Predictions 18-22 August

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Despite it's origin next weekend might be our turn! ;)
     
  2. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Not seeing anything too exciting just yet, there is potential though..
     
  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Looks like an extended nodal period over Australasia for the next 180 hrs from Friday Night, but fairly unpredictable how it will deliver as its looking cutoff. Perhaps a new thread.

    I think that precipitation on Friday will exceed 50 - 80 mm. Hopefully some of this will turn to snow in time, before everything down low gets washed away.

    Realistically we need a 25 to 50 cm dump plus the next dump next week to deliver the same to get August back up and running.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I haven't seen anything to suggest these types of pre frontal falls for alps, IMO.
     
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  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Thats how I interpret the models access r and GFS. The best way to check is to compare Thredbo, Perisher and Mt Buller AWS weather stations after 9 am Saturday. Maybe 80 mm is a bit bullish but definitely 50 mm is possible rain / snow mix.

    Stayed tuned and see what happens rather than trying to control the predictions.
     
    #205 7wombathead, Aug 17, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2016
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO still looking like 20-30mm prefrontal on Friday followed by 30cm afterwards.
     
  7. Martyr

    Martyr Active Member

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    BOM 4 Day map.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    So far the pre frontal temps seem to have been colder then expected so I'm sticking with that. Not a lot of rain and 20cm of snow clearing by Sat lunch time.
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS for people in the Central, South West and parts of the North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 11:02 am Wednesday, 17 August 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A low pressure system is expected to rapidly intensify south of the Bight during Thursday and an associated cold front will reach western Victoria on Thursday evening.
    DAMAGING WINDS, northerlies averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to develop on Thursday morning over the Southwest, Wimmera, Central and North Central districts. These winds are expected to persist for at least 12 hours.
    These winds are likely to move into eastern parts of Victoria late on Thursday into Friday morning and could become even stronger during that period as the cold front moves over Victoria.


    [​IMG]


    Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Warrnambool, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Perth just had the front move through with 7mm in an hour - no real/significant temp drop @15/16C. A good indicator that even the peaking system has some warm moisture ahead of cold air. Pre-frontal (20-30mm) still a given for Friday, IMO.
    It'll be interesting to see T-skews tonight.
     
  11. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Looks to be a warm trough in front of the colder air but as it crosses SA, the cold front catches up so hopefully we get a good churn happening to mix the Pineapple with the colder air.

    Hasn't really happened yet this year but we are due and there is no shortage of cold air behind the front so fingers crossed.
     
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  12. PiedPiper

    PiedPiper Well-Known Member

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    Anyone care to make a prediction as to when the R**N will start @ NSW resorts on Friday?
     
  13. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Im not game just yet. Need to see If the front catches the trough as it passes SA IMO. if the trough leads the charge then is not ideal.

    Early indicators say moisture arrives around midday/1pm. But system is very fluid ATM
     
  14. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Not to soon after 1pm.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    They'll be wintery mix in the resorts for much of Friday above 1800m but I think accumulation in the resorts is likely from mid-arvo Friday. IMO
     
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  16. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    BOM 4 dayer looks like the Hair Dryer will be turned on late Thurs and peaking Friday mid morning but am hoping for a quick shift to cooler temps by mid arvo
     
  17. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    Looks similar in many ways to the node a month ago. Here's hoping the 135mm of rain stays away this time.
     
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  18. Belly

    Belly Addicted Member
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    I thought my 25cm was bullish (and so did others) :)
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    00Z GFS - before cold change


    After cold change



    IMO
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGfor DAMAGING WINDS for people in parts of the Snowy Mountains and
    Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts.


    Issued at 3:23 pm Wednesday, 17 August 2016.

    VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN ALPINE AREAS LATER ON THURSDAY

    SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
    Increasing northwesterly winds ahead of a cold front expected to move through the area later on Friday.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are expected to develop in the Alpine areas above 1200 metres during Thursday afternoon. In elevation above 1900 metres winds may average above 80 km/h with winds gusts in excess of 125 km/h.

    Locations which may be affected include Jindabyne, Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass, Thredbo and Adaminaby.

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    AXS-R for Friday-Saturday. Upgrade in moisture IMO.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Perisher BoM

    Thursday 18 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 9
    Very windy. Sunny.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 5% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Sunny. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h turning northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h during the morning then increasing to 55 to 70 km/h in the evening.

