Predictions 16-21st June System

POW Hungry

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Very tricky window but ‘showing teeth’ for some good falls in this period thanks to wandering cold pools and very supportive upper level atmos.
There’s a number of scenarios on the table, looking good for anywhere f30cm at the moment.
EC
D3E43F7D-F8FD-4A9F-ADB9-EAA7A23B33AD.png

GFS

FBB1D7F8-D7D7-412F-B0DA-9784FE433938.png
 

Jasper Schwarz

Young but not afraid
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Very tricky window but ‘showing teeth’ for some good falls in this period thanks to wandering cold pools and very supportive upper level atmos.
There’s a number of scenarios on the table, looking good for anywhere f30cm at the moment.
EC
D3E43F7D-F8FD-4A9F-ADB9-EAA7A23B33AD.png

GFS

FBB1D7F8-D7D7-412F-B0DA-9784FE433938.png
1623284469739.png


Cut off earlier in the period, great for NSW, Throwing this sort of thing up on 18z with moisture off the coast (also you guessed it, good for NSW) followed by a SW system (with another cut off)
Essentially has cold and snow for like 7 days+

IDK much about this sort of stuff, but this seems non-sensical to me. Im just watching and seeing whats happening atm
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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EC is not picking up much for June 19th so far .There is enough time for a trend to form.

WZ is seeing 5-10 cms on 17/6/21 at Hotham .
 
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Jasper Schwarz

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Front of this this system looks pretty warm IMO and a bit wet. Back end of the system looks good on both GFS and EC, with plenty of cold.
GFS seems pretty dry atm IMO.

Will wait for tonight’s update me thinks. Still jumping around a lot
 
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Winterwolf

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Looks like a lot of clear Thursday for NSW ahead of not a great recovery on Friday on the latest GFS. Not much of anything for Vic. Long way to go still.
 
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Young Angus

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EC sees nothing worth waxing the planks over at present for the next 10 days at Hotham.
That’s a bit rubbish, at least there’s some kind of good start though and what will hopefully make for a good base going forward.

I observe I need to scrape the wax from my skis but might wait a while….hopefully things will be sweet by August!
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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This lacklustre, fickle period has the Aus alps trending for a 10-20cm outcome at the moment.
The weak wandering cold pool kicks it off Wednesday night, with snow above 1600m IMO. The attractive component of this system is the reasonably light winds associated with it.

We then see a follow-up Southerly flow late on Thursday night, where winds increase and we potentially see the bulk of the snowfall into Friday AM.
Net gain IMO.
Screen Shot 2021-06-12 at 5.35.36 pm.png
 

POW Hungry

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Yr.no is calling temperatures around freezing for Hotham… so upside if lacking the natural stuff cooler nights for some snow making ??

Will depend on Dew Points but at this stage temps will be marginal for snowmaking.

As a very general long range outlook when you see cloud, fog or precipitation in the forecast coupled with NEAR freezing (incl -1°C) temps you won’t see much in the way of snowmaking.
 

cookieman

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Will depend on Dew Points but at this stage temps will be marginal for snowmaking.

As a very general long range outlook when you seen cloud, fog or precipitation in the forecast coupled with NEAR freezing (incl -1°C) temps you won’t see much in the way of snowmaking.
Correct, clear nights generally are best for snowmaking
 

Jasper Schwarz

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GFS looks strange this morning
Not a lot of sense and some serious amounts of snow including another East coast event from a cut off later in the forecasting period (out of the date range for this forum)

Still Something brewing IMO. juts got to wait and see until it sorts itself out.
AAO still +ve

What does Spag say @Donzah?
 

snowgum

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Looks a bit garbage for the rest of June tbh.

You mean typical Vic June snow conditions?

On topic:
I note, Weatherzone is predicting up to 10-25cm to about 1300m next Wed.-Friday. WZ seems more optimistic than most on this forum. Their general daily snow fcst seems to be based mostly on NSW - which is often irrelevant for Victoria’s small/low mtns and their fickle propensity to rain at ~ 0C.

 

Donza

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GFS looks strange this morning
Not a lot of sense and some serious amounts of snow including another East coast event from a cut off later in the forecasting period (out of the date range for this forum)

Still Something brewing IMO. juts got to wait and see until it sorts itself out.
AAO still +ve

What does Spag say @Donzah?
Spag? Flat and zonal with a slight chance of a cutoff.

But EC DT and Ensembles look pretty tidy.
Not classic.
But snow.
 

snowgum

A Local
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1623546671434.png
Mount Buller on EC

Error bars are good! Buller error bars would reach 0 (neg?) and presumably extend handsomely on bigger events? The upper limits (T=35cm) for Wed-Friday would be a v good outcome for bare Buller!
 

POW Hungry

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The second front is diminishing on the models. Although it hasn’t showed much promise anyway, the weakening of the front means less coupled instability and moisture on Friday morning.

This means we turn our attention to Friday evening where the low is expected to bring us ‘some chance’ through the backdoor (albeit with more risk).

Downgrade to 5-10cm by Saturday AM IMO.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
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The second front is diminishing on the models. Although it hasn’t showed much promise anyway, the weakening of the front means less coupled instability and moisture on Friday morning.

This means we turn our attention to Friday evening where the low is expected to bring us ‘some chance’ through the backdoor (albeit with more risk).

Downgrade to 5-10cm by Saturday AM IMO.
Ms Bunn has been saying 5 cms of snow , max. all along.
 

7wombathead

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IDY20202.T-500hPa.051.png


Its starts off Really Good.


I kind of like this, but might be only good for base building above 1600 m. But Friday morning could be Fun for a few freshies.

Definitely looks better on the Bom Synoptic at <72 hrs
 
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Snowmaker7

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The defunct AXS-R is replaced by AXS-C, so as of JAN/FEB it's not longer published.

Here's the AXS-C precip to 10pm tomorrow night. You can probably add in 2-4mm of pre frontal in there, but otherwise snow accumulation above 1600m:
1623722147565.png
15-25cm would sure be a nice top up. Will be some nice accumulation rates between 4pm and 10pm looking at the frames before on AXS-C, ie 3-4cm/hr
 
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