Predictions 18-22 August

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    That's not like you!;)

    Not sure of your source but nothing suggests a 'dusting' from all the charts/models/ensembles I've seen.
     
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  2. Bullerdonk

    Bullerdonk Active Member

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    Jane calling 50-100cm in the next week.
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Jane says 'So much snow'. That always means lots of snow
    I am hoping for some low level snow for Baw Baw, Maybe 15cm for Baw Baw in this event
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Norr-Westerrrrly.....
     
  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Nice and cold Friday Night for snow at Baw Baw and Lake Mountain.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    ^^^ That's Saturday 10am. Just sayin'...
     
  7. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Sorry, I think it is going to begin snowing at 1500m at Midnight Friday Night/Saturday Morning. I think I will leave the lions share of short term predicting to others :cheers:
     
  8. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Not unrealistic IMO.

    25th System should be good for fibby cents and the same again is possible for the 28th.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Agreed, still way off though.
    Can't forget 20-30cm in the next 3-4 days either!
    #groundcooler
     
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  10. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    I feel the vibe returning
     
  11. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    The regulars may remember back in early July I made the comment that i hoped the early season moisture would still be around in August and this system is why.

    We have had no shortage of moisture this year but most has fallen as pre frontal rain rather than snow. The ingredient missing was that solid self sustaining system bringing the really cold air with it.

    We have had a few cold fronts but not the really big, take no prisioners systems that roll out of the Antarctic and blast their way across the South East.

    I know i am rambling and talking this system up but so far, this is looking really good. The kind of system that only rolls around every few years if your lucky IMO.

    still a long way to go so ill put it away and just say... Go You Good Thing
     
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  12. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Lets see the temperature in the early AM, and when it goes down. Front is aimed at between 2 & 6pm , it should drop quickly after that, 10mm of rain and then snow, Up high may all be snow. I am not too worried about 1500m, I sleep higher than that. lol
     
  13. seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

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    I really like your enthusiasm and I hope you're right as I have tenatively planned a trip next weekend but a week out is a long way for the models to be consistent to give us what they're showing. We've had a few epic dumps in the models this year that have fizzled to zero well inside a week. I'm checking my enthusiasm until Monday
     
  14. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

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    Go Baw Baw :rolleyes::rolleyes:
     
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  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    This weekends events seems to be getting stronger. It just might keep it together. Adelaide AWS is showing cool air and lots of precipitation.

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Monday looking a lot drier than previous runs IMO.
     
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Been out of the country for a few weeks, back on board today.

    This looks like a nice little front, with a bit of pre-frontal but not too bad, and something that looks likely to drop around a foot at the majors. It gets weird on Sunday on the charts, so i'm not willing to comment on Monday yet. Next week looks serious though.
     
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    This is looking better and better. Friday Night could see the pre-frontal really deliver IMO. I am think of going up Saturday for some chairlift action.

    The bulk of the precipitation is behind the 546 line.

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    @Claude Cat how much are you predicting for the majors out of this event? On board with Jane?
     
  21. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    IMO NSW should see 20cm tonight, VIC more, another 10-15cm this weekend?
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I've always thought we'd get 10-15 on both Saturday and Sunday, plus whatever we got today.
    So sort of 30cm worst case, 40cm best case?
    And chance of a bonus on Monday, 5-10cm if it works?
    IMO
     
    #272 Claude Cat, Aug 19, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2016
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  23. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    NSW or VIC?
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I think NSW will do a little better.
     
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  25. Frankbarfeet

    Frankbarfeet Just Registered

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    Upgrades happening as we speak.
    Maybe at least 20cm tonight at Thredbo. IMO
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Still another 20-30cm in this, perhaps.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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