Predictions 15-21Aug

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.

  1. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fixed.
    Now stay on topic...
     
  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The way this event is being portrayed on social media will result in a lot of initial disappointment for Victorian punters......
     
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  3. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Net loss IMO
     
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  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Particularly your local unfortunately.
    About break even the other 2.
     
  5. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    40+mm of rain at Perisher today is pretty ugly - hope you're all correct about cooler temps tomorrow. Sadly I also think this will be a net loss, but at least there was something there to start with!
     
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  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    So I did some investigating, and you were right.
    There was a problem with the AccuWxPro snow accum totals.
    Perhaps an issue with the coordinates.
    The Yr.no and AccuWxPro QPF totals were the same.
    Sorry for causing that misunderstanding of mine:).
     
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  7. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I fear we will be looking at between 100 - 130 mm before we see snow. Lower slopes will be smashed Wednesday. Hopefully we get a solid dump Thursday to repair the wash outs. Lake Perisher grows as I type. Daylight will not be pretty.
     
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  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And 130mm of disappointment for nsw so far!
    Alas. Snow soon.
     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    F..k my garden could do with 130mm
    Its as dry as a nuns nasty on the coast.
     
  10. Deanski

    Deanski Addicted

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    So pow, claude, jellybeans, mick chopps and you other prediction gurus (and I say that sincerely, not sarcastically, you guys do fantastic work), now that temps have dropped and its starting to snow......do you still see the predicted snow levels talked about earlier....around 50cm?? I am talking perisher.
     
  11. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Absolutely puking on High Noon cam.
    Sorry, wrong thread.
     
    #411 PMG, Aug 16, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2017
  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    should've been sarcastica... I couldn't carry these guys bags.....

    Just looking at latest Access-R and roughly adding up the numbers... yes, definitely 50cm still possible for Perisher IMO. Latest GFS looks a touch shy of that.
     
    #412 mick chopps, Aug 16, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2017
  13. Ralph_Plow

    Ralph_Plow One of Us

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    Over a month would be nice, not a night.
     
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  14. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You know all you need to know.
    About the same as me.
     
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    ACCESS R looks very good from here on with a solid clearing trend perhaps on Saturday / Sunday.

    Some pretty cold uppers on Saturday to thaw it out will be really good for the snow in the BC.
     
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  16. Deanski

    Deanski Addicted

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    Is 40-50 enough to replenish and repair the damage you reckon??
     
  17. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is going to be large. 3m for Spencers next week?
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Back off on your morning coffees bro.
     
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  19. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    3m, gotta say nowhere near.
     
  20. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its been a while since we topped 2m, reckon we may get there?
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO it will be marginal until about 4pm (for Vic) ~ snow level 1500m-ish, but the moisture will not be significant until after this so, it shouldn't be too bad. After that it's all good for mine.
     
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  22. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Very close I reckon!
     
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Axs R actually suggests warming @ 850hpa from 4-10pm... Or am I missing something in the uppers?
    At any rate, marginal wintry mix is better than rain at 3C. Shouldn't lose too much more snowpack from this point I wouldn't have thought?
     
    #423 mick chopps, Aug 16, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2017
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Concur
     
  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its proper snowing at High Noon live cam. If it stays as snow from here on Spencers Creek will be closer to 3m than 2m next week. IMO.
     
  26. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The sat pic snow the speckled snowies conveyor belt stretching 4000km to the west of the Alps.
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has it decidedly colder from 4pm IMO. Lets see what happens.
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has the uppers pretty steady for most of the day, around -24C from midway Vic down. NSW a bit warmer, but has elevation working for it. 850hpa temps will be in the 1 to 2C range.
    IMO
     
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  29. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Hard Yards

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    What are people's thoughts on the weekend? How strong is likelihood of it clearing up. Looking at my first NSW jaunt from Vicco.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps a bit of diurnal warming in the middle of the day might lift it a bit as the day goes on but that NW looks like it might counteract it enough.
     
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  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will be clearing , system will push out fast
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In general, Saturday clearing up a little. Sunday moreso. Monday deteriorating again.
     
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  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The Fetch is big with this one. The facted that we are scoring today means the Jet stream is not killing it and could deliver some surprises.
     
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  34. Ryan W Kan

    Ryan W Kan Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Deteriorating? How bad? :(
     
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  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Dude Saturday looks Blue bird with a surface of 30 cm of POW. :cry:
     
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  37. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    All the snow will be gone. The mountains may even blow away. If not they will wash away, or may flow down the hill with all the ice. ANy way you look at it we are stuffed.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still 5 days away but BoM has the gist of it.
    Deteriorating conditions... not snow cover.
     
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  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    72 hr Event finishing with a COLD clearing hook.

    Now thats what I call a southern hemi hook.
     
  40. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    One mans deteriorating is another mans improving.
     
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  41. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    half empty is truthful - half full is just PR spin
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *rationalised for the first time punter, but I agree.
     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    "deteriorating" Tuesday style ...........hmmm that man has rocks in his head
     
  44. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    *Tracked friday
     
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  45. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The worst white out blizzard conditions.....= favourite.
    *except NZ and high alpine Europe
     
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  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah NZ is terrible. What is odd is a cloud just might move into the basin and it goes as flat as a tack.
     
  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Its good when you can see no tracks in the alpine and not get blown off a cliff. What is not tracked will be epic which is 99.9 % of the mountains.

    Then maybe, just maybe we should all take Friday Off and bank in a few resort lines then hook on out to the Peaks for some epic lines Saturday / Sunday. I think I could call it a season after that.
     
    #447 7wombathead, Aug 16, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2017
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Its in

    Some hot 4 day action. Friday still looks windy.

    [​IMG]
     
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  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The follow up on Monday looks solid.

    Saturday maybe not so blue bird.

    Sunday looks Blue
     
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