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Predictions 18-22 August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2016.

  1. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, too early to start a new thread. Just pointing out what i am watching.

    I'll leave it to CC to make the call when/if it is worth starting one
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Lets see if it's there at 240 hours first and then we can make a call.
     
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  3. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It would be nice if one system peaked over Vic / NSW instead of WA.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A bit of a long shot, but GFS is suggesting a Tasman low to potentially provide a bit of love on the 20th.

    IMO

     
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC not going with it.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's not like EC to turn it's nose up at GFS...
     
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  7. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    :tany:
     
  8. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Little low showing up at the end of the current BoM 4 dayer in the bottom left corner.

    Long shot but if it can beat the ridge from the trailing high and roid up through the bite then its a maybe.

    Long shot but be worth seeing if its still there on tomorrows run.

    We are overdue a sneaky surpriser/upgrade. Just sayin ;)
     
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  9. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am going to try and stay positive and wait for it to swing around a couple of times between now & then. I will keep the vibe until....this occurs :deadhorse:
     
  10. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm fascinated by the dominating highs nws the AAO. Still some reasonable hope that the current scenario will improve Imo
     
  11. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmmm mmmmaybe !
    Can you tell I'm on the hill later next week ;)
    [​IMG]
     
  12. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not liking the current SST anomoly in the bite. Has been trending to the negative for the last few months.

    Makes sense to why we have been struggling for a big base so far.

    Too much warm moisture from the North West feeding the Pre Frontal and not enough heat in the bite to give the last minute moisture pickup as the fronts pass over IMO.

    A season of bad timing so far.
     
  13. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    We've had the cold air , even yesterday.
    As you say not picked up the moisture into the systems makes sense.
    IOD has been playing the game but Step 2 not quite happening.
     
  14. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe a dusting at best. That is all. Unless some serious weather patterns start happening in the next week or so Spring skiing looks grim. No real frozen base. I love the optimism but I'm a realist.
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looking like a fast cut off low on both EC and GFS, but GFS has the Tasman Low going. Going off the current numbers, maybe 30cm, 10-20cm more likely IMO
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Been on the hill lately ?
    Was far king solid last week ( end) when I last played.
    I think the base is fine. (bc looking rather corrugated tho)
    We just need the cream on top IMO.
     
  17. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The cream on top is great. If the top isn't glued to the ground the whole lot melts very quickly. I have not been to your resort but if you have sink holes appearing it equals no solid ice base. Just my obs. Enjoy it while you can and have fun.:cheers:
     
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think if you get lucky you see 20cm, and then only in NSW.
    Going on EC, there's zilch.
    IMO
     
  19. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heres hoping it clicks in the next 4 weeks.

    It will all come together before Summer sets in. Just hoping its not after the lifts have stopped turning like a few years back.

    Its painful watching the 3 Foot Storm finally hit after the lifties have gone home.

    Still some time up the sleeve.

    Back on tonic
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah even better.
    Moar than happy to earn my turns...
    but all this for bbq
     
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  21. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    This 18-19th period still has potential. The progression doesn't need alot to change for a few upgrades IMO.
    The position of the high sw of Perth is nearly where it needs to be on GFS and looks better on the end of the weatherzone synoptic.
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Tasman low gone from the 06Z GFS run.
     
  23. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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  24. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Not looking very good with Fronts getting pushed south. Worse, it really heats up over the next 7 days with 7 and 8 degree days at Perisher Village level.
     
  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    WA system again
     
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  26. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag looks ok for end of next week but , yes looks like Ridgey McRidge face wins the battle till then
     
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  27. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is losing all its nodiness... Spring has sprung
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Big zonal highs, bad news. IMO
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Tasman low back on GFS

    [​IMG]
     
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  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looks a lot better. Upgrades all round even for Saturday.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    still looks pretty meh to me. But it's marginally better than this morning. IMO
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can only really expect single digit mm falls when under the influence of 1020hPa IMO.
     
  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I am looking at the big fat high stable high Saturday night to Tuesday morning. Anything on Saturday will help for some epic BC weather in the alpine, and I wont even have to remember the snowy mountains forecast.:froth:

    When you can see, its lot easier to deal with the ice and find the windblown.:oops:

    And it might even corn up a bit on Monday. Sunshine.:rolleyes:
    [​IMG]
     
  34. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models are whack
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wrong thread?
     
  36. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wait for tomorrows 4 day BOM. I think the leading High wont bubble back as much into the bight as showing on the 16th so the Low in the bottom left should get a clearer run at the ALPs as long as the trailing doesn't ridge in too quickly.

    Re the models being whack, i think the changing season uncertainty is setting in early. Lows are already showing up along the North WA and NT coast so it will confuse things.

    Just keep in mind that it is early/mid August so the Polar is at its best and once the sun starts shining further into the frozen south, it will introduce energy into the system so it becomes very fluid and can change very quickly.

    Dont write off the Olympic Year just yet IMO
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Way too early to start writing this year off.
    We're in for a decent spanking or two yet.
     
  38. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Sadly when I left PV last sunday I noticed a fair amount of running water underneath which is slowly eating up the pack from within. Warmer temps coming will accellerate this effect , cant (at this stage) see the season extending much past mid september , well not in a meaningful way anyway. Deteriation may become quite swift.
    Maybe this situation has changed over the past 5 days , I will find out tomorrow when I get up there again.
     
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  39. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dunno mate but cant see any cause to not agree.
    Haven't been there since last Sunday.
    I'm on the hill for few days next Wednesday if any one is around keen to share some turns.
     
  40. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have a few mates up there today who said it has turned very icy so hopefully this has stopped the rot for a few days and has consolidated the pack.

    Might be enough to buy us a few extra days to allow the forecast to look better.

    As long as the ice base is still extensive when the next system hits then all good. If we are seeing widespread grass then stick a fork in it cause its done
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12Z looking ok still for next Friday/Saturday. Prefrontal has been downgraded and the upper reaches (>1800m) mainly snow IMO.
    [​IMG]
    GFS is along the same lines.

    15-20cm seems likely for the major resorts IMO.
     
  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looking Goodo on Access G.

    [​IMG]
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z GFS has pre-frontal stacked up against the front so still seems short and sharp until the colder air fills in. Maybe ~15mm as pre-frontal. 15-20cm to follow Friday eve/Saturday IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sketchy IMO.
    500's are not that cold and 850's are only just.
    Looking like a snotty sorta day on Friday for now.
    Maybe I best have a beer or three , check the charts again and report back ;)
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Resort snow from around 7pm Friday IMO
    [​IMG]
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z Run. Not as good as this morning's run but I still like it for snow down to ~1400m.
    [​IMG]
     
  47. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Isobars look all wrong . Too far apart and far too much Westerly weather pattern. Nothing out of that looks like snow IMO.
     
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  48. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher Village fwiw...
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has the cooler air inbound for the alps a little earlier than GFS (circa 5pm-ish).
    [​IMG]
     
  50. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep .
    Viz Yr.No