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Predictions 18/19th September Touch-Up

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We've got ourselves moderate frontal system moving through the South East on Tuesday (tomorrow) night, through Wednesday. Problem is she's pretty dry.

    Snow falling to ~800m (& possibly a touch lower) if we get some moisture in the tail-end, however the majority will be settle to around 1200m IMO.

    3-5cm for the majors IMO
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    at least it will be cold! :) better than it melting :)
     
    rime noreason, Ret-ro and MarkV like this.
  3. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This.

    It’s always nice when you get a week in September that won’t have much snow loss
     
    Ret-ro and Tanuki like this.
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looks a lot better on latest couple of runs.

    Idea set up for Main Range Alpine peaks
    1. Bulk of precipitation at 5460 meaning it wont be so wind scoured up the top and might stick
    2. Top up by some colder snow temps Wednesday Night
    3. Nice clearing High for Thursday / Friday.
    Heading up Wednesday Arvo, touch wood.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah Nah Mt Hotham



    Disclaimer: I have a vested interest in this system :)
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest axs-r continues the upward precip trend
     
  7. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    #2018 #YearOfUpgrades IMO
     
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  8. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  9. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM - Mt Hotham

     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Haven't seen an embedded trough in the BoM 4 dayer for a good month now... Gives hope for the 10 cents part of the scale.
     
  11. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    it's dualing forecast with BOM on and the Vikings off.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM dropping snow down to 800m (southern central Vic) as suggested in my initial system post.
    I still think around 5cm for Majors IMO.
    OCF suggesting 5-7cm Tues/Wed
    Tues 10am to Wed 10am:
    [​IMG]
    Wed 10am to Thurs 10am:
    [​IMG]
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah BoM's been a bit stop/start in recent weeks. I am backing YrNo has the edge here ATM.
     
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  14. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    that's no fun. what's tipped yr.no into downgrade mode?
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Comparing EC's run-to-run (12z Vs 00z) it simply looks drier.

    Buller and Southern resorts are probably more likely to 'benefit' from the steady Westerly flow on Wednesday, in terms of precip/duration.
    That is of course until it rains at -2C.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fantastic looking DGZ values near the mid-levels for tomorrow arvo (4pm Buller) ahead for the frontal change. It's a shame there's no low-level support for shower activity.
    This said, I wouldn't be surprised to see some rogue big-flake snow showers tomorrow PM in Victorian resorts.


    Moving onto tomorrow evening, I can't see any rain for the resorts (above 1600m) ahead of the cold air tomorrow night.
     
  17. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    well that sure died a forgotten death. at least it will be coldish and quite windy again. should be plenty to blow around to make it talc heaven.
     
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  18. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look at the radar... it's not over by a long shot.
     
    rocketboy likes this.
  19. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us

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    Next high is heading south = I predict there wont be much more snow + it looks droughty to me .