I'm very much in the one model run at a time mode.Yeah, let’s see if it gets there.
Not completely sold on it myself.
The occluded front is the Sherry in the pudding for Friday when it draws in from the South behind Tas.
Access R at < 72 hrs is not up on the BOM site, they call it Access G3.AXS-C is on weatherzone layers.
I presume R is still kicking on the BOM site?
Another easterly, what IS happening to this weather??EC Ensembles putting 10-15cm on the Aus Alps by Thursday AM.
The clincher is in the Friday/Saturday Period that's getting a mjor overhaul on EC tonight.
With an additional 20-30cm on the table (above 1600m).
I've got a feeling Jane hasn't really looked at it....For much of today/tonight in Victoria, according to AXS-C:
~1440m ASL is ~3°C puts FL around 1700m
700mb (3000m/mid-level atmosphere) -5°C
500mb (upper levels at 5540m) -23°C
That generally indicates snow will easily fall below 1600/1700m with shower activity.
Snow >1800m for today/tonight in Vic resorts is overly pessimistic IMO.