Predictions 18-22 Sep Winter Redux

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
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Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
Weather Zone.0939 17/09/21
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Young Angus

One of Us
Ski Pass
Oct 14, 2018
525
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The Bellarine
So what is the consensus this Saturday then...is it going to be snowing here in VIC or is the r#$% going to spoil the parade until it starts snowing on Sunday into Monday?
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
12,506
13,057
813
Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
So what is the consensus this Saturday then...is it going to be snowing here in VIC or is the r#$% going to spoil the parade until it starts snowing on Sunday into Monday?
My guess is that if you can be on planks at 8 am on Tuesday you will be the winner at many Vic. ski locations.
 
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Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
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woonona
BOM have now come to the party rainfall not quite so heavy and snow later 15 to 45 mm of rain before snow let’s see
Looking at the timing.
Cold air arrives mid arvo.
Moisture pretty much gone by then IMO.
Here is the moisture accumulation before then.
sat sept.png
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
12,506
13,057
813
Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
EC modelling which waxes and wanes predicts a good snow fall for Baw Baw on Monday and Tuesday. Wed. morning next week will be interesting to look at by way of the snow cameras. Possibly the best of all Vic. ski locations. For Nordic ski touring the whole Baw Baw Plateau you need about 50 cms + and that simply has not happened up there this season, irrespective of whether any XC skiers were/are allowed to go there or not.
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nickxylophone

Hard Yards
Apr 23, 2017
65
213
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Hobart
Right at the end of this date range (24th) looks potentially interesting for tas. Very cold and quite wet. Looks to have been played around with by both models for a while now.
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
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Oct 26, 2002
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Yeah, down low and surface tows the key, if it must be done.

At Thredbo that is fairly impossible. Whole place was on windhold this morning and tomorrow is forecast to be wilder.

I have my doubts any lift will run in NSW tomorrow.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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At Thredbo that is fairly impossible. Whole place was on windhoek thus morning and tomorrow is forecast to be wilder.

I have my doubts any lift will run in NSW tomorrow.
It'll be blowing a dog-off-a-chain conditions but I don't think it'll be too bad up the hill.
Lots of downsloping in this one IMO, so gusty as hell in Jindy, pseudo bin day etc.

Be stuff spinning by the arvo, no probs.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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Snow possible above 500m Monday night 6pm-midnight (Wilsons, Otways & Surf Coast).
At a guess settling above 7/800m (obviously for Baw Baw NP etc)
BOM, Prom forecast:

Monday 20 September​

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. Snow possible above 1200m in the morning, lowering to above 500 metres by the late evening. The chance of a thunderstorm from the late morning. Gusty winds and possible hail. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h turning westerly 30 to 45 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 14.

Tuesday 21 September​

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Snow falling above 500 metres in the early morning, rising to above 1200 metres by noon. The chance of a thunderstorm near the coast in the morning. Possible small hail in the morning. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h turning westerly 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 6 and 13.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
12,506
13,057
813
Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
EC/ Ms. Bunn 0846 20/9/21
The totals are spread out over days so possibly no big dump which could be XC skiable at Lower elevation smaller ski locations. Baw Baw has closed its lifts unless they get enough real snow on a weekend between now and early October .
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1632091630106.png
 
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