The way this event is being portrayed on social media will result in a lot of initial disappointment for Victorian punters......
40+mm of rain at Perisher today is pretty ugly - hope you're all correct about cooler temps tomorrow. Sadly I also think this will be a net loss, but at least there was something there to start with!
So I did some investigating, and you were right. There was a problem with the AccuWxPro snow accum totals. Perhaps an issue with the coordinates. The Yr.no and AccuWxPro QPF totals were the same. Sorry for causing that misunderstanding of mine.
I fear we will be looking at between 100 - 130 mm before we see snow. Lower slopes will be smashed Wednesday. Hopefully we get a solid dump Thursday to repair the wash outs. Lake Perisher grows as I type. Daylight will not be pretty.
So pow, claude, jellybeans, mick chopps and you other prediction gurus (and I say that sincerely, not sarcastically, you guys do fantastic work), now that temps have dropped and its starting to snow......do you still see the predicted snow levels talked about earlier....around 50cm?? I am talking perisher.
should've been sarcastica... I couldn't carry these guys bags..... Just looking at latest Access-R and roughly adding up the numbers... yes, definitely 50cm still possible for Perisher IMO. Latest GFS looks a touch shy of that.
ACCESS R looks very good from here on with a solid clearing trend perhaps on Saturday / Sunday. Some pretty cold uppers on Saturday to thaw it out will be really good for the snow in the BC.
IMO it will be marginal until about 4pm (for Vic) ~ snow level 1500m-ish, but the moisture will not be significant until after this so, it shouldn't be too bad. After that it's all good for mine.
Axs R actually suggests warming @ 850hpa from 4-10pm... Or am I missing something in the uppers? At any rate, marginal wintry mix is better than rain at 3C. Shouldn't lose too much more snowpack from this point I wouldn't have thought?
Its proper snowing at High Noon live cam. If it stays as snow from here on Spencers Creek will be closer to 3m than 2m next week. IMO.
GFS has the uppers pretty steady for most of the day, around -24C from midway Vic down. NSW a bit warmer, but has elevation working for it. 850hpa temps will be in the 1 to 2C range. IMO
What are people's thoughts on the weekend? How strong is likelihood of it clearing up. Looking at my first NSW jaunt from Vicco.
Perhaps a bit of diurnal warming in the middle of the day might lift it a bit as the day goes on but that NW looks like it might counteract it enough.
The Fetch is big with this one. The facted that we are scoring today means the Jet stream is not killing it and could deliver some surprises.
All the snow will be gone. The mountains may even blow away. If not they will wash away, or may flow down the hill with all the ice. ANy way you look at it we are stuffed.
Yeah NZ is terrible. What is odd is a cloud just might move into the basin and it goes as flat as a tack.
Its good when you can see no tracks in the alpine and not get blown off a cliff. What is not tracked will be epic which is 99.9 % of the mountains. Then maybe, just maybe we should all take Friday Off and bank in a few resort lines then hook on out to the Peaks for some epic lines Saturday / Sunday. I think I could call it a season after that.
