Predictions 16-18th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by J_busworth, Jul 9, 2018.

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  1. J_busworth

    J_busworth Hard Yards

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    Weatherzone and Mountainwatch seem to be calling a system coming through the alps delivering snow around the 16-18th of July. Is this showing up on anyones magic models or is it still too far out to tell?
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Being discussed in the Winter BBQ thread for a week or two now. Nothing to suggest it's a real thing yet IMO.
    It's on the models, yet nothing aligned and sticking.
     
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  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS is porning itself out I heard.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    *GFS
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    [​IMG]

    Meanwhile Canucks.
     
  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  8. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I guess its down under what counts. GEM flatter and broader. GFS more wave like.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    You want flat? How's this for flat?

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It's actually an upgrade from yesterday... I wouldn't totally discount it yet.
    Yesterday's 00z run:
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    00Z EC

    [​IMG]

    Unfortunately it's that quick it's gone on the following 216 chart.
    I do wish EC would make the 12 hour charts public.
     
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  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    ECMWF Flattened sustained attack. The spatial scale above does not account very well for temporal variations in forecast.

    It looks promising on ECMWF, GFS just has more amplitude. I am locking it in.

    I honestly think that EC looks (more purple close 40 S) better than GFS.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Saturday to Thursday next week.
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    06 GFS more in line with CMC and EC

    [​IMG]
     
  15. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Looks pretty meh on EC at the moment IMO but still a fair way out, could change for the better, but to me it looks like that monster high will ridge it out of the way.....
     
  16. Kopite

    Kopite Addicted

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    Yr.no seem to like it - got 25mm falling 17th - 19th in Perisher.
     
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  17. MickM

    MickM One of Us
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    Also showing some love for Buller.

    Maybe the gurus here have access to later charts
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    18z GFS cooking up an almost exact reproduction of the system just past.
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Claude Cat

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    It's not dead - yet. IMO
     
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  20. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Hard Yards

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    Surely, something is stirring...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Flatness is relative to where your observation (obsession) point is taken from. ECMWF looks very promising.

    [​IMG]
     
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS just seems to like weather porn hits.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Still there on the 00z run.
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    MC Don't mess with that 5280 line unless you want to upgrade to a 5220.

    GFS modelers must have figured out that if you want to sell your product you have to sex it up, or over simplify it and publish more than anybody else (6hrs as opposed to 12hrs)
     
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  25. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Hard Yards

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    Substantial upgrade on GFS, ah but GFS is just a cowboy, right?
    [​IMG]
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Yes. Yes it is. Consistency from run to run is a positive sign. Wanna see what ensembles say and EC.
     
  27. Claude Cat

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    Not much there on CMC
    IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Let’s all just rush to believe the gospel of GFS okay!
     
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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    Place your percentiles wherever you like but there is a whiff of intensity in the air imo.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    [​IMG]


    *theresachance.gif*
     
  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    EC determ on board.
     
  32. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Spag loves it.

    [​IMG]
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    The trailing high will be still centred over the Indian Ocean. Room to move into position imo.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Can't argue with that.
     
  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Not gonna lie... have seen a lot better spag charts.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC 00z has it hanging in there.

    Hotham:
     
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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Upgrade
     
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  39. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Hard Yards

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    Nah, just rather be hopefull rather than fall into the abyss of doom and gloom, imo of course.
     
  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    MJO index in the juicy sector also. Vibe may build on this one.
     
  41. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Hard Yards

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    A snif or what's that a whif of intensity... there's some outthere who'd rather b sniff'n, poor depressed EC sods.
     
  42. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Hard Yards

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    Ah, it's just the cowboy shootn from the hip, forget it!
     
  43. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Hard Yards

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    What, for northern Japan?
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    GFS thickness- 850 heights and temp a little fanciful but looks purdy.
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    Ah. Maybe pencil this one in IMO . EPS and GEFS liking it also.
     
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  46. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Jeebus ..... Peaks just at the right time. Reasonable amplitude on the Control Lines, looks reasonablely cold ........ It ain't no Donza 3 Foot StormTM But I'll take it.
     
  47. Claude Cat

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    Looks like a 25-30cm sort of system IMO.
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Carbon copy of the last one, perhaps less prefrontal.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I am not convinced. It's trending in the right direction but it's peaks and troughs on all models (including GFS) are still there IMO.

    All the same, it doesn't look like much or any prefront IMO.
     
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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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