Cyclone 19/20 Australian Monsoon & TC Season Thread

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Oct 11, 2019.

  1. youcantbecirrus

    youcantbecirrus First Runs

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    Wind shear in the area dipping off to almost nothing


    Looks like soup off the coast... Cyclone soup anyone?

     
  2. Tasmanian Devil

    Tasmanian Devil Hard Yards

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    Townsville Bulletin reporting that Cyclone Gretel is a chance to impact Townsville next weekend
     
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  3. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Check the cmc 00z. Media frenzy scenario right there.
     
  4. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well that’s jinxed the thing hasn’t it?
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Determs 12Z puts a cat 5 Gretel on the table, this morning.
    EC not overly interested.
    The Candian doesn't mind it.

    Bit far out yet.
     
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  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah the Canuck 12Z building the ridge back in under the model tc.








    18z GFS The model tc gets captured by the incoming trough tasman cold front and goe's ots.





     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to see some agreement between models to have the low (in it’s infancy stage) move through the GoC and onto the Coral Sea.

    All 3 major determs like this scenario this evening.
    EC ensembles favours this outcome also.
    All out to sea if this was to be believed.
     
  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah there is alot still on the table to be worked out with this model storm.
     
  9. Orebound

    Orebound Storm Tourist Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I notice the GFS ensemble is leaning a bunch of its members into the gulf and then westward in contradiction to the fv3 deterministic.

     
  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC also like's a ts or a entry level hurricane for the NW. Been showing it on eps for a few runs.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saw that.
    Looks like it would beat the Coral Sea system to being named too.
     
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  12. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it comes and goes and GFS was having none of it ... once the 06Z GFS run is up will see if it exists then
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing much there on 06z.
    Benign trof, at best.
     
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  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    CMC 00z ens was all over NW as well. The anom @850 is the system. Of cause it would come down to the conditions ie shear when the depression does form as to how it performs down stream.












     
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  15. Tasmanian Devil

    Tasmanian Devil Hard Yards

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    I'm very much a rookie when it comes to analysing cyclones but looking at the latest GFS model despite being offshore the potential Coral Sea cyclone looks slow moving and high intensity? Have I got that right?
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a fair way out.
    It is however trending toward a decent intensity.
    Dunno about it lingering though as it gets going out to sea pretty much straight away.
     
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  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    It extists. Sorta think it's can it get into a sweet spot. Decent wwb. GFS deterministic is notorious for running the wipers run to run in the tropics always has.

    850MB

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-230.97,-15.94,911/loc=97.427,-11.639


    SURFACE level


    https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...raphic=-230.97,-15.94,911/loc=100.527,-17.520
     
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  18. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    The little low that could?





     
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  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Definite possibility that could happen.






     
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  20. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    Wind shear dropping off much faster than forecasts were looking at just a day or two ago there. It was looking pretty yucky for anything that would try to spin up.
     
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  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Had look on the navy site. They had tagged it to.
     
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  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Hadley cell will bring warmish days over a lot of the country thinks GFS. Good for the monsoon.
     
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  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GOC lpa is being tracked as.

    95P INVEST 200309 0000 11.4S 136.5E SHEM 15
     
  24. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Some good work by one off my twitter friends. Personally i cant wait for this weak season to be over and the N-H to start ramping up. Hoping it can end with bang.
     
  25. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    page 13





    [​IMG]

    Pretty good lengthy modeling by the cmc with the cold front.
     

    Attached Files:

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  26. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    BOM industry update for our baby low in WA:



    Forecast Commentary
    A weak tropical low was located near 12.1S 115.7E at 8am WST Tuesday, about 280 kilometres south of Denpasar (Bali). Recent movement has been towards the southeast, but later today it is forecast to start moving steadily south towards the northwest of Western Australia. Environmental conditions aren't favourable for significant development of this system, with dry air to the south and winds in the upper atmosphere expected to strengthen over the top of the system as it moves towards the south. However, there is some model guidance that indicates the risk of a very small system developing, with enhanced winds on the southern and eastern flanks.
    Even if the system fails to develop into a tropical cyclone, there is a risk of gales developing over the southeastern quadrant of the system as it approaches the coast, and this is represented in the forecast track.


    I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a weak little system that just spreads some more rain around. Not much potential for anything more, but the stronger it gets the more localised the rainfall will be. Come onnnnnn blobby!

