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Predictions 18-23rd August - The Whole Shooting Match

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 11, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Once we're over this bump at the end of the week, we look to see a swift wave pattern pass the SE 18-21st.

    Aided by a diving AAO, we see an amplification of a number of short wave systems through this date range.

    Looking reasonably solid on deterministic at this point
    EC:

    There's at least 3 embedded systems in this window IMO: Tuesday pm, Wednesday PM & a trough on Thursday AM.
    [​IMG]

    GFS has reasonable support although the trend is broken after it dropped it last night on it's 06z run.
     
  2. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    This looks good. Some forecasters going for 40 on the Tuesday. Pity I will not be there..
     
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  3. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM are getting behind this one too.
    Ms. Bunn's modelling looks favourable too.
     
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  4. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    This is probably the nicest long wave influence we've seen in a couple of months. I'm moderately excited, noting the unusual and unfavourable prevailing synoptic setup this year.
     
  5. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS now back on trend with 18z run

    And CMC is super bullish:
     
  6. Bogan Daddy

    Bogan Daddy Hard Yards

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    Environment Canada (the weather network) has had this one up for a few days on their 14 day. 18-20 about 50 but seems to be drier at the back end. Strong cooling trend from this Saturday. They also have something about 25th to 27th brewing.
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC and CMC agree on timing.
    GFS suggests a two part system with the good stuff a day or so later.
    IMO
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good to see the embedded low still in the mix for EC.
    It should restrict the ridge and slingshot the main feature, if it hangs in there.
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles with some approximations on synoptic features IMO.
    Tuesday looking very complex.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 18z looking extra special this AM.
    We can only hope at this stage.
     
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  11. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Like it. Looks nearly a carbon copy to last weeks system imo
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just some thoughts direct from my blog, a bit of an extended look at some of the ideas with this system.

    We see a new long wave trough come through the region around this period, which shows potential for snow-bearing cold fronts. We see a proper cold trough come up on the Tuesday and Wednesday next week, as indicated by the cold air seen on the ensembles.

    We see it squeezed between a ridge over NZ and the ridge SW of the trough towards Antarctic. This brings a longer trough trailing the main cold node, which brings a westerly theme to this particular system.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    GEFS has a very similar setup, featuring all the same key components, with a slightly enlarged upper level cold node.

    [​IMG]
    GEPS shows a zonal pattern from the Indian Ocean, with troughing anomalies stretching from WA to SE Australia, with the cold node nonetheless centred on the Southeast

    Zooming in on the deterministic point of view, we have ECMWF here:

    [​IMG]
    As one can see the front comes over SE Australia early on Tuesday, and pushes through to the Alps during the day.

    We see stronger snowfalls associated with the cold airmass on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Then we see the main node push into the Tasman on Thursday, but we see a backdoor low coming up from the south during Thursday night into Friday, pushing up into NSW throughout Friday and bringing snow to low levels further north.

    GFS shows a similar system coming down from the West on the Tues/Weds, and collapsing into the Tasman as a large-scale cold air mass. We then see the polarisation of a sharp deep low coming from the south, similar in timing to EC on Thursday night into Friday, but stronger, colder and it doesn’t shift as far north as EC.

    So overall we have a great opportunity here, looking like a 30-50cm system at the moment, even more is possible with that follow-up low from the back. Certainly looks like a more traditional system, compared to some of the Tasman-based systems of recent.
     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’d say it’s better than that system, particularly for the Alps.

    The first node coming in on the Tues/Weds


    And the second sharper low from the south on the Thurs arvo/Friday


    Some really deep cold associated with that latter front.
     
  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Nothing seems certain these days, but forecast runs progressively taking a liking to this node. Does not look cutoff. It would bet the first one this year and perhaps the start of a more conventional Winter Pattern.

    It feels like the longest June I can remember. The surf has been pumping. My shoulders ready for there winter beak.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Let's hope not... Different, and much much better.
     
  16. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks better than recent systems but the shape of the isobars in those waves just isn't quite right - still has the potential to become cut off I think... tropopause looks nice and cold though.
     
