16-19th SEP Coastal NSW Rain Event

Discussion in 'Eastern & Marine' started by POW_hungry, Sep 15, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models in agreement for a reasonably good coastal deluge with the brief formation of a coastal low. Good marine instability for coastal NSW, north of Newcastle IMO.
    The catalyst is the convergence of the polar upper-level cold pool and moist onshore flow off the Tasman.

    EC suggesting the low will land somewhere off the mid-north coast.

    Good directional shear and stacked PWAT should deliver falls upwards of 70-80mm in isolated areas, Monday into Tuesday.
    Snow lowering to 900m for the South Coastal Districts, early Tuesday IMO.



     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Each run of AXSR has stepped up both the amounts and penetration inland.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I noticed that ridge on AXS-R has a little more steering influence to bring it back on shore.
    Unfortunately, EC is not as hopeful though.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM's WATL bulletin this AM:
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a little trough laying along the inland ranges?
     
  6. Sean G

    Sean G Early Days

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    Yr.no pretty muscular in its snow forecast for the blue mountains and central tablelands. BOM aren’t convinced....
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, perhaps some mesoscale leeside troughing and mountain forcing.
    Picked up on EC's 850mb:
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah needs all the right ingredients, but looking very disjointed for much of a snow event.
    If it happens it'll be an isolated surprise event, I reckon.
     
  9. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    The key here for snow is the fact that most models are picking up quite a cold surface layer of air. While the upper level te,ps are certainly nothing special, these type of systems are the ones which produce the most snow to lower level locations. The following charts show the temp at 950hpa, with the height in metres in black. Going purely off these charts, the snow level will be around 700-800m for areas around Goulburn, Crookwell and western and southern parts of the Southern Highlands. The CTs will probably get a nice fall but not to the same low levels. Moisture will not be an issue. It shows some similarities to the June 4 event this year where we got a very short, wet, but very heavy snowfall here in Bowral


     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am with you.
    There’s ingredients for 10-15cm in elevated (CT and ST) areas above 1000m for sure!
     
  11. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Early Days

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    Looks like I'm setting the alarm for 4am Tuesday morning for a peek outside - and indeed looks like a similar setup to June. I was lucky enough to be up that night and see it, hope we have it occur again.
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Toot Toot.
     
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  13. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    Yeah that June one was an interesting one indeed! I was also awake because it was almost the perfect setup for here, just not quite cold enough

    This system also looks to bring some very decent rain to areas around Braidwood which have been very very dry this winter
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just a Spring Zephyr.
     
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  15. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    A much needed one!! I just noticed that there's another widespread rain event lined up for next weekend as well.
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    4pm Tues lower Hunter Valley looking stodgy . Some good Skew Ts inland as far as Mudgee earlier with the odd brief warm layer but enough instability below to disperse with any serious attempts at a capping obstruction - backed up by low figures on the CAP temps imo.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The plot thickens on GFS this arvie as does the atmospheric thickness...
    GFS upgrading on better temps of CTs,STs and BM's Tuesday AM.
    Enough to close the GWH, IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXSR jumping in as well.
    Looking quite violent little low to form off the mid north coast
     
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  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heaviest falls look around Newcastle North and ranges ... decent drink
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid 18z - 24 hours of power . Toot toot.
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    :nerd:
     
  23. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tightening southern flank of the broad-based low on EC this arvo.
    Coastal erosion looking imminent for Newy to the Dulla.
    [​IMG]
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And 3-5 metre surf possibility.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The tricky thing here is there's a couple of swell trains in the mix by Wednesday.
     
  27. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    Love a good September Sheep Graziers Warning:

    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    for the Illawarra, South Coast, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South
    West Slopes, Riverina, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory
    forecast districts.

    Issued at 4:12 pm EST on Sunday 15 September 2019.
    Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and southwesterly
    winds are expected to develop during Monday with the passage of a cold front.
    Areas likely to be affected include the Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes,
    Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts and parts
    of the Illawarra, South Coast, Central Tablelands and Riverina forecast
    districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these
    conditions.


