Predictions 18-21th June Silver Lining

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 9, 2019.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some twat once said "in times of 'darkness' there is light". Dunno who, but kinda sounds good to me with all these posts of negativity about June-doom etc.

    18-21st date range showing some 'light' of a stalling shortwave on the ensembles. Can't really comment on it's trend as I haven't seen much of it deterministically TBH.
    EC going for solid ridge in the bight with a haul of cold air from the South through the SE. Cut off looking a strong possibility as it hits the Tasman (again).
    Ridging looking favourable on GFS so the The Frog & The Grasshopper are at odds already. I am keen.




    IMO this range holds potential for a moderate system to eventuate through the SE. With little to no agreement until we round-out this mess on the 13th IMO. Keep calm about June and carry on.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here we have Exhibit A between 9/10 o'clock.
    + I don't mind that reinforcing pulse @ ~8/9 o'clock. If it grows we could see things sustained.
    [​IMG]
     
  3. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Geez according to YrNo the 14th onward is cold (good snowmaking) leading into the potential snow event
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Remaining steady on EC ensembles.


    GFS Deterministic model picking up on a weak signal.
     
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  5. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Things can only improve. We have too much R**n and warm temperatures at present in the Lower XC locations here in VIC. A major 20 cm snowfall is required to in order to resume regular broadcasting and Nordic skiing.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Something there on GFS Determ this arvo. Far from settled at 198 hrs out, but it's there.
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC deterministic checking in for this event. Albeit with a Tas moisture block.
     
  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going deep with this one POW... Effing miles out.
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s fair play, given it’s been signaled on all the models.

    CMC comes in with a dry cold node.


    ACCESS-G in the same boat.


    And GFS and EC are both in Tasmanian rain shadow, a day apart from each other.

    Time is on our side, but it doesn’t look like big dump potential as of reviewing all the modelling.
    Still, any snow is good snow. And we could sure use some now.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's all I got!
     
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  11. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I had a look at the long range models yesterday. This system is a clipper at best, no substantive snow for at least 3 weeks based on what I saw.
     
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  12. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/lake-mountain
    Jane Bunn seems to think that there will be a big dump of skiable snow on Wed. June 19th. I will take anything but she is estimating 18 cms at Lake Mtn. , which is superb . Wed. next week is long way off but it means good things are coming :).
     
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  13. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Best to just stay out of the weather threads until Astro stops picking winners.
     
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  14. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is just an automated report so take with a grain of salt, put more weight in what Jane writes about here:
    www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast
    :thumbs:
     
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  15. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms. Bunn Says "The next weather system may arrive on Tuesday or Wednesday next week. This has the potential for cold air, and may be our next good snowfall."
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Worth watching from a parameter composite perspective imo. Not without Ridge fear though.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking pretty cooked and ridged this arvo, on GFS.
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC still seems to show something.
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I decided not to look. Axis taking an early bow ?
     
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  20. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    looking more and more like a hopecast . Move along folks . Nothing to see here
     
  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It doesn’t look great. We will see if EC verifies.
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As long as the Earth continues rotating we will rely on its Inertia. The Rossby train has no timetable. She will return .
     
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  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS modelling Tasman Low for MOnday.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This one is a little bit beyond AXS(G) IMO. If it's on AXSR (72 hours), I am all ears and frothing at the mouth.
    I'd be leaving it to the Long Rangers for now.
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing? Nothing at all?
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll tag you back in if/when the 'vibe' changes...
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z, staying with it.
    [​IMG]
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks ripe for a ridge-out.

    IMO
     
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  29. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    fingers crossed . You never know . Still some time out . any spaagers and samers out there with the latest on this (the crowd regathers after dissappating for a moment )
     
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  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s certainly interesting.

    GFS has gone flat.
    CMC is all over the shop, but hopeful.
    And EC is looking even better tonight with an upgrade.

    As said above, probably going to be more clear after tomorrow’s rain.
     
  31. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    You mentioned the R**N word during the ski season !
     
  32. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    I like the look of next week as its not peaking over WA. (Sorry WA). Yes tomorrow's rain will do more damage to not much snow. But the system next week if it comes with some good cold Norwester I predict game back on.
     
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  33. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Maybe we keep Astro skiing and away from the forecast..
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn is hopeful that Wed. and Thurs. ,next week will bring enough fresh snow to ski ….. I am taking medication to control my anticipation....Tomorrow marks a week since I last skied! :-0 .
     
  36. Cubed

    Cubed Hard Yards

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    Looks good for a dusting in Vic IMO.

    Uppers look good. I wouldn't expect any prefrontal above 1400m
     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks nonsensical to me.

    Divergence is HUGE between the progs.

    Wake me on sunday
     
  38. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    The automated forecasting on Ms. Bunn's web page shows only BB and LM will get any skiable snow later next week. Hot Ham and cheese on toast and Falls Creek are set get zero snow at 1450 M.This modelling will change daily but it gives us XC day trippers from Melbourne some reason to be hopeful for Mt.St. G. and Lake Mtn. which at present are both cactus for Nordic skiing .
    TBH I am looking at the next XC ski trip on possibly Friday June 28th. I think the system being speculated over for June 21st will not give us enough snow to form a base for grooming ski trails and runs. I am not being negative , just realistic.
     
    #38 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Jun 12, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still hanging in on EC. It's weak.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The tipping point teeters on the development of the attempted ECL developing North Coast NSW on Monday.
    Still a chance at being a moderate pass.
    But for now, it's a 5-10cm at best.
     
  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its swinging in the correct direction IMO
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats a very brisk drop in pressure-
     
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS looks like 5-15cm too, I think we are solid on the cold node itself. If the ECL passes the coast further south or feeds moisture in, we may be looking at a different scenario.
     
  44. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Would the unseasonably warm sea water off NSW coast assist in the development of the ECL?
     
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, it certainly would.
     
  46. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The ECL is super interesting because right now on EC the event over the alps looks cold at resort level but dry (2-5cm for me). ECL could spice it up, but like @Donzah said gotta wait until probably Monday to get a better sense.
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Low doesn’t stand a chance at influencing Alps weather as the frontal feature swats it to NZ with that shunting ridge in the Bight.
    It may have had a chance if it was a cut-off/stall system...
     
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z is banging on some doors.
    Basically saying what the spag was this morning.
    Squeezed cutoff with potential
     
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  49. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Progression looks more logical on EC now.
    Strong trough which will develop into a surface low off Coffs H
    This should shape the High enough to cradle a cutoff low.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I quite like it.
    The Tuesday front looks pretty locked in as 5-10cm.
    The Thursday-Sat cut-off low is the potential interesting one.

    GFS shows a much stronger high though. The thing that will determine its fate.