Predictions 16-18th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by J_busworth, Jul 9, 2018.

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  1. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    The duck!!!!
     
  2. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Looks like Spencer’s will be accumulating to 150cm pretty quick , next storm , 220??
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest EC snowfall plot
     
  4. LaNeige

    LaNeige One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Whoops, wrong thread
     
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  5. Brill

    Brill Hard Yards

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    After watching this site for years, the forum for this system is one of the most interesting I have followed. Can't wait to see how it unfolds.
     
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  6. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Super cold the whole period too. Should set all the resorts up very nicely to open even more terrain.
     
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  7. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    yr.no looks to be drying out a bit.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I've split out the 19th-21st into it's own separate system thread.
    The 16-18 appears to be getting weaker by the day.
     
  9. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think that’s a bit optimistic.
     
  10. Jani Makaraiinen

    Jani Makaraiinen Addicted

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    Interest in this time period waning , interest in the next increasing.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS still kinda bullish here on the 00z update suggesting 10-15cm for the majors but IMO still 5-10 cents is the realistic chance on this clipper.
     
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  12. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Act 1: system enters stage left, exits stage right. IMO
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps 5cm above 1600m now.
    Could even be a little rain below IMO
     
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  14. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    #IWantToBelieve

     
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  15. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher - Yr No

     
  16. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher - BoM

     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This morning's run. Wait until after 6pm for the 00z run.
     
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  18. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, the one on the phone gets updated earlier but wasn't too much different from the website between runs IMO.
     
  19. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Doesn’t look great IMO especially seeing those temps not getting below zero at Perisher
     
  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    So it looks like G-Frog-S was way off the mark going out on it’s own predicting a huge dump and EC has predicted this well to deliver not a lot.....
     
  21. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's quick, but it's something. I'm banking 10 cents ....... with mint.



     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yep, 10cm seems about right IMO
     
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  23. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Tues windy as
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]
     
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  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    A wee small upgrade (i.e. move a little north and east) than this could be really good.

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    IMO Lots of wind, very little in the way of precip/flakes but it's better than rain I guess....a little freshen up
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow falling as low as 600m on Friday mid-morning in parts of Vic.
    Down to 1000m in the CT's & NSW MR.
     
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  28. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    0.4mm of blowing snow...? She'll be windy AF early.
     
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  30. CR500

    CR500 Hard Yards

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    Any tips on whether Perisher or Thredbo will be more protected from the predicted strong wind direction?
     
  31. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

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    Perisher, head for the t bars
     
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  32. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

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    Yeah, but how the f do they arrive at point four of a didley squat?
     
  33. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    IDN21037
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    New South Wales

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in parts of Illawarra, South Coast, Southern Tablelands and Snowy Mountains Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 4:23 pm Monday, 16 July 2018.

    GUSTY WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY

    An approaching cold front will generate vigorous west to northwesterly winds during Tuesday. The front is expected to cross the southeast later in the evening, or early Wednesday..

    DAMAGING WINDS averaging 90 km/h, with gusts in excess of 120 km/h, are likely for alpine areas above 1900 metres from Tuesday morning.

    DAMAGING WIND GUSTS in excess of 90 km/h are possible in areas below 1900 metres Tuesday afternoon and evening.

    Conditions are expected to gradually later Tuesday night.

    Locations which may be affected include Braidwood, Goulburn, Mount Ginini, and Thredbo.

    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
    * Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
    * Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
    * Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid on 131 388, or Endeavour Energy on 131 003 or Essential Energy on 132 080, as shown on your power bill.
    * For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.


    The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Monday.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This actually means there's 50% (or less) chance of no rain, and 25% chance of receiving 0.4mm (trace), as per BoM's forecasting guidelines HERE.

     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    06Z GFS showing a marginal upgrade for Vic precip fIgures.