    GFS update still looking nice for rain totals 20-50mm for all areas east and on the divide between Coffs and the Vic border. The way the models are looking now, I think there could be some pretty surprising snowfalls for places such as Goulburn and Braidwood


    GFS forecast sounding for Braidwood:
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not sure the temps are there for Braidwood (700m) IMO.
     
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  29. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
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    BOM thinking snow 1200 M CTs on Tuesday.
    Monday max 22, Tuesday max 6
    Precipitation range Mon - Tues, 23-50mm
     
  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Weird, GFS goes for zilch snow on Monday and Tuesday for the CT's and northern ST's. Wildly different to that EC chart shown.
     
  32. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    I think the forecast of 27 today will be a stretch. It's only 22 currently and the air is already very well mixed with 19% humidity. It's also quite cloudy and the southerly is moving up the coast quicker than I would have expected. We'll see what happens, my guess is for around 25°C.
     
  33. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is the Pasha Bulker docking in Newy this week?
     
  34. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    :emoji_musical_score:makin my way up town :emoji_musical_score:
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I thought it would be a good washing day too !
    Yeah real inky with some traces of mammatus clouds over Wollongong
     
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  36. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Just 5.2 in Bombala while it is 15.1 at Cooma. Change has just hit Cooma as it is down from 17.4 at 7.57 am.
    Gabo Island and Green Cape are at 10.6 and 10.8 respectively.
    Certainly some colder air behind this front.
     
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  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cool change just banged through Wollongong.
     
  38. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Yeh, I just came here to post that. Should be in Sydney's southern suburbs shortly and through the rest of the metro in the next 60 - 90 minutes.
    The colder air seems to be a little slower to be infiltrating.
    Bombala has been below 6 degrees since 9 am.
    Far south coast temps in the low teens. Further north from about Merimbula are mid teens.
    Currently 28.2 deg's here under filtered sunlight through the cirrus. All windows and doors open warming the house up.
    Looking forward to the colder winds this evening.
    Richmond going for just 14 tomorrow, after having reached 30.4 deg's earlier.
     
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  39. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    31.1c in Penrith currently. Going for 15c and 20-40mm of rain tomorrow. Brutal.
     
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  40. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    The calm before the cold and wet storm.
    Looking out the window, one wouldn't know how much the weather is going to change in the next 6-18 hours.
    31 deg's in Penrith now, and possible snow forecast just 40 k's up the road tomorrow!!
    I love these extreme, widely variable changes we get in Spring.
     
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  41. sbm_

    sbm_ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Getting a bit blowy here in inner west Sydney. A loud bang just brought a few people peering out of their office doors...speculation it just came off of our building's roof.
     
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  42. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Not a breath of wind in Castle Hill. I suspect that will change very shortly.
     
  43. sbm_

    sbm_ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Beautiful visual of the cold front busting through, on the Sydney/Terry Hills doppler wind radar right now.
     
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  44. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah was dead calm just before it came through lower NBs
    Not that strong though
     
  45. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    It's actually very gusty here. It hit with a boom.
    Temp already down to 21.8.
     
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dark as now.
    Feel the rain coming.
    Wild and windy.
     
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  47. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Better now, much moar gusty
     
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  48. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit First Runs

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    As we headed south through Rooty Hill at 2:35pm the car thermometer read 31c by the time we got to Elizabeth Dr at 2:50pm it was down to 21c with lots of dust in the air.
     
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  49. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Welcome Rainbow!!
     
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  50. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    The southerly smelt very salty as well when it hit here. The precipitation is coming tonight and there's still vast differences between GFS and EC... GFS has no Central Tableland snow but has accumulated snow up to 34cm near Braidwood and falls in excess of 20cm much of that area east of the ACT. EC has lighter falls, with 8cm for Braidwood but also spreads up to the southern CT with 14cm near Porters Retreat. GFS seems a little on drugs but I also think EC is overcooking how far north it will go. Not too sure what to make of it for the CT, but for around Braidwood I reckon EC is closest to the money.
     
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