Separate names with a comma.
We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Après topics.
NOTE: This notice may be closed.
Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 11, 2020.
Certainly looks the goods. Is that a new trough on Monday 10:00 am or was it there yesterday?
Surely we are only just getting started...
Sorry, yes Sunday.
Just looking @ savage Saturday will post the full run when its done.
Thought that was a bullish CMC chart with a 531 line around the ACT, but nope - it's EC.
Can I ask if anyone thinks there is potential for snow/ice over the Great Western Highway in the Blue Mountains tomorrow night?
My reading is, no...snow is not expected until about midnight and into Saturday morning. It also seems the BMs will be significantly in the shadow of the Kamagra/Oberon area with a south west direction.
35/25mm minimum for Thredbo/Peri tomorrow via BoM update this arvo.
Y'all should see the 25% chance!!
Its just holy cow no other words for it.
There is the potential over the BM’s... I’d say more likely later tomorrow night into Saturday. As you said, the shadow impact on the BM’s will limit any snowfall there. I’d be surprised if more than a few Cm’s fell but Ice on the roads is very likely and based on past history they will close the roads quickly.
The OP is a different situation and will see settled snow before sunset tomorrow. The OP should see 15-30cm plus by Sunday morning. It will be one of their bigger falls out there if all goes to plan.
I certainly reckon Friday and Saturday will deliver more than yesterday IMO.
Looking great and big.
More snow potential to play with. Colder too.
Tassie gets a brief break but ec thinks it will remain in a constant cold snap for mostly what left of this month.
In regards to the other ec plot i posted i would not even try myself to give cm totals.
Mesoscale will likely play a big part in some areas with this system. You need ultra high
res modeling to have even a decent chance like 1kmx1km.
NW wind picking up nicely on the NSW main range.
Are we still good for snow to 5-600m in southern vic for late Tommoz/early sat?
Bom talking up. " heavy falls"
That's not that common for a typical westerly system.
They usually use that language for onshore lows like ECL.
For those who like to compare the pair. Canuck's 00z thinking.
Got sorta ridiculed last time i posted canuck. Anyways here's it thinking over next few days.
They haven’t exactly been accurate with their predictions to date for this event (and the last major one) so I’m taking their forecast with a big grain of salt. Some more sensible predictions in this thread.
Big bird coming for the kiwis!
Wow. It’s fun to dream
48 hours on and we're in the same position as what we were on Tuesday night.
A broad spread of model outputs ranging from 20cm (OCF) to 60cm (AXS-C), & EC in the 25-30cm camp for 10-10am.
Words of wisdom from @stormkite2000
Snow down to 500m in Southern Vic, yes. With 400m a 50% chance of flurries IMO.
Maybe you should post your opinions of their Global model on a Canadian snow forum during their winter season
I’m not having a go at their model, I was having fun dreaming of how good it would be if it came off...
What time frame are we looking at for when the lowest level stuff kicks in pow?
So watching the weather just now channel a few comments I picked up on. The main messages were from a BOM rep so take that how you prefer. Don’t shoot the messenger here. It’s just another source of information IMO.
1. Increased avalanche risk. Don’t hear that very often.
2. Blizzards. As above.
3. Main event on its way after the past few days. They are still calling an overall total event of about 1 metre including what has fallen already.
4. A once in 15 year event as regards some of the low level snow and durations....
I hope they are correct tbh.
Thanks @SMSkier. Agree with what they say and it's certainly a good dump (as forecast) but not sure about their "once in 15 year event" call. I wouldn't have thought one meter over 4-5 days makes it that much of an outlier.
We've had a 1m storm every year or so over the last 5 years. Certainly doesn't fit the 1-15 bill for that. Maybe for cold+precip?
Either way, bring on the weather. Feels like one of those proper windy Augusts we used to get when I was a kid.
My bad - should have clarified. See point 4. @Undies also. That was associated with snow levels, locations and potential duration at those lower levels. Let’s see. It’s just a forecast so what eventuates remains to be seen and recorded.
I think if this snowfall actually comes off, it would be a once every 5-10 yrs or so type event. Not so much the 1m of snow in Kozi, rather the widespread snow down to 600m in NSW. Every 15 yrs probably stretching it a little but the BOM chap/ette probably a little excited.
For reference, here is a photo from Hawker, ACT, 13 July 2016. Lightly settled snow in Canberra. Probably last decentish CBR snow event??
Afl game a couple of years ago?
No, my bad actually. I should have read point 4 properly! Will be good to see it come off as forecast.
Sept 17 2019. Around Royalla
That one was good - was working in the city facing Mt Ainslie and it had a good coating of snow up the top.
800+ m though
Just lol @ "1-in-15 year event".
Not even remotely. Just last year, SW NSW had a snow level of 280 m @ 35° S (Tumut). And *snow to 500 m happens pretty much every year on the western slopes. Hardly unusual.
Last month ....
* before you all bring pitchforks.
The % of NSW that could experience snow is a extraordinary event.
Whether it does.....
Serious and super exciting stuff from the BOM.
EC Ensembles calling it a 20-30cm 24 hour period 10-10am tomorrow/Sat.
Up high it looks good.
When the evening news starts mentioning avalanches you know it's all a tad oversold.
Lots of snow on the resorts would be just fantastic in this low tide weird arse season.
Friday and Saturday .................. its going to be on like donkey kong. Yeeha
@POW_hungry The Minimum Maximum is - 6.9 At Thredbo AWS isnt it. (For Australia)
-6.9°C July 1978