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Predictions 18-23rd August - The Whole Shooting Match

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 11, 2020.

  1. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly looks the goods. Is that a new trough on Monday 10:00 am or was it there yesterday?
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday?
     
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  4. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Addicted

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    Surely we are only just getting started...

     
  5. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry, yes Sunday.
     
  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just looking @ savage Saturday will post the full run when its done.

     
  7. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thought that was a bullish CMC chart with a 531 line around the ACT, but nope - it's EC.
     
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  8. sbm_

    sbm_ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Can I ask if anyone thinks there is potential for snow/ice over the Great Western Highway in the Blue Mountains tomorrow night?

    My reading is, no...snow is not expected until about midnight and into Saturday morning. It also seems the BMs will be significantly in the shadow of the Kamagra/Oberon area with a south west direction.
     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom. Wow
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    35/25mm minimum for Thredbo/Peri tomorrow via BoM update this arvo.
    Y'all should see the 25% chance!! ;)
     
  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Its just holy cow no other words for it.
     
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  12. Anewts

    Anewts Addicted

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    There is the potential over the BM’s... I’d say more likely later tomorrow night into Saturday. As you said, the shadow impact on the BM’s will limit any snowfall there. I’d be surprised if more than a few Cm’s fell but Ice on the roads is very likely and based on past history they will close the roads quickly.

    The OP is a different situation and will see settled snow before sunset tomorrow. The OP should see 15-30cm plus by Sunday morning. It will be one of their bigger falls out there if all goes to plan.
     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I certainly reckon Friday and Saturday will deliver more than yesterday IMO.

    Looking great and big.
    More snow potential to play with. Colder too.
     
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  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Tassie gets a brief break but ec thinks it will remain in a constant cold snap for mostly what left of this month.

    [​IMG]



    In regards to the other ec plot i posted i would not even try myself to give cm totals.
    Mesoscale will likely play a big part in some areas with this system. You need ultra high
    res modeling to have even a decent chance like 1kmx1km.
     
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  15. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    NW wind picking up nicely on the NSW main range.
     
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  16. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Are we still good for snow to 5-600m in southern vic for late Tommoz/early sat?
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom talking up. " heavy falls"
    That's not that common for a typical westerly system.
    They usually use that language for onshore lows like ECL.
    Usua
     
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  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    For those who like to compare the pair. Canuck's 00z thinking.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Got sorta ridiculed last time i posted canuck. Anyways here's it thinking over next few days.
     
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  20. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    They haven’t exactly been accurate with their predictions to date for this event (and the last major one) so I’m taking their forecast with a big grain of salt. Some more sensible predictions in this thread.
     
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  21. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Big bird coming for the kiwis! :eek:
     
  22. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Addicted

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    Wow. It’s fun to dream
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hear hear.
    48 hours on and we're in the same position as what we were on Tuesday night.
    A broad spread of model outputs ranging from 20cm (OCF) to 60cm (AXS-C), & EC in the 25-30cm camp for 10-10am.

    Words of wisdom from @stormkite2000

    Snow down to 500m in Southern Vic, yes. With 400m a 50% chance of flurries IMO.
     
  24. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just saying.
    Maybe you should post your opinions of their Global model on a Canadian snow forum during their winter season :whistle:
     
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  25. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Addicted

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    I’m not having a go at their model, I was having fun dreaming of how good it would be if it came off...
     
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  26. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    love it!!
    What time frame are we looking at for when the lowest level stuff kicks in pow?
     
  27. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So watching the weather just now channel a few comments I picked up on. The main messages were from a BOM rep so take that how you prefer. Don’t shoot the messenger here. It’s just another source of information IMO.

    1. Increased avalanche risk. Don’t hear that very often.

    2. Blizzards. As above.

    3. Main event on its way after the past few days. They are still calling an overall total event of about 1 metre including what has fallen already.

    4. A once in 15 year event as regards some of the low level snow and durations....

    I hope they are correct tbh.

     
  28. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks @SMSkier. Agree with what they say and it's certainly a good dump (as forecast) but not sure about their "once in 15 year event" call. I wouldn't have thought one meter over 4-5 days makes it that much of an outlier.
     
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  29. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    We've had a 1m storm every year or so over the last 5 years. Certainly doesn't fit the 1-15 bill for that. Maybe for cold+precip?

    Either way, bring on the weather. Feels like one of those proper windy Augusts we used to get when I was a kid.
     
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  30. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My bad - should have clarified. See point 4. @Undies also. That was associated with snow levels, locations and potential duration at those lower levels. Let’s see. It’s just a forecast so what eventuates remains to be seen and recorded.
     
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  31. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think if this snowfall actually comes off, it would be a once every 5-10 yrs or so type event. Not so much the 1m of snow in Kozi, rather the widespread snow down to 600m in NSW. Every 15 yrs probably stretching it a little but the BOM chap/ette probably a little excited.
     
  32. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    For reference, here is a photo from Hawker, ACT, 13 July 2016. Lightly settled snow in Canberra. Probably last decentish CBR snow event??
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Afl game a couple of years ago?
     
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  34. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    No, my bad actually. I should have read point 4 properly! Will be good to see it come off as forecast.
     
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  35. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sept 17 2019. Around Royalla

     
  36. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That one was good - was working in the city facing Mt Ainslie and it had a good coating of snow up the top.
     
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  37. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    800+ m though
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Just lol @ "1-in-15 year event". ROFL

    Not even remotely. Just last year, SW NSW had a snow level of 280 m @ 35° S (Tumut). And *snow to 500 m happens pretty much every year on the western slopes. Hardly unusual.

    *Including sleet.
     
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  40. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    * before you all bring pitchforks.
    The % of NSW that could experience snow is a extraordinary event.
    Whether it does.....
     
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  42. Maroubra Seal

    Maroubra Seal Hard Yards

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    Serious and super exciting stuff from the BOM.
     
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  43. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    :cry:
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles calling it a 20-30cm 24 hour period 10-10am tomorrow/Sat.
     
  46. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Up high it looks good.


     
  47. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    When the evening news starts mentioning avalanches you know it's all a tad oversold.

    Lots of snow on the resorts would be just fantastic in this low tide weird arse season.
     
  48. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Friday and Saturday .................. its going to be on like donkey kong. Yeeha :thumbs::):D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
     
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  49. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    @POW_hungry The Minimum Maximum is - 6.9 At Thredbo AWS isnt it. (For Australia)
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    -6.9°C July 1978
     
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