Once we're over this bump at the end of the week, we look to see a swift wave pattern pass the SE 18-21st. Aided by a diving AAO, we see an amplification of a number of short wave systems through this date range. Looking reasonably solid on deterministic at this point EC: There's at least 3 embedded systems in this window IMO: Tuesday pm, Wednesday PM & a trough on Thursday AM. GFS has reasonable support although the trend is broken after it dropped it last night on it's 06z run.
This is probably the nicest long wave influence we've seen in a couple of months. I'm moderately excited, noting the unusual and unfavourable prevailing synoptic setup this year.
Environment Canada (the weather network) has had this one up for a few days on their 14 day. 18-20 about 50 but seems to be drier at the back end. Strong cooling trend from this Saturday. They also have something about 25th to 27th brewing.
EC and CMC agree on timing. GFS suggests a two part system with the good stuff a day or so later. IMO
Good to see the embedded low still in the mix for EC. It should restrict the ridge and slingshot the main feature, if it hangs in there.
Just some thoughts direct from my blog, a bit of an extended look at some of the ideas with this system. We see a new long wave trough come through the region around this period, which shows potential for snow-bearing cold fronts. We see a proper cold trough come up on the Tuesday and Wednesday next week, as indicated by the cold air seen on the ensembles. We see it squeezed between a ridge over NZ and the ridge SW of the trough towards Antarctic. This brings a longer trough trailing the main cold node, which brings a westerly theme to this particular system. GEFS has a very similar setup, featuring all the same key components, with a slightly enlarged upper level cold node. GEPS shows a zonal pattern from the Indian Ocean, with troughing anomalies stretching from WA to SE Australia, with the cold node nonetheless centred on the Southeast Zooming in on the deterministic point of view, we have ECMWF here: As one can see the front comes over SE Australia early on Tuesday, and pushes through to the Alps during the day. We see stronger snowfalls associated with the cold airmass on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Then we see the main node push into the Tasman on Thursday, but we see a backdoor low coming up from the south during Thursday night into Friday, pushing up into NSW throughout Friday and bringing snow to low levels further north. GFS shows a similar system coming down from the West on the Tues/Weds, and collapsing into the Tasman as a large-scale cold air mass. We then see the polarisation of a sharp deep low coming from the south, similar in timing to EC on Thursday night into Friday, but stronger, colder and it doesn’t shift as far north as EC. So overall we have a great opportunity here, looking like a 30-50cm system at the moment, even more is possible with that follow-up low from the back. Certainly looks like a more traditional system, compared to some of the Tasman-based systems of recent.
I’d say it’s better than that system, particularly for the Alps. The first node coming in on the Tues/Weds And the second sharper low from the south on the Thurs arvo/Friday Some really deep cold associated with that latter front.
Nothing seems certain these days, but forecast runs progressively taking a liking to this node. Does not look cutoff. It would bet the first one this year and perhaps the start of a more conventional Winter Pattern. It feels like the longest June I can remember. The surf has been pumping. My shoulders ready for there winter beak.
Looks better than recent systems but the shape of the isobars in those waves just isn't quite right - still has the potential to become cut off I think... tropopause looks nice and cold though.
NEXT 7 DAYS Mt Buller: 11cm Mt Hotham: 8cm Falls Creek: 8cm Mt Baw Baw: 1cm Perisher: 22cm Thredbo: 28cm Charlotte Pass: 43cm Selwyn: 9cm Lake Mountain: 0cm Mt Stirling: 15cm Ben Lomond: 4cm Mt Mawson: 1cm
Yeah this year you would expect it to go Cutoff eh. See what happens. But I like the isobars in the above mode run
EC doesn't have any of the follow-up GFS is soap boxing, at the moment. Short sharp, 2 day affair, 18-20th.
Looking at the snowfall totals (based on Perisher) for all the forecasters and models: Forecasters hanging around that 20-50cm range at the moment. But as the models mature, we are starting to see more like a 50-100cm kind of range on them. You can see pretty consistent between GFS, EC and ACCESS. And of course that extraordinary outlier in CMC. Could be the start of something big here.
Ms. Bunn's computer says YES NEXT 7 DAYS Mt Buller: 50cm Mt Hotham: 51cm Falls Creek: 49cm Mt Baw Baw: 23cm Perisher: 78cm Thredbo: 75cm Charlotte Pass: 113cm Selwyn: 51cm Lake Mountain: 14cm Mt Stirling: 55cm Ben Lomond: 12cm Mt Mawson: 10cm
For those who want to see the Canadian in action, with it’s big double system: GFS clears the backend system faster, and doesn’t have that third part come around, like CMC. EC has a more polarised but contained backend that just manages to hit the Alps.
Has there been any indication of Snow levels as yet for Thur Night And Friday morning? We are driving Canberra -> Ski Tube in the AM?
EC positively trending this morning with some backing of a quick follow up on the 21st. GFS not really holding back with system after systems reinforcing one another, quite bullish. EC 21st backend:
9 foot storm ™ That's over 250cm of snowfall for the MR in the next 10 days. That would be how to turn a season around!
BOM has backed up its Wed 19th prediction with much the same (just colder) for Thursday. Tues-Thurs Total - up to 40
BOM are now mumbling about "up to a metre of snow" in the Aust. Alps by Friday August 22nd. I quote them when they mention" blizzard like conditions".
The AGE Newspaper weather forecast today. Sorry I don't have a link for that , [I read the paper in hard copy format] but I know that newspaper uses BOM for snow forecasts and swell net for surf reports. Here are what BOM are saying about Mt. Hotham for next week. Tuesday 18 August Summary Min -2 Max 1 Snow showers. Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm Chance of any rain: 90% Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 40 km/h. Wednesday 19 August Summary Min -3 Max -1 Snow showers. Becoming windy. Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm Chance of any rain: 90% Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h. Thursday 20 August Summary Min -3 Max -2 Snow showers. Windy. Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 90% Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 40 to 50 km/h tending westerly 35 to 50 km/h during the morning.
EC going the full metre as well now: Looks like we will see good falls for all of the majors (not that you can enjoy it in Victoria). Two deep cold upper level lows producing heavy widespread snowfall (below) Snow in weird places as well.
That's because it's not considering this arvos EC update. They'll be back it for-sure on tomorrow PM's bulletin. EC's 00z is looking the tits IMO.
And if you thought the Canadian was mad this morning, it’s even crazier this afternoon. 10.5+ feet storm. About ~325cm. Going for a full on three pronged attack of cold fronts, with that second one particularly deeply cold and strong across the Alps.
IMO the Canook has been off its meds most of the season. Mind you pretty kooky patterns this year so far.
