Predictions 18-21th June Silver Lining

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 9, 2019.

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  1. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Geez, maybe this forum should be marked “weather gurus only” given I’m just a pleb wanting to learn a bit about trends and predictions, I thought it a reasonable question as I understood, rightly or wrongly, that the charts posted like below indicated a potential pool of moisture and cold air to the north that would result what I was asking about..
     
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  2. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah, weather gurus play nice.
    Re your post, I'm no guru but that chart has little moisture over the alps imo.

    Probably cold enough for snowmaking though.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is probably a chance for up to 5cm worth of showers, maybe a tad more over Thurs-Sat morning.
    Like I said before, this is localised (so may not be in your particular resort of choice).

    There isn’t really much moisture there, this is primarily a dry cold pool (which is good for snowmaking).
     
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  4. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Guru is a Sanskrit word meaning "the dispeller of darkness".
    This system will not deliver us from XC grass skiing the BC just yet.
     
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  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry I was looking at the NSW Vic border.
     
  6. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Looks nice on this arvos AccessRrrr
     
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  7. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hi RTB,
    A reasonable set of Qs from what I can see. ' Us' newbies and 'numpties' (amateurs) need to ask questions and receive a thorough explain if we're to learn how to forecast snow/read charts.

    Sometimes the text is full of acronyms, we really do need some explanations.

    And sometimes the funky new charts posted here aren't well labelled by the source agency - so without asking I'd have no idea - it would be just pretty colours!


    A general thanks though to Richard, Ian & all the pro/semi-pro forecasters on ski.com - you guys/gals make weather & snow forecasting accessible to the general population - not only ski.com followers.

    ...these forecasts make winter afternoons (post update) very interesting - lets hope they show 'white' & interesting very soon!!
    (SG) ❄️⛷
     
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  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upgrade. All that moisture is cold enough
     

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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You're not wrong!
     
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  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snap
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I expect EC to fall into line here on the 00z run.
    Couldn't possibly get any more divergent at 72 hours...
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am a little skeptical at AcessR's amount of moisture with pressure greater than 1018hPa...
     
  13. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Am I’m sorry for being a bit precious @Donzah. I for one see these weather forums a very informative and my absolute favourites. It’s my first check out each day, and part of the uniqueness offered up by ski.com.au, and the knowledgeable posters.
     
  14. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Kinda looks like it's influencing it on AXS-R now. @Kletterer got any of those vapour transport charts?
     
  15. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good news to see an upgrade to the moisture situation just a few days out. Perhaps this week will deliver yet.
     
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just as a footnote.
    Cold and wet for Wollongong.
    Temps like that is snow up on the BMs
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS prog is at that elevation most of it has already been transported South as it crosses the Bight.
     
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  18. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    All I'm seeing is good snow-making potential.
     
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  19. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That has the low in quite a different position. Got the same chart for Wednesday / Thursday? I can only find them for northern hemi.
     
  20. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That's what the current EC scenario looks like. See what happens tomorrow - AXS-R is a different story. I'm hopeful for 5cm or so haha.
     
  21. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    Why isn’t the BOM 7 day outlook updating for the mountains?!
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm not seeing much more than 5cm for the majors out of this.
    Plenty cold though.

    IMO
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, it’s been like that for a while if you look beyond the weird tropical moisture sources.
     
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  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-R has a very interesting development for this period
    Little cut off low west of Victoria
     
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  25. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might get a couple of cms out of it

     
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  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tuesday looks like 5-10cm for Buller and Baw Baw, and that depends on how long the afternoon westerly lasts, and how soon/strong the SWly kicks in. Falls and Hotham will be ~5cm, same for Buller if conditions aren’t very favourable mesoscale wise. 2-5cm for the NSW resorts.



    No more than 5cm for Thursday-Saturday, isolated snow showers throughout.
    Cold temperatures for snowmaking.

    We should see the mountain ops teams at the resorts try to get some stuff open next weekend I reckon with man made coverage.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS C (Vic) is very bullish on this for Southern Vic tomorrow.
    Well above the 5-10cm other models are showing. OCF doesn't seem interested in it.
     
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  28. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM have upgraded their forecast

     
  29. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quite an upgrade for Fredo when Southern Vic are only getting 10 - from a (supposedly) southerly-favouring system?

    Is the terrain 'thing' more than temp/moisture thingy? (Do to speak!) ( ;-)
     
  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think they are looking at Access-R.
    Remember that upper value only means a 25% chance of occurring.