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Cyclone 19/20 Australian Monsoon & TC Season Thread

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC animation.

     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    She's looking a bit worse for wear.
    11/2 0930 UTC (~1 hour ago)
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest JTWC Bulletin remark:
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks better for NSW

    [​IMG]
     
  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    JTWC is being generous this is not a cane now. The system is very sheared and has filled in now. And it will only get worse.

    20200212.0440.himawari-8.ircolor.15P.UESI.70kts.976mb.22.6S.162.5E.100pc.jpg 20200212.0442.f15.85h.15P.UESI.70kts.976mb.22.6S.162.5E.080pc.jpg



    That's the naked truth.
     
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  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Nice sat-pic of the collapse.
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    Lord Howe Island direct hit, although it might not quite be a cyclone by this stage.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    HRWF has LHI coping just fine.
    40 knots sustained 10pm tonight - A mere ECL sneeze.


    Wind gusts nudging 100km/h in the last hour.
    7mm in the can suggest it's a Tasman fizzer.
     
  9. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EPS ens hinting there maybe a chance for a GOC system.

    eps_tropcyc_prob_20_globe_192.png eps_mslp_rings_ausnz_240.png








    There maybe a passing
    equatorial rossby wave travelling @ 20-26th roughly to seed thinks cfs. No solid modelling atm just a hint.
     
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  11. Rainy Days

    Rainy Days First Runs

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    Not sure how reliable old mate AccessG is, but anyway.....something definitely worth keeping an eye on.
     
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  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12z's
    A-G tight deep system. OCF forecasts still to come in.
    precip--mslp,__precip_GoC_t15_00-234-2020021412z (1).png





    Peek 2020-02-15 10-10.gif xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2020021412_240_1538_828 (1).png

    EC @ 22nd






    Worth watching the trends. If it forms it may bounce around in the GOC.
     
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  14. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah there is definitely an increasing signal for the GoC starting to show up in that 6-10 day period. Timing of this development will likely have big consequences in regards to where any potential development might end up with troughing/an upper low over eastern Australia wanting to drag the system SE in the shorter term, however any delay in development might see ridging fill in and shunt it off to the W or SW.

    Complex as is usually the case in the gulf!

    EC ensemble.



    A few clips from the TC last weekend in WA, windy stuff from about 1:30 (play in 4K if possible)



    Eyewall.

     
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  15. Rainy Days

    Rainy Days First Runs

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    Awesome STC Damien footage Orebound! Thank you for sharing here.:)
     
  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    A speed gun on the sheet of tin would have been interesting.When it past hard @503...507 on the vid.
     
    #466 stormkite2000, Feb 15, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2020
  17. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great footage:thumbs: I've never experienced a direct from a cyclone be near enough to yes. Thankfully like this one it happened in daylight hours.
     
  18. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks guys.

    Continued interest from the models in a gulf development by next weekend with a large spread in solutions as one would expect at this range. Trends do however appear to be towards a track to SW in the longer term if the system develops sufficiently to feel the mid-level steering influences.

    EC is depicting a reasonably strong TC in the southern gulf late next weekend, it's ensemble is similar. Other model solutions keep the system further north before tracking it west early next week.





    ICON along the same lines as Euro.

     
  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Past few runs Access-G has shifted NW and in a big way. As always ec holds the most weight 'but'.
    precip--mslp,__precip_GoC_t09_00-228-2020021412z.png precip--mslp,__precip_GoC_t09_00-180-2020021512z.png IDY20002.mslp-precip.168.png Selection_011.png
    P1.12Z P2.12




    Sunday 23
    PWG in house ncep based proprietary.
     
  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS 00Z... centre island
     
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  21. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah Euro is poking around in that same area too I see. Long way off but trends look similar across most models.

     
  22. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The other system near Fiji is forecast to be some nice swirly thing. 967!!!!
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not too much change this morning in modelling for this upcoming GoC system with the exception of the GFS which is somewhat delayed in development and therefore misses any trough influence trying to pull the cyclone south and thus continues on a westward track. Mid-level ridging in the longer term looks pretty staunch as is depicted in the EC operational that drives the system well west and close to exiting the Kimberley coast by day 10.

    ECMWF



    AXS-G



    ICON



    GFS



    Euro tracking well west via its operational.

     
  24. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EPS has a weakness in the ridge @144hr that quickly builds back in trapping the broad system in limbo. Atleast until the next trough push's though. Rain bomb?

    14-km EPS Global Australia & NZ 500 hPa Height Anom.gif
     
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  25. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes there is actually some very tight agreement between reliable models for a system tracking towards the weakness over the weekend, how quickly the STR rebuilds will obviously be dependent on just how amplified the passing trough is. I haven't seen too many models suggesting it will be amplified enough to actually capture the system however. Next ridge looks like it could give the system a fair shove west as a significant inland rain maker.

