Predictions 18-22 August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2016.

  1. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    High pressure progged relatively weak....looking forward to a date range extension for this one
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looking unchanged on the 12Z run, GFS going for a traditional ECL after Friday.

    Whilst EC says a Tasman low too IMO the duration and intensity seem embellished (GFS) and I think it'll be downgraded on the 00Z run.
     
  3. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still peaking too early IMO , the gets squeezd looking at Spag.
    Pressures not the best either i. e too high.
    All 3 look like Tasman low .
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It peaks about 3 days before over SW WA, not much we can do about it... It's still good for up to 15cm IMO.
     
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  5. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    As most of them have
     
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  6. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow-forecast like this one at the moment with heavy snow late Friday. Wish / hope / pray it will stick.
     
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  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Friday night looks ok on Stormcast.
     
  8. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unless you happen to be running the Oxfam 100, in which case it looks like bad timing.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 12Z sticking to it's guns with ref to deepening Tasman Low. I am keen to see it's placement on EC tonight.
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    540 line very precarious there
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Far from ideal, although very on-trend for this season.
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Good snowmaking potential prior may help things a bit.
     
  13. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00z GFS has upgraded IMO. Certainly back to winter after Friday.

    This year is very post el-nino in vibe: ie 1983 and 1995. (Warm burst in August but decent cold fronts afterwards).
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z going it's own way from Saturday on-wards, with a cut off low SW of Vic.
    Otherwise, locked in for Friday night/Saturday IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    GFS is looking real cold on Saturday evening. Precipitation probably would have gone by then.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO, I'm not seeing any real change to what we saw late last week.
    Rain Friday below 1900m, snow above, with the snow level lowering late afternoon & evening.
    Colder on Saturday, with a few snow showers.
     
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  17. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    lots of pre-frontal.... drys right up after it passes imo.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Think we'll see a bit more cold front action late August / early September?
     
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  19. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    EC 12UTC run has gone totally whack towards the end of the run IMO:

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM made a similar prediction some months back
     
  21. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Jane is awfully optimistic this year imo. Here's hoping.
     
  22. travelislife

    travelislife One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmm, heading up to Buller this weekend. Thinking of heading up Friday as well, go or no go? Could get a bit wet?
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes it could get wet, but the snowpack is at its best at Buller. Hopefully it should stick around for a while.
     
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  24. Martyr

    Martyr Hard Yards

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    BOM 4 day map.
    I'd love to sound like I know what I'm talking about, so here goes - It looks like that low is too far south to drag enough coldness to avoid clear snow on Friday.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Yeah, looks like too much pre-frontal rubbish later this week. But Sunday-Monday could surprise if cold air and moisture mix as could be the case.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Peaking too early, sliding away. Story of winter 2016

    IMO
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sometimes the Vibe is not so good.
    Will see what happens with this system in a day or so , and looking further into next week.
     
  28. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    MR 25cm starting Friday evening with only flurries left by about mid-morning Saturday and bluebird on Sunday
     
  29. smackies

    smackies A Local

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    ^^make that happen.
     
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  30. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    invested splitfest interests there Belly??
     
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  31. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS has gone all wacky at the end of its run too. Weird.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yeh as per discussion in the "epic" thread.
     
  33. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Equal parts head and heart :) - that and I don't post in weather much anymore (excluding surf thread)
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Might just surprise on the 21st & 22nd?

    [​IMG]
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BTW, I'm opening the date range out to the 22nd.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    No agreement on GFS beyond the 20th though. Looks dry and cold, while EC gives us a nice surprise

    IMO
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Shes not a real fast mover this one .
     
  38. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    'Might just surprise on 21st-22nd?'
    Excellent - booked for FC 21st - 28th. Bring it on.
     
  39. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday daytime hrs may not be as bad as we where thinking there for a bit.
    Cold er air might arrive just in the nick with the moisture.
    Standing by for now....
     
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  40. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fingers crossed for this holding true.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    hardly conclusive yet. GFS not going with it yet. But it does look better.
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    My thoughts here fwiw..
    Shoot me if I'm wrong !.
    Fetch & pressure more favourable...

    Moisture & the hallowed 540 line.....

    850's at 1440 +/- so at resort level be 3 , 4 , 5 plus colder again.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC was alluding to this yesterday, albeit a little more developed on today's 00Z (looking weak but weak could mean some lingering moisture in the trough IMO):
     
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Actually this morning 12z run was a touch better, but I didn't want to say too much until it stayed for a couple of runs.
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair play.
    Not sure I agree with EC from Monday onwards, the inland trough over NW WA, can't do much good with a warming southerly injection.
    It needs to play this one out on Friday night before it can understand and prog Monday's progression IMO.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm far from convinced as well. Seems unlikely. CMC sort of half way there though.
     
  47. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Current polar chart looks good. The trailing high is centered just off the East Coast of Africa with the leading off the NSW South Coast.

    A cluster of lows are in between so all we need is for one or two to slingshot north and we get our sneaky upgrade.

    Looking better today than it did on Friday.
     
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  48. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Arriving on 21st at Perisher, so have an interest. Predictions have gone from a lot of pre-frontal Friday and minimal snow Saturday to mostly moderate snow on Friday, Saturday and continuing flurries at above 1200m through the week. I am very happy to take that.
     
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  49. smackies

    smackies A Local

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    I predict I wont be thrilled to be putting up a tent on Friday night.
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO the majority of Friday will hold rain below 1800m (pre-frontal rain is virtually a given here), until you see the trough pass through around 5-7pm Friday night. Still looking good for up to 15cm Fri/Saturday IMO.
     
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