about today. It's not the end of the world.
Tomorrow will be fine above 1700-1800m
Between 1500-1700m (and Buller) will probably fluctuate quite a bit. With some rain and snow, with the balance changing as per altitude.
Thursday will be about 1500m, temps might go up to 1600-1700m in the afternoon. Before the main cold event Thurs night.
Friday will be great skiing, I suggest you get up there.
Weekend will be very busy, as the resorts will hype it up.
Potential for snowfalls up to 90cm for NSW and 50cm for Victoria. A lot of that will be wet snow, but you take what you can get in Australia.
I've found yr.no to be off this year with its marginal temp type systems.
yr.no is just EC. No more, no less.
Yr.no for Hotham last Saturday was in optimistic fantasy land re:snow when compared to ECMWF charts.
I think this trend will continue. I think Hotham will get a 'wintry mix' up high and rain in the valley tomorrow.
Well it is the Norwegians...
So why the discrepancy?
Yes but if you choose the wrong lat/long point to represent your location, or if your interpolation algorithm makes errors between vertical levels you can generate unrepresentative data.
What readings are you taking and for where? Eg for yr.no at Hotham it's for the very peak of the mountain.
The Norwegians don't put any "spin" on the EC numbers.
That's true. As I just pointed out the Hotham numbers are for the peak, 1861m. If you're expecting the numbers, by yr.no at village or Snake Gully, you'll be sadly disappointed.
From the Main Range/Perisher Village Area.
AccuWxPro for Standard EC collection.
There is definitely a difference between the two. I just wanna know why?
There's at least 3 different Perisher locations on yr.no
Without knowing exactly what locations each is at, it's pretty hard to make a determination which best matches ...
So many variables. So many. As CC points out what are your coords for the Main Range? Do they marry up with Perisher's (36.3883° S, 148.4010° E). The main range is an big region with huge variation in elevation.
Also YrNo clearly outlines:
You need to stipulate exactly what data you are grabbing to publish where your variables are. Only you have the answer to discrepancy.
Perisher Village Skew-T (1709m) 10AM tomorrow (EC00Z): ~1850FL, so snow to approx 1750m given the cooling uppers & 30kt Westerlies IMO.