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Predictions 16th- 17th Sept

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Kletterer, Sep 14, 2019 at 7:51 AM.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has a cooler back end with some recovery on the 12 Z run with a reasonable snowline circa 3pm 16th. GFS looking closer to 6 pm. Some loss and some gain . Models do however have a tentative approach to this event with some odd advection scenarios been thrown around.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This has become very interesting on the 00z run, and largely on-trend with what has resulted throughout this season.
    I am seeing a positive up-tick in temp Monday early afternoon (MR/NSW Resorts) where we'll see a switch for snow to the resorts.
    Buller may see snow as early as mid-morning Monday IMO.

    10-15mm of rain followed by 5-10cm snowfall IMO.

    AXS-C Monday 850mb 4am:
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    For Perisher, EC:

    Pretty much is on the same page as the above.

    Buller in particular, but lower parts of Hotham and Falls as well are largely to miss out on the snowfall.

    Top of Hotham looks to be okay:
     
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Temps are looking cooler on major models.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 2019 standard issue; temp pull back at t-minus 24...
     
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  6. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM now saying 35-75mm precipitation for perisher, tending to snow in the afternoon. Level 1000m in the afternoon and evening. Minimum temp predicted +4C. They have been on this for days, but progressively upping the precipitation and dropping the level.

    When do we think the level will drop? Will much moisture come as snow up high? I have an ominous feeling about this. Hard to imagine snow to 1000m with a minimum temp of 4c at 1700m? The BOM obviously know something I don’t;)
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z indicating around midday tomorrow for Vic resorts, mid/late arvo for the MR resorts.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-C goes even a little bit earlier, indicating 20-30mm prefrontal, with 15-30cm in the boot.
    It gets really interesting East of The Divide IMO.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday 10am AXS-C 850mb temps (note the SW to S frontal switch):
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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