    Sun protection 10:30am to 2:10pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]


    Friday 19 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 2
    Max 7
    Rain or snow. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain or snow, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 65 to 85 km/h decreasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the late afternoon then tending westerly 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

    Saturday 20 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max -2
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h increasing to 35 to 45 km/h during the evening.

    Sunday 21 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 0
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Monday 22 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 4
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.
     
  23. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Agree with pre-frontal, post I'm only seeing to 10 to maybe 15cm into the next morning..

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    That sounds about right, but I think there's another 10-15cm on Sunday and Monday.
     
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  25. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Oh sweet! Gotchya
     
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  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep .
    Shoots down my read (aka optimism) from few days back.
    More moisture progged and temps few degs warmer than then too.
    Liking the upgrades to follow tho atm.
     
  27. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    What im seeing is downgrade on pre frontal and decent updrade after the 540 passes? 45cents.

    Or am I drunk?
     
  28. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Wind back the AXS R output from 72 hrs to about 54hrs and you'll see that about half the early moisture will fall as rain before the cold air hits.
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep , and worse / more widespread for Vic.
     
  30. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Hmmm, NSW BOM going for snow above 1000M NSW CT's Saturday.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC suggesting 4-5pm for Perisher, so Vic resorts maybe and hour or two before.
    [​IMG]
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Mid-arvo for Vic resorts according to Yr.No/EC
    MOUNT BULLER
    [​IMG]
     
  33. MickM

    MickM Dedicated Member
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    Looks to be a bit of an upgrade by the charts. Might be a good Sept like 2003!!
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Seems inline with previous runs, both GFS and EC IMO. 20-30mm prefrontal and 15cm Friday/Saturday and steady falls Sun/Mon for another ~15cm, I think.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    AXS-R on board. Snowfall 10pm Friday-10pm Sat IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  36. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Yep!
     
  37. Bien E

    Bien E Active Member

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    how we looking for wind for the weekend?
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Friday AM looks a little tough with strong N/NW winds but moderate WNW by the arvo.
    Saturday moderate Westerly's, Mod-strong by the evening.
    Sunday Moderate NW's.

    Other than Friday AM, nothing to say resort windhold to me.
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    NAVGEM gives us a blob of precipitation. Mostly r**n
    The bits behind the front over the alps will be where the snow is to be had.

    [​IMG]
    GFS Temperature.
    Snow to 1800m during the evening, 1500m after 8-10pm. IMO

    @jeffx Keep the charts coming please :)
     
  41. Belly

    Belly Addicted Member
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    Not really to off topic ;) - is it unusual for the BoM to release a weather warning alert two days out from the event like they did yesterday?
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Not unusual. Vic BOM will quite often do this 24 to 36 hours before, especially for winds or possible flood events.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Jane a bit light on, on her prefrontal perhaps, IMO. Otherwise I think she's spot on there.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS for people in the Central, South West, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 10:45 am Thursday, 18 August 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A low pressure system is expected to continue to rapidly intensify south of the Bight during Thursday and an associated cold front will reach western Victoria on Thursday evening then slowly extend across the remainder of the State on Friday.

    DAMAGING WINDS, northerlies averaging 50 to 65 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to continue to develop on Thursday afternoon over the Southwest, Wimmera, Central and North Central districts. These winds will then extend to elevated parts of the Northeast and Gippsland districts later in the afternoon and evening.

    Locations that may be affected include Horsham, Warrnambool, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat,
    Geelong and Melbourne.

    DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, northerlies averaging 70 to 90 km/h with peak gusts at 130 km/h are expected to develop about Alpine peaks above 1200 metres elevation within the Northeast and Gippsland districts Thursday night, and continue into late on Friday afternoon.
    Locations likely to be affected include Mount Buller, Mount Hotham, Falls Creek and Mount Baw-Baw


    These winds are expected to persist well into Friday morning over Central and elevated eastern areas but will begin to moderate in the Southwest and Wimmera with the onset of a rain band very late on Thursday evening.

    [​IMG]
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  46. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey Dedicated Member
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    Time to batten down the hatches again in Melbourne :eek:
     
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  47. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  48. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    BOM have raised the snow level from 1000 M to 1100 M for NSW CTs on Saturday
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM going for 15-35mm of precip tomorrow @Thredbo.

    Perisher Meteogram/EC suggests we get the better half of the rain deal tomorrow.
    [​IMG]
     
  50. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold Dedicated Member
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    Sorry to be a naysayer, but being a realist, I see rain and lucky to see a dusting to make up for the loss. Spring has sprung on those forecasts.
     
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