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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2016.
High pressure progged relatively weak....looking forward to a date range extension for this one
EC looking unchanged on the 12Z run, GFS going for a traditional ECL after Friday.
Whilst EC says a Tasman low too IMO the duration and intensity seem embellished (GFS) and I think it'll be downgraded on the 00Z run.
Still peaking too early IMO , the gets squeezd looking at Spag.
Pressures not the best either i. e too high.
All 3 look like Tasman low .
It peaks about 3 days before over SW WA, not much we can do about it... It's still good for up to 15cm IMO.
As most of them have
Snow-forecast like this one at the moment with heavy snow late Friday. Wish / hope / pray it will stick.
Friday night looks ok on Stormcast.
Unless you happen to be running the Oxfam 100, in which case it looks like bad timing.
GFS 12Z sticking to it's guns with ref to deepening Tasman Low. I am keen to see it's placement on EC tonight.
540 line very precarious there
Far from ideal, although very on-trend for this season.
Good snowmaking potential prior may help things a bit.
00z GFS has upgraded IMO. Certainly back to winter after Friday.
This year is very post el-nino in vibe: ie 1983 and 1995. (Warm burst in August but decent cold fronts afterwards).
EC 00Z going it's own way from Saturday on-wards, with a cut off low SW of Vic.
Otherwise, locked in for Friday night/Saturday IMO.
GFS is looking real cold on Saturday evening. Precipitation probably would have gone by then.
IMO, I'm not seeing any real change to what we saw late last week.
Rain Friday below 1900m, snow above, with the snow level lowering late afternoon & evening.
Colder on Saturday, with a few snow showers.
lots of pre-frontal.... drys right up after it passes imo.
Think we'll see a bit more cold front action late August / early September?
EC 12UTC run has gone totally whack towards the end of the run IMO:
BOM made a similar prediction some months back
Jane is awfully optimistic this year imo. Here's hoping.
Hmm, heading up to Buller this weekend. Thinking of heading up Friday as well, go or no go? Could get a bit wet?
Yes it could get wet, but the snowpack is at its best at Buller. Hopefully it should stick around for a while.
BOM 4 day map.
I'd love to sound like I know what I'm talking about, so here goes - It looks like that low is too far south to drag enough coldness to avoid clear snow on Friday.
Yeah, looks like too much pre-frontal rubbish later this week. But Sunday-Monday could surprise if cold air and moisture mix as could be the case.
Peaking too early, sliding away. Story of winter 2016
Sometimes the Vibe is not so good.
Will see what happens with this system in a day or so , and looking further into next week.
MR 25cm starting Friday evening with only flurries left by about mid-morning Saturday and bluebird on Sunday
^^make that happen.
invested splitfest interests there Belly??
00Z GFS has gone all wacky at the end of its run too. Weird.
yeh as per discussion in the "epic" thread.
Equal parts head and heart - that and I don't post in weather much anymore (excluding surf thread)
Might just surprise on the 21st & 22nd?
BTW, I'm opening the date range out to the 22nd.
No agreement on GFS beyond the 20th though. Looks dry and cold, while EC gives us a nice surprise
Shes not a real fast mover this one .
'Might just surprise on 21st-22nd?'
Excellent - booked for FC 21st - 28th. Bring it on.
Friday daytime hrs may not be as bad as we where thinking there for a bit.
Cold er air might arrive just in the nick with the moisture.
Standing by for now....
Fingers crossed for this holding true.
hardly conclusive yet. GFS not going with it yet. But it does look better.
My thoughts here fwiw..
Shoot me if I'm wrong !.
Fetch & pressure more favourable...
Moisture & the hallowed 540 line.....
850's at 1440 +/- so at resort level be 3 , 4 , 5 plus colder again.
EC was alluding to this yesterday, albeit a little more developed on today's 00Z (looking weak but weak could mean some lingering moisture in the trough IMO):
Actually this morning 12z run was a touch better, but I didn't want to say too much until it stayed for a couple of runs.
Not sure I agree with EC from Monday onwards, the inland trough over NW WA, can't do much good with a warming southerly injection.
It needs to play this one out on Friday night before it can understand and prog Monday's progression IMO.
I'm far from convinced as well. Seems unlikely. CMC sort of half way there though.
Current polar chart looks good. The trailing high is centered just off the East Coast of Africa with the leading off the NSW South Coast.
A cluster of lows are in between so all we need is for one or two to slingshot north and we get our sneaky upgrade.
Looking better today than it did on Friday.
Arriving on 21st at Perisher, so have an interest. Predictions have gone from a lot of pre-frontal Friday and minimal snow Saturday to mostly moderate snow on Friday, Saturday and continuing flurries at above 1200m through the week. I am very happy to take that.
I predict I wont be thrilled to be putting up a tent on Friday night.
IMO the majority of Friday will hold rain below 1800m (pre-frontal rain is virtually a given here), until you see the trough pass through around 5-7pm Friday night. Still looking good for up to 15cm Fri/Saturday IMO.