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  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yeah this year you would expect it to go Cutoff eh. See what happens.

    But I like the isobars in the above mode run
     
  18. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like another system which will favour NSW, where people can actually go skiing.
     
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  19. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  20. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Yr. no liking this system too for Perisher, much better temperatures and wind direction.

     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC doesn't have any of the follow-up GFS is soap boxing, at the moment.
    Short sharp, 2 day affair, 18-20th.
     
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  22. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to look similar.
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at the snowfall totals (based on Perisher) for all the forecasters and models:


    Forecasters hanging around that 20-50cm range at the moment.

    But as the models mature, we are starting to see more like a 50-100cm kind of range on them.

    You can see pretty consistent between GFS, EC and ACCESS.
    And of course that extraordinary outlier in CMC.

    Could be the start of something big here.
     
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  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    For those who want to see the Canadian in action, with it’s big double system:


    GFS clears the backend system faster, and doesn’t have that third part come around, like CMC.

    EC has a more polarised but contained backend that just manages to hit the Alps.
     
  25. Brett Gibson

    Brett Gibson One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Has there been any indication of Snow levels as yet for Thur Night And Friday morning? We are driving Canberra -> Ski Tube in the AM?
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it shapes out how it is now, potentially quite low.
    Like snow to 500-800m kind of low.
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    NCEP ens really like the concept of a cutoff...
     
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  28. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Addicted

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    Weatherzone likes it...
     
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  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The backend looks deep, cold and snowy on GFS 00z.
     
  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Canadian 00z was roughly 109 cm total for the duration,NSW getting the best.







     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC still looking strong for the 19th.
    No double header though.
    IMO
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC positively trending this morning with some backing of a quick follow up on the 21st.
    GFS not really holding back with system after systems reinforcing one another, quite bullish.

    EC 21st backend:
     
  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    CMC 12z End of the run rolled with the big back-end again.

     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    9 foot storm ™



    That's over 250cm of snowfall for the MR in the next 10 days.

    That would be how to turn a season around!
     
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC sticking to the 50-80cm range:


    GFS going the full metre of snowfall.
     
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  36. Brett Gibson

    Brett Gibson One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM has backed up its Wed 19th prediction with much the same (just colder) for Thursday. Tues-Thurs Total - up to 40
    upload_2020-8-14_8-52-48.png
     
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  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    CMC likes the backend eh, but also there on the other models.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM are now mumbling about "up to a metre of snow" in the Aust. Alps by Friday August 22nd. I quote them when they mention" blizzard like conditions".
     
    #40 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Aug 14, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 14, 2020
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Link please.
     
  40. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is mumbling in lower case? (Off topic soz)
     
  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    The AGE Newspaper weather forecast today. Sorry I don't have a link for that , [I read the paper in hard copy format] but I know that newspaper uses BOM for snow forecasts and swell net for surf reports.
    Here are what BOM are saying about Mt. Hotham for next week.

    Tuesday 18 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 40 km/h.

    Wednesday 19 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Snow showers. Becoming windy.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Thursday 20 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -2
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 40 to 50 km/h tending westerly 35 to 50 km/h during the morning.
     
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd suggest that it is from Weatherzone, not the Bureau?
     
  43. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    You could be right. We shall see what happens by looking at the snow cameras on Thursday next week.
     
  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC going the full metre as well now:

    Looks like we will see good falls for all of the majors (not that you can enjoy it in Victoria).

    Two deep cold upper level lows producing heavy widespread snowfall (below)
    Snow in weird places as well.
     
  45. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The BoM arent buying into anything large yet (Thredbo top, Hotham bottom).

     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's because it's not considering this arvos EC update.
    They'll be back it for-sure on tomorrow PM's bulletin.
    EC's 00z is looking the tits IMO.
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    And if you thought the Canadian was mad this morning, it’s even crazier this afternoon.


    10.5+ feet storm. About ~325cm.

    Going for a full on three pronged attack of cold fronts, with that second one particularly deeply cold and strong across the Alps.
     
  48. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO the Canook has been off its meds most of the season. Mind you pretty kooky patterns this year so far.