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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by J_busworth, Jul 9, 2018.
Looks like Spencer’s will be accumulating to 150cm pretty quick , next storm , 220??
Latest EC snowfall plot
Whoops, wrong thread
After watching this site for years, the forum for this system is one of the most interesting I have followed. Can't wait to see how it unfolds.
Super cold the whole period too. Should set all the resorts up very nicely to open even more terrain.
yr.no looks to be drying out a bit.
I've split out the 19th-21st into it's own separate system thread.
The 16-18 appears to be getting weaker by the day.
I think that’s a bit optimistic.
Interest in this time period waning , interest in the next increasing.
GFS still kinda bullish here on the 00z update suggesting 10-15cm for the majors but IMO still 5-10 cents is the realistic chance on this clipper.
Act 1: system enters stage left, exits stage right. IMO
Perhaps 5cm above 1600m now.
Could even be a little rain below IMO
Perisher - Yr No
Perisher - BoM
This morning's run. Wait until after 6pm for the 00z run.
Yeah, the one on the phone gets updated earlier but wasn't too much different from the website between runs IMO.
Doesn’t look great IMO especially seeing those temps not getting below zero at Perisher
So it looks like G-Frog-S was way off the mark going out on it’s own predicting a huge dump and EC has predicted this well to deliver not a lot.....
It's quick, but it's something. I'm banking 10 cents ....... with mint.
yep, 10cm seems about right IMO
Tues windy as
A wee small upgrade (i.e. move a little north and east) than this could be really good.
IMO Lots of wind, very little in the way of precip/flakes but it's better than rain I guess....a little freshen up
Snow falling as low as 600m on Friday mid-morning in parts of Vic.
Down to 1000m in the CT's & NSW MR.
Can anyone understand BOM's 0 - 0.4 mm rainfall Wednesday 18 forecast for Thredbo? Otherwise, the max totals are looking healthy.
0.4mm of blowing snow...? She'll be windy AF early.
Any tips on whether Perisher or Thredbo will be more protected from the predicted strong wind direction?
Perisher, head for the t bars
Yeah, but how the f do they arrive at point four of a didley squat?
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in parts of Illawarra, South Coast, Southern Tablelands and Snowy Mountains Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:23 pm Monday, 16 July 2018.
GUSTY WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY
An approaching cold front will generate vigorous west to northwesterly winds during Tuesday. The front is expected to cross the southeast later in the evening, or early Wednesday..
DAMAGING WINDS averaging 90 km/h, with gusts in excess of 120 km/h, are likely for alpine areas above 1900 metres from Tuesday morning.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS in excess of 90 km/h are possible in areas below 1900 metres Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Conditions are expected to gradually later Tuesday night.
Locations which may be affected include Braidwood, Goulburn, Mount Ginini, and Thredbo.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid on 131 388, or Endeavour Energy on 131 003 or Essential Energy on 132 080, as shown on your power bill.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Monday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
This actually means there's 50% (or less) chance of no rain, and 25% chance of receiving 0.4mm (trace), as per BoM's forecasting guidelines HERE.
06Z GFS showing a marginal upgrade for Vic precip fIgures.