     
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  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Not here suggesting this system will. Remember that N-H hurricane 2005 wilma. Intensified into a major c3 whilst having 40kts of shear over it. The jet it was venting into was screaming @120kts off setting and negated the affect shear over the storm.
     
  28. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    The dry air may still be an issue though.
     
  29. Jaeger

    Jaeger Early Days

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    Wow - the way the some media is talking, "TC Gretel" is already bearing down on Townsville. (BoM: "What cyclone?")

    Tropical Tidbits had both 95P and 96P with near identical tracks, but 96P appears to have won. It's still unclear if it's heading for Northlands, NZ, or out into the Pacific.

    94S looks like it will scrape the NW WA coast.
     
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  30. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    LOLLOLLOL
     
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  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Would nice to be able to track this overnight on radar. Thinking it will likely form after the sun goes down.



    Small centre this one.
    Those are very tall storms on the south side that should wrap into the centre.




    Nice moisture envelope.





     
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  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    A blank canvas. Yeah right can see the bands.




    Not sure about what they been looking @.

     
  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Some consolation apparently JT was seein it to.

    Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTXS21
    Issued at 10/1600Z



    The over shooting tops are evident on the satic.

     
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  34. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    Heading into some pretty feral conditions, limited time for development.



     
  35. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Been waiting on a ascat sample for 94. Finally got one Clear cut 40kt tc Was a un-warned tc.
    NW should have got the name on this alone.


     
    #686 stormkite2000, Mar 11, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
  37. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    Central pressure never really got low enough, dry air is starting to wrap in from the western flank now as well. Toast.

    12hrs ago:


    Now:


    He dead.
     
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  38. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah it's gone down hill now. The point was it was classifiable as a tc. Pressure wise do you have any reliable data ie buoy or other to suggest the pressure never dropped. Ascat is a pretty reliable scientific tool for assessment. :)
    Pressure tends to drop with the wind speed. Its moot now but that's how i see it.


    BTW those plots are subjective and are not reliable for accurate estimates.
    https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=sh942020
     
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  39. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    I have this from BOM:


    And ASCAT only showed about 50kn max as well, which just scrapes in under 100km winds, plus it was only on the SE flank.
     
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  40. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    I never seen any 50kt barbs on the sample. But yeah if there was cyclonic gales to 50kts that would make for even a strong case for naming a minimal ts. 35kts sustained is the benchmark. To have upto 50kt gales you will surely find 35kt around the centre. That last GOC storm was named when it had a much weaker ascat sample 30kt max. Its horse's for course's.

    Perhaps cc's guys or gal can do some recon to clear up the grey area for the bom.


    A
    d
    d
    e
    d


    10TH

     
  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Coral sea model storm. Maybe of some interest to surfers along the east-coast when the ground swells eventually push though. Other than that looks a fish.








    See you guys when the NH starts firing.
     
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  42. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR TWENTYONE (21S) 2020
    CURRENT ESTIMATE
    Date (mmddhhmm): 03111329
    SATCON: MSLP = 1003 hPa MSW = 43 knots
    SATCON Member Consensus: 42.0 knots
    Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 45 knots
    Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 135 nm
    Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA



    Tropical Cyclone 21S (Twentyone) Warning #03 Final Warning




    Issued at 11/2100Z


    Just tidying up loose ends.
     
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  44. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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  45. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Tropical Low
    Issued at 11:12 am AEST Saturday 14 March 2020. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.
    [​IMG]
     
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  46. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    Longggggggggg way out, but GFS has been clinging onto this for a couple days now:

     
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  47. StormyLee

    StormyLee Addicted

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    In a world consumed by Covid discussion - lets take a moment to appreciate that there may yet be one last burst of activity in the 2019/2020 cyclone season :)

    GFS is keen



    And possibly a little visit from our MJO friend

     
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  48. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Significant change in GFS possible NW Aus TC forecast from last nights 12z run to this mornings 18z run.
    Typical GFS style - going for a 930hpa min pressure at the landfall point. LOL - see what the next run brings.
     
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  49. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    EC00z ensemble prediction for TS within 48hrs.
     
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  50. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Windy shows what looks to be reasonably big cyclone hitting Nhulunbuy Sunday week Hmmm.