Mega Thread 19/20 Australian Monsoon & TC Season Thread

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM should issue their National TC outlook in the next 2-3 weeks.

    However, there's a few murmurs coming in from our neighboring regions regarding the forthcoming 2019/20 Tropical Cyclone season.


    I couldn't imagine much action out of the NW shelf for a few months given the dry atmos as a result of the record +IOD event.

    Nonetheless, SST's are showing some + anoms in the NW, and not far off supportive TC development 26/27C.
    Coral sea is currently under the influence of cooler waters (-'ve anom).
    [​IMG]

     
  2. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    If and when things liven up there will be a few observers up here. Myself and @William here in Cairns and @whether down the road in Townsville. I'm pretty sure there are a few North Queensland refugees from Weatherzone in here as well.
     
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  3. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I certainly can imagine this TC season being a late one.
     
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  6. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    From Weatherzone for this season :-

    Here are the names that will be given to the next 11 tropical cyclones that develop in Australia's area of responsibility:

    • Blake
    • Claudia
    • Damien
    • Esther
    • Ferdinand
    • Gretel
    • Harold
    • Imogen
    • Joshua
    • Kimi
    • Lucas
    Anyone can request to have their name added to Australia's tropical cyclone naming list. However, the request has to be submitted to the Bureau of Meteorology in writing and if it does get accepted, it'll take more than a decade before it's used.
     
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  7. StormyLee

    StormyLee Early Days

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    *Sorry I put this in the NW thread initially, so have copy and pasted into this one instead.

    So we had our first little storm of the season in Karratha last week, approx 4 - 6 weeks early for us. Airport rain gauge only gave us 0.2mm but it would have been a touch more than that, it was running off of the roof anyway and had a good flow down the road. The plants were happy :thumbs:

    BOM released their 19/20 cyclone season outlook two weeks ago, Western Region is looking at a similar season to last year according to them:
    Summary of the Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for Western Australia:
    - ~40% chance of an above average number of tropical cyclones in waters off the northwest coast (average number five).
    - Likelihood of around two coastal impacts.
    - Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/outlooks/seasonal/wa.shtml

    Lots of discussion around this upcoming season seems to be focused around the current Positive IOD and a late onset for the monsoon, but the waters to our NW shoulder seem to not GAF. Take a look at the below SST anomalies for the past week, not really what you would expect to see is it. All that warm water just cooking away waiting to birth some pretty clouds, will the NW do it's own thang once again? I'm feeling it. I'm not buying into all the doom and gloom for us anyway, I reckon we're going to jag an alright wet season. Is it too early to call it as a wet cyclone season minus the cyclones? I'm thinking more tropical lows, thunderstorms etc.

     
  8. StormyLee

    StormyLee Early Days

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    I'm calling it- Damien is the one to watch out for this season LOL
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...And so it begins:
     
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  10. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    I think the IOD has resulted in drier and hotter conditions over NW Australia. The result is that the hot land mass is locally pulling against the general SE trades associated with the IOD, resulting in doldrums and sunny conditions over water near the Australian NW coast, and so warming up SSTs. Further west the SE trades are blowing strongly and keeping things cool. These winds are also removing moisture from the general region. Perhaps once the IOD breaks down the hotter landmass will result in a more intense monsoon due to this heat. So late but intense. Also we are under El Nino modoki influence which also favours late and intense monsoon activity.

    EC surface winds 8am 30/10 via windy:



    Edit: BOM IOD impact page only shows impacts up to Oct-Dec, with rainfall impacts clearly reducing but still evident for this period. Interesting that rainfall is enhanced in NW, but sparse rainfall during that time of year may make the data unreliable. There is also the issue of el nino/+ve IOD often occurring at the same time so NE Qld impacts may be ENSO and not IOD.

     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whilst nothing new, the shear vacancy of cloud in the West & North West is quite exceptional for NOV, in this Sat image tonight:
     
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  12. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Not strictly in Australia's TC AOR so not sure if it belongs in this thread.
    But certainly does not belong the in NH TC thread.
    Anyway - TC activity near Vanuatu in the next few days ?

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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