Predictions 18-20 Jun Breakthrough

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 12, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A big shift in the models over-night with EC & GFS 12Z & 18Z going for a cold shot Sunday/Monday. We saw this ridged out yesterday but it looks like it was a transition to the below.

    GFS over-confident on precip IMO, but I think this scenario is far more realistic than the coastal trough progged late last week.
    I think it has ~10cm in it IMO.

    Looks cold. Snow down to 900m on Sunday evening IMO.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Take the below totals with a pinch of salt, but I do like the early hook this thing has.
    [​IMG]
    BoM's into it. Jane's on board.
     
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  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    But it kind of goes cut off. Maybe it will evolve. NZ copping the sustained SW polar air at the moment.


    [​IMG]
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Potentially a lot on the backside if it goes down that road, but I think that's just GFS being...welll... GFS. EC put's it more in the Tasman Low category; developing and moving offshore quicker.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Scaled back as clipper on GFS's 00Z run.
    [​IMG]
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC still looking good, albeit short and sharp.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS and CMC not so keen on this one at this stage.
     
  7. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah good posts @POW_hungry .
    Been watching this , as have we all.
    Thx for taking the time & putting it all together.
    Not an insignificant commitment here.

    Big picture of the winter ( i.e #The Vibe) I read into it simply as change we need to see.
    Change to the ST Ridge & blocking highs.
    And improvement from last weeks menu of ECL's.
     
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  8. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watching, but for Barrington Tops region. Watching temps, precip and wind speeds @1500m. If I'm reading this right it might not be a place to be hanging around.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, does look that way when viewing from EC. 40 kts and 5cm as it stands would make it twice in a fortnight. Great disparity between models though.

    GFS 18Z has disowned it since this morning's run.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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  11. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems to have disappeared completely this morning in the BOM charts and yr/no? Just once I would like an upgrade!!
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 12Z

    Still there on the BOM forecast. EC and CMC turn at giving it the cold-shoulder this morning.
    AXS hasn't really been into it at all but I expect that to change in the coming days.
     
    #12 POW_hungry, Jun 13, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2017
  13. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS still sitting on the ECL developing in the trough to the North .
    As is ECDet
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  14. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS in limbo somewhere between.
    [​IMG]
     
  15. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dreamy result if it happens.
    *GFS
    [​IMG]
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Struggling on GFS 18Z:crap:
    [​IMG]
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECL helps break down the ridge
     
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  19. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    12z EC was not as sharp but it was showing neg 20c uppers @500mb.
    over the alps.
    700mb temps are still good on the plot considering neg 4c will produce snow

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    Not as dramatic sure,but still looking a wintry mix on 12z.@17th
     
    #19 jwx, Jun 13, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2017
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS says no dice with an all out, ridge out on the 00Z run. Slip slidin' away.
     
  21. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag plots showed most likley position of low being further north and east. I'm not sure that the operational run is supported though?

    Tues 00z spag
    [​IMG]

    Yesterday's corresponding run
    [​IMG]
     
  23. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    deja vu
    again
     
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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a few days out yet and Ensemble members still have a wide spread with Low and High pressure centres.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like that's all she wrote for this one I am afraid. EC00Z pretty much puts a line through it for me.
    [​IMG]
     
    #26 POW_hungry, Jun 13, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2017
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  27. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yep, no cigar here.
    The Highs still have firm control.
    I never was optimistic for this system.
    Lets hope the next (24th June plus) can break through
     
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  28. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    The overnight temps are pretty high as well.
     
  29. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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  30. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS takes the biccies !
    for now.....
     
  31. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS tends to be a slow sheep....
     
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  32. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    All I can see until July 2017 at least , is a series of strong high pressure systems that will make that big dump of snow in late May 2017 seem like a dream that cannot be relived.These sunny days and frosty nights do make for good trekking weather whereas in Summer slogging it up Mt. FT and Mt. Bogong is unpleasantly hot and sweaty work.
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Certainly looking pretty dire for at least the next 2 weeks IMO
     
  35. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    as long as we don't get any r**n I'm not too fussed.
     
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  36. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mountainwatch website still says 20cm's for Buller on Sunday... pffttt
    GFS has a huge high blocking anything all weekend.
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I saw Grasshopper put advice to ignore it.
     
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  38. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I remain cautious of (relatively) low pressure off the coast, but I'm looking at a different area at Barrington Tops.
    I would not be surprised to see models come back to the idea of a small low or at least a coastal trough. No snow, but still wet and cold. The forecast hasn't changed much as far as I'm concerned.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Onshore flow for the Mid/North Coast will almost certainly see to that IMO.
     
    #39 POW_hungry, Jun 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
  40. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, binned my plans for the weekend.
     
  41. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the trough and ECL has been a consistent out of all of this flipping in the various models this week.
    Depends how it behaves and how the "blocking " high behaves as a result .
    It's the low and cold air potentially punching thru from the South that has been the question .
    Still is ...
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looky here.
    Primed for an ECL to have some fun with the East Coast.
    [​IMG]
     
    #42 nfip, Jun 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
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  43. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Jellybeans1000
    Also note general cool sst anomalies in the bight.
    Not complete but maybe enough to the South of WA also.
    Might be worth 10 cents !
     
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  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be mean something in July. A very cold system perhaps? I reckon cold and dry this winter, unless MJO intervenes.
     
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  45. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not so encouraging.
    [​IMG]

    More so here...
    [​IMG]
     
  46. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will the front push into the trough or will the H win the battle.
    Familiar question.
    4 day rule below says....
    [​IMG]
     
    #46 nfip, Jun 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2017
  47. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    doesn't quite look to get there.
    [​IMG]

    But there is some hope a day earlier !

    [​IMG]
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I always bet on the ridging. Most of the time you come out in front and if you lose you win, so to speak.
     
  49. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    confuscious say.....
    Snow is like sex.
    You never know how much you will get or how long it will last .
    ( well it used to be funny should move to JOTD :rolleyes: )
     
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  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dont trust this one. Not for anything more than a dusting.
     
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