Looks like an extended nodal period over Australasia for the next 180 hrs from Friday Night, but fairly unpredictable how it will deliver as its looking cutoff. Perhaps a new thread. I think that precipitation on Friday will exceed 50 - 80 mm. Hopefully some of this will turn to snow in time, before everything down low gets washed away. Realistically we need a 25 to 50 cm dump plus the next dump next week to deliver the same to get August back up and running.
Thats how I interpret the models access r and GFS. The best way to check is to compare Thredbo, Perisher and Mt Buller AWS weather stations after 9 am Saturday. Maybe 80 mm is a bit bullish but definitely 50 mm is possible rain / snow mix. Stayed tuned and see what happens rather than trying to control the predictions.
So far the pre frontal temps seem to have been colder then expected so I'm sticking with that. Not a lot of rain and 20cm of snow clearing by Sat lunch time.
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS for people in the Central, South West and parts of the North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts. Issued at 11:02 am Wednesday, 17 August 2016. WEATHER SITUATION: A low pressure system is expected to rapidly intensify south of the Bight during Thursday and an associated cold front will reach western Victoria on Thursday evening. DAMAGING WINDS, northerlies averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to develop on Thursday morning over the Southwest, Wimmera, Central and North Central districts. These winds are expected to persist for at least 12 hours. These winds are likely to move into eastern parts of Victoria late on Thursday into Friday morning and could become even stronger during that period as the cold front moves over Victoria. Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Warrnambool, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.
Perth just had the front move through with 7mm in an hour - no real/significant temp drop @15/16C. A good indicator that even the peaking system has some warm moisture ahead of cold air. Pre-frontal (20-30mm) still a given for Friday, IMO. It'll be interesting to see T-skews tonight.
Looks to be a warm trough in front of the colder air but as it crosses SA, the cold front catches up so hopefully we get a good churn happening to mix the Pineapple with the colder air. Hasn't really happened yet this year but we are due and there is no shortage of cold air behind the front so fingers crossed.
Im not game just yet. Need to see If the front catches the trough as it passes SA IMO. if the trough leads the charge then is not ideal. Early indicators say moisture arrives around midday/1pm. But system is very fluid ATM
They'll be wintery mix in the resorts for much of Friday above 1800m but I think accumulation in the resorts is likely from mid-arvo Friday. IMO
BOM 4 dayer looks like the Hair Dryer will be turned on late Thurs and peaking Friday mid morning but am hoping for a quick shift to cooler temps by mid arvo
Looks similar in many ways to the node a month ago. Here's hoping the 135mm of rain stays away this time.
SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGfor DAMAGING WINDS for people in parts of the Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts. Issued at 3:23 pm Wednesday, 17 August 2016. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN ALPINE AREAS LATER ON THURSDAY SYNOPTIC SITUATION: Increasing northwesterly winds ahead of a cold front expected to move through the area later on Friday. DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are expected to develop in the Alpine areas above 1200 metres during Thursday afternoon. In elevation above 1900 metres winds may average above 80 km/h with winds gusts in excess of 125 km/h. Locations which may be affected include Jindabyne, Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass, Thredbo and Adaminaby.
Perisher BoM Thursday 18 August Summary Min -2 Max 9 Very windy. Sunny. Possible rainfall: 0 mm Chance of any rain: 5% Alpine Area area Sunny. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h turning northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h during the morning then increasing to 55 to 70 km/h in the evening. Sun protection 10:30am to 2:10pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate] Friday 19 August Summary Min 2 Max 7 Rain or snow. Very windy. Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mm Chance of any rain: 95% Alpine Area area Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain or snow, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 65 to 85 km/h decreasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the late afternoon then tending westerly 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Saturday 20 August Summary Min -4 Max -2 Snow showers. Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 90% Alpine Area area Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h increasing to 35 to 45 km/h during the evening. Sunday 21 August Summary Min -4 Max 0 Snow shower or two. Possible rainfall: 2 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 70% Alpine Area area Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h. Monday 22 August Summary Min -3 Max 4 Snow shower or two. Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm Chance of any rain: 70% Alpine Area area Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.
Yep . Shoots down my read (aka optimism) from few days back. More moisture progged and temps few degs warmer than then too. Liking the upgrades to follow tho atm.
What im seeing is downgrade on pre frontal and decent updrade after the 540 passes? 45cents. Or am I drunk?
Wind back the AXS R output from 72 hrs to about 54hrs and you'll see that about half the early moisture will fall as rain before the cold air hits.
Seems inline with previous runs, both GFS and EC IMO. 20-30mm prefrontal and 15cm Friday/Saturday and steady falls Sun/Mon for another ~15cm, I think.
Friday AM looks a little tough with strong N/NW winds but moderate WNW by the arvo. Saturday moderate Westerly's, Mod-strong by the evening. Sunday Moderate NW's. Other than Friday AM, nothing to say resort windhold to me.
NAVGEM gives us a blob of precipitation. Mostly r**n The bits behind the front over the alps will be where the snow is to be had. GFS Temperature. Snow to 1800m during the evening, 1500m after 8-10pm. IMO @jeffx Keep the charts coming please
Not really to off topic - is it unusual for the BoM to release a weather warning alert two days out from the event like they did yesterday?
Not unusual. Vic BOM will quite often do this 24 to 36 hours before, especially for winds or possible flood events.
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS for people in the Central, South West, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts. Issued at 10:45 am Thursday, 18 August 2016. WEATHER SITUATION: A low pressure system is expected to continue to rapidly intensify south of the Bight during Thursday and an associated cold front will reach western Victoria on Thursday evening then slowly extend across the remainder of the State on Friday. DAMAGING WINDS, northerlies averaging 50 to 65 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to continue to develop on Thursday afternoon over the Southwest, Wimmera, Central and North Central districts. These winds will then extend to elevated parts of the Northeast and Gippsland districts later in the afternoon and evening. Locations that may be affected include Horsham, Warrnambool, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, northerlies averaging 70 to 90 km/h with peak gusts at 130 km/h are expected to develop about Alpine peaks above 1200 metres elevation within the Northeast and Gippsland districts Thursday night, and continue into late on Friday afternoon. Locations likely to be affected include Mount Buller, Mount Hotham, Falls Creek and Mount Baw-Baw These winds are expected to persist well into Friday morning over Central and elevated eastern areas but will begin to moderate in the Southwest and Wimmera with the onset of a rain band very late on Thursday evening.
BOM going for 15-35mm of precip tomorrow @Thredbo. Perisher Meteogram/EC suggests we get the better half of the rain deal tomorrow.
Sorry to be a naysayer, but being a realist, I see rain and lucky to see a dusting to make up for the loss. Spring has sprung on those forecasts.