    UKMET going with a similar solution.

     
  26. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    stop stealing our monsoon tyvm.
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I might have guessed. Of course a cyclone might just appear when we lock in our new tropical data collection flights!!
    I just hope it doesn't transition across to the NW as fast as EC expects it!
     
  28. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    OCF consensus run precip. Gove getting a decent drop of rain as the system bushes by.




     

    Attached Files:

  29. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  30. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry mate, I'm guessing you probably don't want to see at 00z Euro run then! ;)

    Top End monsoon mayhem :thumbs:

     
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  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Indeed that's one hell of a water bomb right there if it totals verify. Social impacts.
     
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  32. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    GFS (albeit the fanciful model it can sometimes be) has a “pregnant” stall in the later part of its 00z run.
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm not putting any store on it at 384 hours, but GFS has another significant low heading to the eastern seaboard.

    [​IMG]
     
  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Ukmet the contour of land aiding in wrapping the modelled tc as rollz with its toes in the drink.
     
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  35. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meanwhile the GFS is doing GFS things o_O



    Euro a little more restrained.

     
  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  37. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC 00z Ukmet /usually a better modelS than the GFS thinks it's still on UK.Wants a piece of Gove



    00Z ec
     
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  38. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I've always been more than happy to ignore GFS beyond 3 or 4 days myself when it comes to TC genesis, the ensemble is still fairly tightly clustered with the rest down in the SW gulf early next week. There is however a bit of an upper low showing up in western QLD that may try to influence steer so I certainly wouldn't call it a done deal just yet however.

    Euro ensemble.



    GFS ensemble.



    UKMET has a similar theme to EC in the longer term with an inland rain bomb over the NT.



    EC Precip.

     
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  39. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah i see the ec is washing that upper-level low out. Heights not dropping. Think atm the GFS will come back onboard. Icon use's a GFS core in the model it will likely side with the GFS.

    Interesting time's ahead.
     
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  40. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah in its usual subtle way LOL

     
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  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Last run bom consensus precip. Same outcome system going west inland.
     
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  42. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah there does appear to be a reasonable consensus among the more reliable models for some sort of system tracking into the SW gulf with the exception of the GFS deterministic which continues to initialize further east, though its ensemble is still very much focused in the SW gulf like the others. Obviously initialization anywhere along the vorticity belt is possible so a GFS type solution cannot be entirely dismissed though it is currently very much an outlier solution. Whether or not we are talking about a significant TC or more of a monsoon low type thing remains to be seen and is obviously going to be dependent on if/where any system initializes.

    Maybe in WA long term? ;) LOL

    EC ensemble.



    GFS ensemble.



    UKMET



    ICON



    AXS.



    EC Hires still suggesting quite a significant rain event for the NT over the next week or so.

     
  43. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    One thing we do have some agreement on - when the low (then potential cyclone) will start developing...which looks to be Friday or Saturday. Once we get the initial location fed into the models then, fingers crossed, we'll see more consistency (with a likely westward movement) with the movement of the system. Until then it's wait and see...though great to see such consistency between models (starting at a decent lead time as well) that something will develop. Massive improvement in models over recent years.
     
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  44. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS the only model that will go against it's ens. Tossing the inconstant intermittent deterministic east bias run's myself. :)

     
    #495 stormkite2000, Feb 19, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2020
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  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    OCF 00Z came in as previous runs with the constant west track. Worth noting its a blended bias corrected model.




     
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  46. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the deterministic has certainly been fairly erratic in comparison to the ensemble which has been locked on to a similar solution for several days now.

    Latest operational however has a TC approaching the SW gulf coast by day 6 in line with most other guidance.

     
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  47. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tropical Cyclone Outlook
    IDD10610

    Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
    Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 19 February 2020
    for the period until midnight CST Saturday 22 February 2020.

    Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
    Nil.

    Potential Cyclones:



    A monsoon trough is expected to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria as a westerly surge develops through the Arafura Sea. A tropical low is likely to form within the monsoon trough on Thursday or Friday. During the weekend, the tropical low is expected to develop quickly with an increasing risk of tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Carpentaria from later Saturday. Initial movement of the tropical low will likely be slow and erratic before moving in a general south to southwest direction towards the southern parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria later in the weekend.


    Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

    Thursday: Very Low.

    Friday: Very Low.

    Saturday: Moderate.
     
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  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah nice run that the 00z i liked the the expanding cdo filling the GOC. Let's see if it can show some consistency over one full day.

     
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  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The ec 12z big moisture feed into the system. Still organising as it moves over land.

     
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