Predictions 17-18th July Rogue Shortwave Signal

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 9, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upper level development starting to show on Ensembles for the 17th on both GEFS & EC.
    It looks to show dominance over the continental ridge pattern.
    Potentially good SW flow.
    The potential for 10-20cm here for the major resorts IMO.

    EC Control

    GEFS

    [​IMG]
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    NB. This comes not without ridging risk though - the trend is that it beats the ridge ATM.
     
  3. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    This one I will be watching closely as 10cm on top of a base makes for great skiing as they should get enough open by Monday.
    I guess lets get this week done and dusted first.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fruitful upgrade on the deterministics this arvo.
    A longer duration and some 'softening' of that ridge.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles
    #growing
     
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  6. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    YR has it going through till the 19th at this point.

     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Enough there to warrant 10-20cm top up IMO.
     
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  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC deterministic care of Jane's metoegram. Hotham mid station. Quite a pulse there on the 17th.
     
  9. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    I love it when the temperature doesn't surface for more than a week with snow in between.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS showing interest.
    Short and sweet.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    This seems to have disappeared for the moment.
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC slowed it up 12-15 hours on 00z run.


    Still there on GFS & The Canuck.
     
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  13. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    I was looking at gfs 6z update.
    Is this to be trusted?
    Ps. I know very little about these things.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS still a day earlier. Nonetheless, nothing is to be trusted a week out with whats at our doorstep over the next 3 days.
    06z
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Yeah cmc 00z was thinking its decent coldfront.

    gem-aus-t500-3397200.png gem-aus-t700-3375600.png
     
  16. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    YR has backed off on this for intensity this morning, also has it as Thurs night/Friday
     
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  17. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Thurs night / Fri morning look good tonight on yr. No
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the continual slowing up (delay in arrival) on EC is a bit of a worry for this system IMO.
     
  19. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    YR has now broken this into 2 pulses
     
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  20. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    #4day. Just keeping the vibe alive for mid week. Well for me anyway. Wednesday and Thursday looking good for me to hit up Perisher.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow above 1500m by Wednesday PM, lowering to 1300m by the evening IMO.
    5-10cm across the major resorts here.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bullish AXS-R for Wednesday PM:


    WRF (which is favoured by OCF at the moment):
     
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very bullish.
     
  24. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom has upped its higher end for Hotham
     
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  25. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    Yeah Thredbo top station now has a forecast max of minus 3 for Wednesday. Wind is going slightly ruin the chairlift party. Go the T's.
     
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  26. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This remains steady this morning, might see it start at 1600m, but should lower down to 1300m by the eve.
    No possibility of falls over 10cm IMO, with MSL pressures remaining above 1016hPa.
     
  28. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

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    GFS pretty well agrees with your max threshold of 10cm, although Mt Baw Baw will prob do a little better IMO. Starts after sunset Wednesday night, suggesting around 10pm to be the peak (see chart below) and by sunrise Thursday it will be too dry for any major precip as that high barges in pretty quickly after the front. IMO

     
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  29. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
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    ACC G
    Has a precipitation signal for the alps commencimg from about 10am.. light.
    The precip' signal strengthens into the afternoon and evening until about 2am thursday morning.
    The thickness values a little concerning at the surface. Between 548 wednesday morning and dropping no lower than 540 into the evening.
    WEDNESDAY..17th..More likely for snow at higher elevations in the evening perhaps?
    Risks of the dreaded R during the day..
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...&area=NSW&model=CSCG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

     
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  30. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM North east VIC
    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/northeast.shtml
    quote
    'Wednesday 17 July
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Snow falling above 1600 metres, lowering to 1200 metres by the evening. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day then turning westerly in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 5 and 11.'
    .........
    So snow with no temps' below zero?

    .....
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You don’t need sub zero temps for it to snow.
    It helps but the range quoted by BoM is for a whole 24 hour period and is for the whole NE region. Obviously not all locations are at the same height etc.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good to see BoM reads and uses this forum as a reference.;)
    I notice NSW BoM still stands rogue at 8-25mm though.

    Vic Alpine District Forecast:
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF (tomorrow):


    WRF (this arvo) favouring a NSW Main Range swing - as supported by BoM (NSW).
     
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  34. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    Interesting how OCF favours Vic over NSW and WRF vice versa.
     
  35. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    an extra 10 cents would be nice for my coming weekend in PB
     
  36. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Looks like another 10cm to me
    Incoming around the friendly high