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Predictions 18-23rd August - The Whole Shooting Match

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 11, 2020.

  1. jish33

    jish33 Early Days

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    It snowed over 6 calender days in 2019 (overnight mainly) July, August and September 2019 Canberra, one of those snowfalls was a brief flurry at the AFL. It was snowing moderately last September in Canberra's west.

    The last major settled snowfall in Canberra was in May 2000 where up to 15cm fell heavily in the suburbs of Weetangera and Hawker amongst other locations, these are two of Canberra's most elevated suburbs which are slightly under 670m above sea level.

    The northwest suburbs of Canberra, in particular, Nicholls , Taylor and Casey are usually Canberra's snowiest suburbs and receive annual snowfall usually once per year on average.
     
  2. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    BOM still bullish.

    Thredbo Forecast
    View the current warnings for New South Wales

    Forecast issued at 4:45 am EST on Friday 21 August 2020.

    Forecast for the rest of Friday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Max -4
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 25 to 60 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. The chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Winds west to northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h.


    Saturday 22 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -6
    Max -5
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 30 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 35 to 55 km/h.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

    Sunday 23 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max -3
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h tending west to southwesterly 35 to 50 km/h during the morning.
     
  3. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Speckled cloud west of Tassie does not have much NE trajectory, more E, so perhaps much of the polar maritime air from Antarctic coast will be directed thru Bass Strait. Have a close look at WZ Vic sat loop. 10 am BOM MSLP update should start to show the trend.
     
  4. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Addicted

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    Is that an upgrade for tomorrow am?
     
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  5. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Double the troughs = double the froth.

    Bring on Super Sunday Skiing with Ken Calendar.
     
    piolet, IAB, whether and 3 others like this.
  6. HoopDogg

    HoopDogg Hard Yards

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    Sunshine Susie at 66 to 6!
     
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  7. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Go silver sovereign!

    Blackheath: many dangling chains. A few showers and arse cold. Looks like just a few flurries here later tonight but hopefully more.
     
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  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Perisher forecast next few days weatherzone.
     
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  9. JG

    JG Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ok Weather Guru’s - am I being too optimistic?
    Can the NW moisture get across to join the cold SW airstream and hit the alps before the cold air heads too far east?
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In short, no.

    A lot of what you're seeing is sitting at between 200-400mb in height, which is virtually in the jetstream.
    Anything 'leapfrogging' the ridge will have little/no bearing on moisture inclusion on the current system.
    Anything below this level will be brushed south by the ridge.
     
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  11. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    15+ @ -5. Enjoy tomorrow you lucky few (bastards).
     

    Attached Files:

  12. JG

    JG Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks for crushing my dreams...aka educating me, love your work POW!
     
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  13. blowfin

    blowfin One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    To be fair you probably don't want the moisture coming in from there anyway. There's not very much in it for the west coast either, some showers are expected in the SW but that's mostly due to a weak low approaching the capes.
     
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  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    Todays run.
     
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  15. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Bom now have snow to 500m in there forecast for southern vic Tommoz! Hopefully see some decent bursts of snow here in heavier showers.
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    The next 24 hours on EC
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Glad to hear BOM came to the table again. ;)
     
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  18. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Another perspective. The cloud coming in from the Indian Ocean IS in the jetstream which is gently curving over Oz and exiting the east coast where you see that bit of cloud over the most eastern extremity of the continent at 6 pm tonight. See WZ jet stream map.So it is not only at a higher level in the atmosphere than the speckled Bight cloud but is not being directed down to Vic. IMO it is going to force the Antarctic air away from a wanted by skiers NE trajectory and make it go E thru Bass Strait, which from the Sat loops is what it is appearing to do. Any cold air hitting say the NSW Central Tablelands is devoid of moisture by virtue of its low temp and won't produce any great depth of snow.
     
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  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Pretty much thinking the blue mountains will be getting a dusting around midnight or just after.So its only a few hour away.

    And the wee hours on sunday morning even better.
     
  20. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Hard Yards

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    I'm thinking if we are to get any here in the Southern Highlands it's similar - now 5 degrees with a few showers so not too far to go.
    Another slight chance late afternoon tomorrow
     
    TrustinLeewardtables likes this.
  21. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

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    That’s not what the satellite pic is showing, do you have further info? It seems to show it is blocking it
    I remember an event in the second week of October 1987 where an upper level jet stream Interacted with a surge from the south and it snowed in Canberra and the BOM guy explained why?
     
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  22. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    I am not sure what would happen at -5 in the alps.
     
  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Cbr regions should do ok for flakes late in the afternoon and late into the evening.
     
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  24. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Tahs V Brumbies tonight could be interesting
     
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  25. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    B
    But the breeze/feed from south of Tassie is heading straight for the Alps.(for now)
     
    whether likes this.
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Best chance for snow in Jindy around 7:30-8pm tonight IMO.
    Trof working its way through southern Vic ATM
     
  27. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Ah, yes, weather observing v forecasting. Low almost parked over Tas for last 12 hours so now SW flow across SE mainland OZ . A 45 degree shift has made all the difference.
     
  28. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Hi guys, would anyone please care to comment on the weather for tomorrow at Perisher?
    Windy?
    Cloud/fog/snow etc

    Wanting to know where to ride tomorrow, in resort or out.
    Hoping to go out if the wind and vis is OK.
    Thanks.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will be socked in for much of the day tomorrow at Peri IMO.
    Bit of snow (2-5cm) and 15-20 knot westerlies.
     
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  30. jish33

    jish33 Early Days

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    Sleet earlier at 7pm at my location next to Stadium.
    Radar indicates more sleet 25 minutes away.
    3.5 degrees.
     
    malas1 likes this.
  31. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Thats been the plan for quiet awhile now. After all it came straight at us. Couldn't miss